ACUS11 KWNS 151219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151219=20
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-151345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kentucky...southern and
central Ohio...and extreme western West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151219Z - 151345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail or damaging gusts may
continue for a few more hours. The overall severe threat appears
isolated and a downstream WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms with a history of severe hail
and damaging gusts (some of which have exceeded severe limits)
continues to progress eastward as a stacked cyclone over the Great
Lakes continues to track toward Ontario. This line of storms
(especially the southern portion) continues to effectively transport
stronger flow aloft to the surface, with 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse
rates likely supporting continuing severe hail production. However,
this line of storms is approaching the eastern bounds of what is
already scant buoyancy (characterized by 200 J/kg MUCAPE per the 12Z
ILN observed sounding), and this line should gradually outpace this
marginal instability with time. As such, the severe threat should
generally remain limited, though a focused severe threat may
continue with the more robust storms (southern portion of the line
in KY) for at least a few more hours.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 03/15/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6KDuebOYtuf_BGIVhYKeabZ4o5fI7mZwSMRNVW-itKpGDP4R3aa3XdxtYP3-eq1Uyk8AfU7bO= eL4gYfqaeo1fAfD0jA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 38308507 38478495 38768472 38988435 39538348 40688308
41158225 40868130 40378101 39848099 39218124 38728176
38348260 38208308 38178389 38308507=20


=3D =3D =3D
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