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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0180

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Mar 15 01:43:32 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 150143
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150143=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-150345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0180
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0843 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

    Areas affected...Central Arkansas into far south-central Missouri

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...

    Valid 150143Z - 150345Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.

    SUMMARY...Multiple supercells across central/north-central AR will
    pose an increasing tornado threat as they migrate eastward through
    the next couple of hours, including the potential for a significant
    tornado.

    DISCUSSION...Supercells moving out of northwest AR are becoming
    increasingly organized with several well-defined mid-level
    mesocyclones evident in KLZK and KSGF velocity imagery. These storms
    are moving into an environment characterized by STP values on the
    order of 3-5, which is largely being driven by a corridor of warm
    air advection between 925-850 mb over north-central AR. This diffuse
    warm frontal zone is supporting veering winds through the lowest 2
    km with a 0-1 km SRH value of 300 m2/s2 sampled by the 00z LZK
    sounding and around 450 m2/s2 recently sampled by the KLZK VWP. This environment is typically supportive of robust, long-lived supercells
    with an attendant threat for tornadoes, including significant
    (EF-2+) tornadoes. The aforementioned convective trends suggest that
    cells are beginning to realize this environment and that the
    downstream tornado threat is likely increasing across central to
    north-central AR.

    ..Moore.. 03/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_F4FmGSkC2GRKSfwF1_3yXUYXT4sSERvmADSa-pPcyV1-gmJuUKPTEAPtn11tN6-tAJ9ti2w_= zS-wvljJPPnEkOyExg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 34949341 35369323 35919296 36399258 36599234 36819141
    36799115 36629090 36399083 36139100 35809120 35109178
    34769215 34699252 34699289 34719318 34799340 34949341=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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