ACUS11 KWNS 030405
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030405=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-030600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...parts of wrn into middle TN...cntrl and ern
KY...srn OH...nwrn W VA...swrn PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 030405Z - 030600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe weather potential with a vigorous, organized
convective system spreading toward the Allegheny Plateau, and into
central Kentucky and middle Tennessee, may be slow to diminish
overnight. One or two additional severe weather watches might be
needed.

DISCUSSION...To the northeast of the east central Kentucky
Bluegrass, boundary-layer instability remains rather limited, and is
not expected to improve much overnight. However, the most intense
south to southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric jet core (including
60-80+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer) is in the process of shifting
northeast of the Mid South, toward the upper Ohio Valley.

Although a leading MCV has recently become more ill-defined across
western Ohio, several others continue to evolve within the the
convective system trailing southwestward into the Mid South. The
severe weather potential is probably past peak, but the risk for
potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of brief
tornadoes may be slow to diminish overnight.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/03/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6G2N7bysNKRtIyG1SEm04btNmoAa14R_TSjNn8YWNtluAvBrsmvhq1XkGZLN0DGUsSV1dJH9i= 88EweyN2IkCQnICvvI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...
MEG...

LAT...LON 39248346 40438238 40948086 40537936 38088270 36538553
35138902 39248346=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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