ACUS11 KWNS 060140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060139=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-060315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0839 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...Extreme southeast TX into northern LA...western
MS...and extreme southeast AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 123...125...127...

Valid 060139Z - 060315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 123, 125, 127 continues.

SUMMARY...Some tornado and damaging-wind threat will persist into
late evening.

DISCUSSION...Despite the presence of favorable buoyancy (with MLCAPE
of 1500-2500 J/kg) and strong deep-layer shear, convection has
struggled to organize this evening from the Sabine into the lower MS
Valleys, likely due to warm temperatures aloft and very weak
midlevel lapse rates, as observed on the 00Z JAN/LCH/LIX soundings.
However, those soundings also depict rich boundary-layer moisture
and strong low-level shear/SRH, resulting in a conditionally
favorable tornadic supercell environment.=20

It remains uncertain if any supercells can mature and stay
along/ahead of an outflow-reinforced front into late evening.
However, any increase in storm organization would result in a
corresponding increase in the tornado and damaging-wind threat. Even
if supercells struggle to mature, there will be some potential for
one or more upscale-growing clusters to develop with time, which
could pose an increasing threat of damaging wind. With the severe
threat expected to develop east of the current watches with time,
new watch issuance and/or local watch extension may eventually be
needed.

..Dean/Hart.. 04/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-zyKQF6MYvPNzSoPu3rAc_it8P-oVWAliPngvsEMvpTOaYNwwZXmr3s7JOMeQz-LmI4KGbisq= GwuUUH30kzaok0ufaU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30149424 32229263 33079156 33679043 33648982 33278977
32429025 31529090 31069132 30639190 30489259 30389292
30149424=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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