ACUS11 KWNS 142130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142130=20
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-142300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0449
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Areas affected...central and eastern Kentucky...far southern
Ohio...and West Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138...

Valid 142130Z - 142300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138
continues.

SUMMARY...Multiple supercells capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts will persist this evening.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells has developed across southern
Ohio with multiple large hail reports received thus far. The
strongest of these cells is a lead supercell approaching Charleston,
WV as of 2130 UTC. This supercell has a history of 2 inch hail and
latest MRMS data suggests 2+ inch hail (perhaps the size of
baseballs) remains possible. The environment downstream of this
supercell remains favorable with 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 45 to 50
knots of shear and visible satellite showing an expansive agitated
cumulus field. Therefore, expect this 2+ inch hail threat to persist
for at least a few more hours across West Virginia.

Thunderstorm activity has been limited south of the Ohio River thus
far, and visible satellite imagery does not appear to indicate
additional thunderstorms are imminent. However, the environment
remains uncapped and as mid-level temperatures continue to cool,
some thunderstorms will be possible along the front this evening.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 04/14/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9FFWXpxW6wwIu6A-8mqRAN5DYKt-MSMqbjEcWtZQg8f8aunRVpEmDmnP_hXB5nDhCHxTVJL0L= nIz_FeEGR6dW9JDwJo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 38908503 39378376 39618195 39728086 39457988 38847949
37627973 37048123 36998290 36878407 37048569 37998560
38908503=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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