ACUS11 KWNS 062319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062318=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-070115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Areas affected...Parts of south and central AL into the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 062318Z - 070115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind and/or a tornado
may persist through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Despite rich boundary-layer moisture and the presence
of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, convection has struggled to remain
organized across parts of AL early this evening, possibly due to
generally weak lapse rates and some tendency for storms to be
undercut by outflow. However, deep-layer shear remains favorable for
organized convection, and a persistent 30-40 kt low-level jet is
supporting some enhancement to low-level shear/SRH. One cell near
Montgomery has recently intensified near an outflow boundary, while
an occasionally strong storm cluster persists near/east of Mobile.
There remains some potential for a few cells or clusters to acquire
at least transient organization through the evening, and pose a
threat for locally damaging wind and/or a tornado.=20

Given the longer-term trends, new watch issuance in the short term
is considered unlikely. However, if trends begin to support more
organized upscale growth or sustained rotating cells, then watch
issuance may become possible.

..Dean/Hart.. 04/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9vYSXvgEaT1SpldPN-seBcIZbdaffJOx6yfDqziV453JCAS24bEgy8nolEId_aYMM14cUb_D6= D-cdx2rGMpawRuGIVI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 30188865 30978805 31318785 33128643 33208584 33098545
32018539 31618549 31298574 30918610 30708663 30458718
30188865=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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