ACUS11 KWNS 162049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162049=20
KSZ000-162315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0454
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Areas affected...parts of swrn into s cntrl KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 162049Z - 162315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two may evolve from initially
high-based thunderstorm development by 6-7 PM CDT, posing primarily
a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.

DISCUSSION...As boundary-layer heating and mixing continues,
deepening high-based convective development is ongoing in a corridor
near/north of the Raton Mesa vicinity into southwestern Kansas.=20
This appears focused downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation,
which is progressing toward the crest of large-scale mid-level
ridging across the southern Rockies through southern Great Plains.=20
With continuing insolation, this convective development is likely to
persist and gradually spread northeastward and eastward with the
supporting large-scale forcing for ascent.=20=20

Strongest boundary-layer heating appears focused northwest of the
Dalhart TX toward Dodge City KS vicinity, where surface dew points
remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s F. However, more substantive
moistening is ongoing farther east, including a corridor across the
Medicine Lodge toward Great Bend KS vicinities, where dew points may
continue to increase into and through the lower mid 50s F, as
southerly low-level flow strengthens through 23-00Z. It appears
that this may contribute mixed-layer CAPE increasing to the order of
1000 J/kg.

In the presence of lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, the
boundary-layer destabilization may largely remain suppressed by
warming, elevated mixed-layer air. However, the eventual
intensification of initially high-based convection overspreading the
region appears at least possible later this afternoon, particularly
near/east of the Dodge City vicinity, aided by inflow of the
potentially more unstable air. If this becomes sustained, shear
beneath moderate to strong westerly mid/upper flow appears more than
sufficient to support the evolution an isolated boundary-layer based
supercell or two, primarily posing a risk for severe hail and
locally strong surface gusts.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8sFUYEEvbP12AYjgJoYeb6iOAMsfDhqcpLkAQSKkclF-M9QL5QJkQUplqE9cG6Q_BEjR-mnSR= rP8ZDrDF_diGEalPU4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON 38120106 38779896 38019788 37259826 37080128 38120106=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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