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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0397

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 4 20:33:33 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 042033
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042033=20
    ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-042200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0397
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0333 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

    Areas affected...Northeast TX...southeast OK...western AR

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 113...114...

    Valid 042033Z - 042200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113, 114 continues.

    SUMMARY...Maturing supercells will pose an increasing tornado threat
    this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have developed over the last hour
    across northeast TX, in the immediate vicinity of a slow-moving cold
    front that extends from southeast OK into central TX. The 18Z SHV
    sounding is representative of the environment across the region,
    with very rich low-level moisture, large to extreme MLCAPE,
    deep-layer shear sufficient for supercells, and a rather strong
    low-level jet.=20

    A corridor of increasing short-term tornado threat is evident from
    northeast TX into far southeast OK and western AR, where locally
    backed surface winds are resulting in 0-1 km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2.
    This combination of favorable buoyancy, boundary-layer moisture, and
    relatively strong low-level shear/SRH will support an increasing
    tornado threat with any sustained supercells, including significant
    (EF2+) tornado potential. Large hail and damaging winds could also
    accompany the strongest cells.

    ..Dean.. 04/04/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9by8hP1_dG1Afm933xoh_isqFZ4RjhMlCA4fXuTTxbF9Byuwt3gDaaElq-p74dgE8zuRn54ZM= f7cbzRJDhqtNgh4Fzg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

    LAT...LON 31889648 32739620 33549548 34629455 35499358 35179295
    34369299 32779455 31879567 31889648=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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