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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0411

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 5 16:36:30 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 051636
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051636=20
    TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-051830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0411
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1136 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

    Areas affected...central Arkansas to southwest Tennessee and far
    northwest Mississippi

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 122...

    Valid 051636Z - 051830Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122 continues.

    SUMMARY...A focused severe wind threat is developing across central
    Arkansas toward western Tennessee with the potential for winds in
    excess of 80 mph.

    DISCUSSION...A bowing line segment has developed along the frontal zone/composite outflow in central Arkansas with a recent measured
    wind gust of 58 knots at KORK at 1615 UTC. In addition, a well
    organized rear-inflow jet is being sampled by the KLZK WSR-88D. The
    airmass south of this boundary continues to destabilize with further destabilization to 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE expected by early
    afternoon. Expect this bow to traverse along this frontal/outflow
    zone through the afternoon. In addition to current
    radar/observational trends which support this corridor of a higher
    wind threat, the 15Z WoFS also highlights this corridor early this
    afternoon with 90th percentile wind gusts around 65 knots across
    southwest Tennessee.=20

    In addition to the severe wind threat (which will exist on both
    sides of the boundary), a tornado threat will also exist south of
    this boundary, although line orientation may not be as favorable
    based on current WSR-88D depiction from KLZK. The greatest tornado
    threat will likely exist along the boundary where low-level
    vorticity will be enhanced.

    ..Bentley.. 04/05/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8n3zG_ZIuezae-vXx4spCiC17xHDCESJBzQtupYxzm9P7jQkyMCx2rpOxTCZHUcT3df8wZGev= 5TpQbex1dlqu4QWDnQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 34329196 34479226 34759231 34909237 35399073 35558990
    35408958 35238953 35058963 34888987 34619058 34329196=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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