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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0403

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 5 03:45:52 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 050344
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050344=20
    TXZ000-050545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0403
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1044 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

    Areas affected...South-central/Central Texas including Edwards
    Plateau

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 050344Z - 050545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms including supercells
    capable of large hail, and possibly damaging winds, is expected to
    increase through late evening into the early overnight. A Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Water vapor/infrared satellite imagery is implying the
    arrival of increasing forcing for ascent into the Edwards Plateau
    vicinity this evening, with a strong consensus of
    global/convection-allowing models suggestive of vigorous storm
    development over the next few hours, generally by midnight/1am CDT.
    Along/north of the boundary across the region, steep mid-level lapse
    rates and ample elevated buoyancy (2000-3500 J/kg MUCAPE), in the
    presence of effective shear magnitudes of 50+ kt, will support
    elevated supercells capable of large hail, potentially in excess of
    2" diameter. Some damaging wind threat could also evolve as storm
    aggregation and potential bow echo development occurs, even with
    storms that are slightly elevated north of the surface boundary.

    ..Guyer/Hart.. 04/05/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7NqeI_wdD0Z-Sv6mdEpaaTlXtH-Ai5hay4zed-oEMBOTzA3gqNP_XyKO3A_prwLvsMSiCG5kM= KLw-XYQ-x2QAYkxsoA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 29920139 31240088 31689771 30349748 29039945 28940058
    29920139=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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