ACUS11 KWNS 180037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180037=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-180130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0462
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Areas affected...far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 141...

Valid 180037Z - 180130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 141 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat will be maximized over the next hour
across far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa

DISCUSSION...Two strong, mature supercells with a history of 2 to
2.75 inch hail, wind gusts up to 82 mph and a few tornadoes,
continue east this evening. The tornado threat has increased
substantially over the past hour as the low-level jet has
strengthened from 35 to 45 knots (per TWX VWP). This low-level jet
will strengthen further this evening which will lead to continually
increasing low-level shear. However, the boundary layer will start
to cool rapidly as the sun sets which should eventually limit the
tornado threat. Therefore, the combination of sufficient surface
based instability and increasing low-level shear should lead to a
favorable (~1 hour) window for a continued tornado threat, before
the threat transitions to primarily large hail and severe wind gusts
later this evening.=20

An additional watch/watch extension may be needed later this
evening.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7UDmalHKis4-WPfrrwxrmmE607OZb7CYj5j6BuGh44GgDr4cabx6qIqb14HmFd9gcJqjvDBG4= rPy380Yp2C1rqapGiE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...

LAT...LON 40819641 41249598 41499575 41609523 41289470 40849481
40679558 40689627 40819641=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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