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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0224

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 16 13:49:58 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 161349
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161349=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-161545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0224
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0849 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

    Areas affected...northeast South Carolina...eastern and central
    North Carolina...and southeast Virginia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 51...

    Valid 161349Z - 161545Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51 continues.

    SUMMARY...Gradual destabilization is occurring across eastern North
    Carolina. A downstream tornado watch will eventually be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms, well oriented to the
    deep-layer shear vector, is moving across south-central North
    Carolina and northern South Carolina. Currently instability is
    relatively weak ahead of this line (MLCAPE <250 J/kg). However,
    visible satellite shows some breaks in the clouds and temperatures
    have already increased 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit across eastern
    North Carolina. If temperatures warm into the low 70s with the
    presence of low to mid 60s dewpoints already in place, sufficient
    instability should develop to maintain and perhaps strengthen this
    line of storms at is moves east through the morning and into the
    early afternoon. If weak destabilization occurs as current
    observational trends suggest, a downstream tornado watch will
    eventually be needed across eastern North Carolina and southeast
    Virginia.

    ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!86BWq380thmw0YoeH9Fdde9HquJexlYN7RojVUFi-Hd4enF1CLVoq1vmZXN6P5be3sSWQQeKM= ziSayG_OQeeWfeQb2U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...

    LAT...LON 33267915 33667981 34458008 35458019 36237999 36807956
    37357866 37517774 37447666 37217623 37027595 36617578
    36247566 35927550 35647540 35327544 35187551 35077590
    34707634 34527653 34627675 34597709 34287762 34067778
    33747792 33857828 33687874 33267915=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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