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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0405

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 5 04:35:29 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 050435
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050435=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-050630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0405
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1135 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

    Areas affected...Western/central Kentucky and far southern Indiana

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 120...

    Valid 050435Z - 050630Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 120 continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind/tornado potential will continue, at least on
    isolated basis, mainly across western Kentucky into the overnight,
    and possibly east-northeastward into parts of central Kentucky/far
    southern Indiana. Tornado Watch 120 continues until 4am CDT/09z, and
    downstream convective trends will continue to be monitored, although
    the need for an additional Watch is uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...Line Echo Wave Pattern (LEWP) evolution continues to
    occur with multiple bowing segments across western Kentucky into
    southwest Indiana, including one of the bow echoes preferentially
    favoring and riding along prior outflow east of the Paducah area as
    of 1130pm CDT. Near the terminus of the strong regional low-level
    jet, low-level shear is robust within this corridor with 0-1km SRH
    on the order of 250-400 m2/s2. Damaging wind along with some tornado
    potential will continue especially across western Kentucky over the
    next couple of hours. Overall storm intensity should gradually
    diminish overnight as storms progress eastward, but at least a
    lower-end damaging wind/tornado risk could breach the current
    Tornado Watch, and convective trends will continue to be monitored.

    ..Guyer.. 04/05/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9d8Ls1zoiGd2Kk3krPasJ3Q-O2uGcN5j1AcA6UeTvF8m3hqKnLkrPDlIPsIP9_BMp4Zj8e-0a= rBXeImCSCtp_W8J91I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 36428807 36528886 37008909 38008752 38368602 37918580
    37418594 37018622 36658692 36428807=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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