ACUS11 KWNS 052014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052014=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-052215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0416
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...far northeast Louisiana...northern Mississippi and
northwest Alabama.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 122...

Valid 052014Z - 052215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122 continues.

SUMMARY...A line of storms with embedded supercells continues across
eastern portions of watch 122. A downstream tornado watch will
eventually be needed across northeast Louisiana, northern/central
Mississippi and northwest Alabama.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms with embedded supercells is slowly
drifting east near the Arkansas/Mississippi border. SPC mesoanalysis
shows 2500 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of this activity with 50 to 60 knots of
effective shear. This will support a continued threat for supercells
capable of all severe weather hazards. The JAN VWP currently shows a
relatively straight low-level hodograph where deeper mixing has
occurred. However, winds have remained more backed across northern
Mississippi where some sheltering from upper-level clouds has
occurred. Expect low-level shear to strengthen later this evening as
the low-level jet intensifies closer to 00Z. This cluster of
supercells across southeast Arkansas may eventually congeal into
another bowing segment across northern Mississippi with an increased
severe wind threat this afternoon.=20

In addition, scattered showers have developed across central
Mississippi within the unstable, uncapped airmass. Most of the
activity has not had any lightning, indicating it is relatively
shallow within the deep moist layer shown by the 12Z JAN RAOB.
Recently some lightning has been observed with the deeper storms
across eastern Mississippi. It is still unclear whether this
activity will congeal into one more more supercells this
afternoon/evening. If a mature supercell can develop, the
environment would support all severe weather hazards including the
potential for a strong tornado.

A tornado watch will eventually be needed for this region by late
this afternoon to early evening for the storms moving out of
northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. However, if the storms
across central/eastern Mississippi continue to deepen/mature, a
tornado watch may be needed sooner.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8xbG1BMxRQF0gdvWo9cNWqwV2Tks6jiX3F5UIIem53jJ0L2NFx__tYdc8sFF8VCLL4oEy0ANY= 96TYxzlexHybK2RN1g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 32989155 34179118 34829040 35038964 34988798 34688746
33498739 32758785 32288895 32288989 32209110 32399163
32989155=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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