ACUS11 KWNS 061235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061234=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-061430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0425
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Areas affected...parts of sern MS through cntrl AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 131...

Valid 061234Z - 061430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 131 continues.

SUMMARY...Convection may continue to undergo further organization
and intensification through 9-10 AM CDT, accompanied by increasing
risk for strong surface gusts, and a continuing risk for tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...At least a bit broader, lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation appears to be evolving, perhaps including a surface
meso-low now migrating east-northeastward into/across the Demopolis
AL vicinity. Latest Rapid Refresh now indicates a more prominent south-southwesterly speed maximum associated with this feature,
including 50+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Although moisture
characterized by mid 60s+ surface dew points across central Alabama,
between Montgomery and Birmingham still appear to supporting only
modest CAPE (around 500 J/kg sampled in 12Z BMX sounding), low-level
moisture advection and at least some boundary layer warming are
likely to contribute to further destabilization in advance of the
convection during the next few hours. Inflow of this air mass may
be sufficient to support at least a gradual further intensification
of activity during the next few hours, accompanied by increasing
potential for strong surface gusts and a few tornadoes.=20

Discrete thunderstorm development is also being maintained near/just
ahead of the southern flank of the evolving convective system, and
the occasional intensification of these cells, before merging into
the line, may also be accompanied by increasing potential for a
tornado near the Selma/Montgomery vicinities through mid morning.

..Kerr.. 04/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!69AEU1kj6mWunShRb_Um2knLUBk8L0NfZOrxnXHnPbDxIHvuBCrHvd8u8QCbaH6euMMPXmtLs= VxoUaNrJ-B7YTcVSNA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 33198688 33358539 32058702 31338798 31068892 32338827
33198688=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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