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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0441

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 10 19:57:52 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 101956
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101956=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-102230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0441
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0256 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

    Areas affected...primarily from northern Mississippi into central
    and northern Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 101956Z - 102230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop later this afternoon and
    evening, with large hail and localized damaging gusts likely.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a boundary/wind shift moving
    south across AR and toward the MS River. Ahead of this boundary,
    west/southwest winds are helping to maintain a plume of mid 50s F
    dewpoints which now extend into AL. Meanwhile, strong heating
    continues.

    The southerly periphery of the midlevel cooling is evident on
    visible imagery, indicated by the CU fields from northeast AR into
    TN. As this cooling aloft rapidly pushes southeast, corridors of
    thunderstorm development are expected. The combination of strong
    cooling aloft overspreading the surface theta-e plume should result
    in corridors of severe storms. Long hodographs, cold temperatures
    aloft, and favorable time of day coincident with peak heating will
    favor both large hail and localized wind damage. Isolated
    significant hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells.

    ..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/10/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Qmhn832Bx43yNJl3HVih4z3IrQ-_JHKXcLiZ8C2PoETlk9fKZHRgZEoItACv_9ge_JLR593m= kj3tWYzcHQZuTReXww$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33088987 33809069 34479082 34899082 35159058 35249007
    35078922 34958795 34788597 34648553 34198505 33378491
    32868515 32548548 32378640 32578804 33088987=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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