ACUS11 KWNS 242223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242222=20
IAZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-250045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2159
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Areas affected...Much of Iowa... into portions of far northwestern
Illinois and southern Minnesota.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 242222Z - 250045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Multiple areas of scattered thunderstorms ongoing within a
broad warm-air advection regime may pose a threat for occasional
severe hail through the evening and overnight hours. A WW is
unlikely, though conditions are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...As of 2210 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed multiple clusters of scattered to numerous thunderstorms
ongoing over IA, northwest IL, and southern MN. Located ahead of a
shortwave trough over the central Plains and north of a surface warm
front near the Missouri River, these storms are ongoing in a
relatively strong low-level warm-air advection regime. Broad
isentropic ascent and the arrival of a cold front should continue to
support sufficient lift from scattered to numerous thunderstorms
this evening.

Despite very poor low-level dewpoints and lapse rates, several
elevated clusters have emerged over parts of IA, MN and IL with
occasional reports of hail and gusty winds with the more robust
convection. MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, overlapping with cool mid-level temperatures and 35-45 kt of effective shear will support a mixed
mode of elevated supercells and linear clusters capable of isolated
severe hail and perhaps a strong wind gust through this evening.=20

Additional storm development appears likely as a robust 30-40 kt
low-level jet and cold front arrives later this evening. Numerous
elevated storms should spread east into eastern IA and NW IL with
the potential for a couple of more organized cells to produce
isolated hail and gusty winds. Given the relatively limited coverage
of organized severe storms and limited buoyancy with eastward
extent, a watch is not currently anticipated.

..Lyons/Hart.. 10/24/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5hmHja3cpWzPFFdVy74o569kIE4IbB03WnxO8trJ46zLj20EHbaXpeGeUDkjSh5bOOQGBU0V8= dYMvQx1jyxuDbLtI3o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 42759624 43689545 44259434 44279424 43989227 43779182
43369132 42769104 42029087 41279098 40969139 40859212
40939340 40969434 41559593 42759624=20


=3D =3D =3D
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