ACUS11 KWNS 051938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051937=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-052100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of southeast Texas into Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 123...

Valid 051937Z - 052100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 123 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail remain possible
across WW123.

DISCUSSION...As of 1935 UTC, scattered thunderstorms have initiated
and are maturing along a line roughly from HOU to SHV. While storms
have been slow to organize, recent CAPPI and Echo tops show
increasing core heights with time. Mid-level rotation has also
increased, signaling further intensification is likely over the
coming hours. The environment ahead of these cells is very moist and
strongly unstable with low 70s F dewpoints contributing to upwards
of 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Effective shear of 45-50 kt from the 18z LCH
sounding will continue to support supercells as flow aloft
strengthens through the afternoon.

Radar and HRRR trends suggest storms will continue to gradually
intensify this afternoon with an associated severe risk. Some
consolidation into a linear cluster also appears likely as the cold front/composite outflow boundary to the west has begun to increase
in forward speed. The strong mid-level shear will still favor
semi-discrete embedded elements with a risk for all hazards.
Additionally, weak convection along a pre-frontal confluence axis
may eventually support an isolated storm ahead of the cluster. Given
the broadly favorable environment and the gradual increase in
intensity, the severe risk continues across much of WW123.

..Lyons.. 04/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ozfhhR65INgHGU7ZspHGlAxreBKruXwrT7Xb3gQfo7S4J9G9ckKXDpiEglJ1DnRmrVJSWLpj= 5-MdhIN08S5uFR7aVU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 29449585 30919502 31659385 31759290 31309267 29839391
29219511 29449585=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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