ACUS11 KWNS 050045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050044=20
ALZ000-050215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0139
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of central into northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 050044Z - 050215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for strong to potentially severe thunderstorm
wind gusts is increasing with the approach of a squall line. A WW
issuance is possible pending upward trends in intensity for the
northern portions of the squall line and any thunderstorm ahead of
the line.

DISCUSSION...A convective squall line continues to progress eastward
amid very strong synoptic forcing as a surface low continues to
intensify over the Midwest. A 500 mb wind maxima is approaching
portions of the Southeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley as
low-level moisture advection increases ahead of the squall line.
Damaging non-thunderstorm wind gusts have already been reported in
central AL, indicating that deep-layer synoptic wind fields could
easily support severe convective gusts with any efficient downward
momentum transport within the approaching squall line. The 00Z BMX
sounding depicts a mixed boundary layer extending past 850 mb, with
an additional dry layer centered over 700 mb, suggesting that
downward mixing from evaporative cooling is quite plausible.
Therefore, conditions will continue to be monitored for the need of
a Severe Thunderstorm Watch if northern portions of the squall line
continues to increase.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 03/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-JpG2TvPxlKBNMOsYSTfwryHrTPRTtT8xMX-QJEteyQ4qYsWS6iWCv5DSFOfQJY-pmzwScPsm= qRqXIJGghz8pi-j9go$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 33098820 34178797 34748696 34508607 33818555 33158542
32878568 32928653 32998731 33098820=20


=3D =3D =3D
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