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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0205

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Mar 15 18:17:29 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 151817
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151816=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-151945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0205
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0116 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

    Areas affected...portions of northern Mississippi into northwestern
    Alabama

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...46...

    Valid 151816Z - 151945Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45, 46 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for tornadoes continues across northern MS into
    northwestern AL, particularly with a supercell in Montgomery County.
    Intense tornadoes (EF3+) are possible.

    DISCUSSION...A QLCS has evolved into more discrete supercells, some
    of which have become dominant relative to other convective elements
    in the area. Some of these storms have a history of tornadoes, and a
    supercell in Montgomery County, MS has a persistent mesocyclone that
    continues to intensify per KDGX and KGWX NEXRAD data. The GWX VAD
    shows an impressively large and curved hodograph, with nearly 500
    m2/s2 effective SRH in just the surface-500 m layer, with about 1000
    m2/s2 SRH in the sfc-3 km layer. As such, the ambient environment
    supports intense tornadoes (EF3+). However, this is contingent on
    storms benefiting from minimal interference by other nearby storms,
    including the absorption of smaller storms. If one of the more
    dominant storms (especially the Montgomery County storm) can obtain
    a pristine inflow environment, the chance for intense tornado
    development is high. Damaging gusts are possible, especially with
    any linear segments that materialize.

    ..Squitieri.. 03/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!569X0ZMOQ9Y98ZJjkh2NYACEKvMGFDMJZfJTnO8AmyTkWYP9uB3Be_uByVko3rMHuqwnGYno-= 023wxY4MGhDXL_cOyI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33368995 33878950 34318904 34948780 34928698 34568670
    33858716 33488837 33408862 33318894 33228937 33198963
    33368995=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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