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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0452

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 15 00:40:58 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 150040
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150040=20
    VAZ000-WVZ000-150215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0452
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0740 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

    Areas affected...Northern and central Virginia

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 139...

    Valid 150040Z - 150215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 139
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The primary corridor for large hail and damaging winds
    will exist along the southern edge of WW 139 in central Virginia.
    Farther north, isolated strong/damaging winds remain possible.

    DISCUSSION...The primary corridor of severe risk will likely be
    within parts of central Virginia this evening. A supercell currently
    in Nelson County will be capable of large hail and damaging winds.
    This lead supercell has shown a tendency to move more east-northeast
    the last half hour, suggesting it may be transitioning to being
    slightly elevated. Even so, MRMS data suggests large hail is
    occurring. Other strong to severe storms are training behind the
    lead supercell and will also pose a threat for large hail and
    damaging winds.

    In northern Virginia, temperatures have diabatically cooled as broad
    area of precipitation has overspread the area. Some elevated
    instability still remains and the KRLX VAD showed 35-45 kts of flow
    behind the passing convection. With the Dulles 00Z observed sounding
    showing 7 C/km lapse rates and a dry sub-cloud layer, a
    strong/damaging gust could still occur where any convective cores
    develop.

    ..Wendt.. 04/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9r1Cfypls3w49C9hmnIsZpNO6hoJ-7QynltBpMRAkA-fnp50uDuc0-CMjS9yzewrAnrxZ-ZpS= a7WNhD6DwqFsOq9lNg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 37828011 38817934 39067924 39127892 38897781 38797749
    38417729 37537725 37427730 37307752 37207799 37237843
    37658017 37828011=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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