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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0461

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 17 22:57:33 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 172257
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172256=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-180100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0461
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0556 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota into Northwest Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 140...

    Valid 172256Z - 180100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 140
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms in southeast Minnesota will pose a short-term
    threat for small to marginally severe hail and perhaps isolated wind
    damage. Additional development, though not certain, is possible in
    Northwest Iowa. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main
    threat in that area.

    DISCUSSION...A line of storms south of the Twin Cities will continue
    eastward. This line has shown a weakening trend over the last hour
    as it has encountered cooler/drier air. Isolated wind damage and
    small to marginally sever hail could occur with this activity, but a
    continued downward trend in intensity is expected.

    A small zone of greater surface heating ahead of the cold front is
    situated in northwest Iowa. As an upstream shortwave perturbation
    moves towards the area this evening, modestly increasing frontal
    convergence and mid-level ascent could promote an additional storm
    or two within this zone. Should storms form here, steep mid-level
    lapse rates and 40 kts of effective shear will support large hail
    and damaging wind potential.

    ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!68vtn7d_HHkSI-f6hPW74sor-6NkZoOigkDMKiMUf7yofT5YDhlKWOQbYFjyoAU8VyLxwwYgs= tVX_z2Ctlm_19FkBbE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 42299536 42279594 42319622 42489614 42889588 43759492
    44189462 44449410 44539336 44269239 43779237 42819424
    42399481 42299536=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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