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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0410

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 5 15:07:02 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 051506
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051506=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-051730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0410
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1006 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 051506Z - 051730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe weather threat is increasing across southeast
    Texas this morning and will continue to increase into southwest
    Louisiana by this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A moist, uncapped airmass is in place across east Texas
    and Louisiana ahead of a strong frontal boundary. Extensive
    stratocumulus is in place this morning south of the front, but it is
    expected to thin through the morning with strong surface heating and destabilization expected by mid-day. As this occurs, more robust
    convective development is expected along the front in east Texas.
    Strong deep-layer shear and this strong instability should support
    the potential for supercells with a threat for all severe hazards
    including strong tornadoes. Despite the uncapped warm-sector, expect
    open warm sector storm development to be minimal given the warm
    800-650mb temperatures sampled by the SHV and LCH 12Z RAOBs with
    primary storm development along and near the front where forcing is
    maximized. Deep layer flow parallel to this front may result in a
    messy storm mode, but the environment should support embedded
    supercells capable of large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes
    (some which could be strong).

    ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/05/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6XFAvvFEP2y-EeL9LhiTe3F8GhF46PKrB5DCllDvc88IQZV3E1ekx5iXtK65DtHRMBcv2jvrY= -om8nYarlKH2bk73NI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...

    LAT...LON 30729564 31209503 31249439 31209341 30919270 30459265
    29829277 29649292 29679322 29709350 29659383 29429460
    29109499 28879527 28439616 28669648 29129660 29599637
    30309595 30729564=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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