ACUS11 KWNS 051919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051919=20
PAZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-052115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025

Areas affected...Northeastern West Virginia...northern
Virginia...western Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051919Z - 052115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind and hail threat may increase with
thunderstorm development this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating along a secondary cold frontal boundary
located across West Virginia into western Pennsylvania has allowed
for convective development over the last 30-60 minutes. Temperatures
have warmed into the 60s ahead of this boundary, yielding around 500
J/kg of SBCAPE to develop. Looking at the mid-levels, a 500 mb
90-100 kt jet continues to move northward across the area,
supporting 0-6 km shear around 90-100 kts. CAM guidance suggests
further development is possible along the boundary through the
afternoon. Given strong shear profiles, some loosely organized cells
may pose a risk for damaging wind and hail. Convective trends will
be monitored over the next couple of hours for potential watch
issuance.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_tAAWhpdXh2-Xquk_WPqb1WF9hVcGxc0UgLQ7E9uipmPffSJI0utwf1b3V7Phcb-FVE5uVON7= yem1wcpEk0orAbjY2g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON 39938027 40838032 41578055 41928038 42037992 41967936
41587829 41187804 40667792 40227778 39567774 39047784
38577812 38147854 37937878 38127951 38578025 39368046
39938027=20


=3D =3D =3D
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