AWUS01 KWNH 151604
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-152200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1014
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1203 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Areas affected...north-central MS to southern MS/AL and western FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151602Z - 152200Z

SUMMARY...Areas of training are expected to develop from the
central Gulf Coast into southwestern AL and central/eastern MS
through 22Z. Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 in/hr are likely, which may
result in localized areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...At 1530Z, visible satellite imagery showed thick
cloud cover over much of central to northern MS while skies over
southern MS into the Mobile Bay region had only scattered clouds.
A low located in the 925-850 mb layer was identified over
south-central MS via area VAD wind plots with very slow movement
over the past few hours. Low level ESE winds of 20-30 kt were
present to the east of the low over eastern portions of MS into AL
while wind speeds dropped off to the west along the AR/MS border
down to Mobile Bay. A combination of speed and directional low
level convergence was supporting a broken axis of mostly warm
topped showers from northeastern MS down to the offshore waters of
MS/AL with increasing development noted across the
southern/clearer-sky regions. The environment was very moist with
area 12Z soundings indicating precipitable water values of 1.6 to
2.0 inches and wet bulb zero heights between 13-14 kft. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 15Z showed that MLCAPE of 500 to 1500 J/kg
was focused from the central MS/AL border, southward to the Gulf
Coast from central LA to the FL Panhandle, with higher values
toward the south.

Daytime heating is expected to expand the coverage of 500 to 1500
J/kg MLCAPE across the region but likely keeping the better
instability focused over southern areas where greater solar
insolation is expected. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
likely increase through the afternoon with cell movement following
the general flow around the MS low. However, slow movement and
training will be possible with cells that form along the low level
convergence axis from north-central MS to the southern MS/AL
border, where lower topped cells will have a motion roughly
parallel to the axis of convergence.

Stronger low level convergence is expected from central to
northern MS where greater coverage of rain is expected but lower
instability may cap rain rates below 2 in/hr. Farther south,
rainfall rates may get as high as 3 in/hr due to the greater
instability combined with potential for slow movement but coverage
will likely be more isolated compared to up north. Portions of
this region have been anomalously wet over the past several days,
but other portions have missed out on the bulk of rainfall and are
nearer to average. At least localized flash flooding will be
possible through the afternoon.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Rr85u_WY5NEi7Z2xYqOaH6FWEeE5pJGhjw9likVR8uDabJgGvCST6jJxSXG-xK9lVtm= U_KFBTniTQj21c3j3tg7yVE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34089005 34078912 33328834 31958748 30698644=20
30098675 29918785 29998896 30388928 31508959=20
33139025=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151801
FFGMPD
TXZ000-152300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1015
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
201 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151800Z - 152300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will pose a
localized threat of flash flooding for southern TX through the
late evening. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr, but with localized
maxima near 3 in/hr, will be possible along with totals of 3 to 5+
inches.

DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery out of southern TX at 1730Z
showed showers and thunderstorms extending from near Laredo to the
US 281 corridor near Encino along with isolated development near
the Laguna Madre. Cells appear to be forming on an elevated
convergence axis tied to the 850-700 mb remnants of an old frontal
boundary that extended westward through the Gulf of Mexico into
southern TX, as seen on Layered PW Imagery from CIRA and in recent
visible satellite imagery. 850-300 mb mean layer winds of only
5-10 kt from the S or SW were supporting the slow cell movement.
The environment contained PWATs of 2.0 to 2.5 inches (highest to
south) along with 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moisture contributions in
the middle/upper levels were tied to former T.S. Ileana in the Sea
of Cortez and low level southeasterly winds funneling moisture
into the region from northeastern Mexico and the adjacent Gulf
waters.

An elongated 700 mb low on the border of Coahuila and Nuevo Leon
is expected to remain roughly in the same place over the next 6
hours per recent runs of the RAP which will keep low level
convergence focused across southern TX. In addition, a forecast
for increasing easterly 850 mb winds by 00Z, reaching 10-15 kt
between CRP and BRO, may support some slow moving cells near the
coast depending on cell evolution with time given slow steering
flow. Some southward propagation into the instability is also
expected in the short term with instability likely diminishing
from west to east over time. Slow cells movement will be capable
of rainfall rates between 1-3 in/hr and localized areas of flash
flooding that may end up being more of an urban flood threat due
to relatively dry antecedent ground conditions, outside of
isolated portions of far south TX.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_aIpGJAgzhzbkK9h-QgRQm3jhyRkctTUUBMEKlFvzA4CAIBMxd48qyfi-RULPSeWrilu= _li9Yqp40z9jS86evccmdhk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27879923 27419751 26959713 25959684 25649723=20
25809821 26199917 26999959 27479973 27819956=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151939
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-160137-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1016
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Arizona through central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151937Z - 160137Z

Summary...Thunderstorms continue to produce 1-2 inch rainfall
amounts across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated
flash flood potential continues with this activity.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts a mature,
forward-propagating convective complex extending from near Eau
Claire to Mason City. A few cell mergers have been noted with the
complex over the past couple hours, and local rain rates continue
to approach 2 inches/hr in spots despite appreciable forward
movement. The immediate downstream airmass remains sufficiently
moist/unstable for strong convection (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5
inch PW values), and current trends suggest that spots of 1+
inch/hr rain rates should continue to materialize for at least
another 2-4 hours or so as the complex migrates eastward.

The greatest concern for isolated flash flood potential exists as
storms traverse central and eastern Wisconsin (generally from Eau
Claire eastward to Green Bay). Although some uncertainty exists
with respect to eastward extent of the complex, these areas
currently have the lowest FFG thresholds (around 1-1.5 inch/hr)
and the greatest chance for those thresholds being exceeded on an
isolated basis. Destabilization is slow to occur across
northeastern Wisconsin, and it appears that the northern portions
of the complex may undergo weakening (and lessening flash flood
potential) especially north of Wisconsin State Highway 29. Higher
FFGs (~2-3 inch/hr) across southwestern Wisconsin suggests an even
more isolated/spotty flash flood threat in these areas through 06Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6kQwItSY1pgkFwuhZxGDSWiXbPnen-E1y6j_rcEUgNkiCoXki9TOattczPOnYWLBinJJ= kM8c9UEvTU3UwfhF9AfqVL4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36620685 36310517 35330474 34370485 33480572=20
32930692 31950803 31360853 31441153 33371128=20
36100945=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152140
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-160137-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1016
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
539 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Arizona through central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151937Z - 160137Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists as scattered
thunderstorm activity drifts northward across the discussion area
this afternoon.

Discussion...Abundant insolation has enabled a gradual deepening
of scattered convection across much of eastern Arizona and central
New Mexico. The storms are developing in areas of 500-1500 J/kg
of SBCAPE and 0.8-1.4 inch PW values - highest across southern
Arizona. While these PWs are a bit on the low side for widespread
flash flood potential, weak flow aloft was enabling slow storm
motions and potential for a quick 0.5-1 inch of rainfall on a
localized basis. Furthermore, localized terrain enhancement was
enabling an estimated 0.5 inch/hr rain rates near Ruidoso and
additional areas of New Mexico where burn scars have potential to
create excessive runoff conditions. On the whole, these rain
rates were occurring on an isolated/spotty basis, suggestive of
low coverage of flash flood potential in the near term.

Models (particularly the HREF) suggest continued thunderstorm
potential through the afternoon, with the greatest coverage and
persistence over southeastern Arizona through 00-01Z this evening.
Isolated flash flood potential is expected through that timeframe.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7h3976Sdvuu0fgDbvBoyCZOfhlJBmz0LRSlqUktrDTBHiIYsrFrniUkJQZ6qM6k1TsYf= PDrN7dWASJWPGw8nLKK0UTw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36620685 36310517 35330474 34370485 33480572=20
32930692 31950803 31360853 31441153 33371128=20
36100945=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152314
FFGMPD
TXZ000-160213-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1017
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Areas affected...Deep South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152313Z - 160213Z

Summary...Lingering, isolated flash flood potential should remain
across Deep South Texas for at least another couple hours or so.

Discussion...A mature convective complex near
Brownsville/Harlingen was producing areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain
rates (estimated per MRMS) over the past hour. Immediately
upstream/northwest of this complex, a lull in convection has been
noted likely due to widespread overturning and temporary low-level stabilization. Surface observations indicate very moist low-level
conditions in the wake of convection across the discussion area
(with upper 70s dewpoints), and 1000+ J/kg SBCAPE values remain in
place across the area. Additional convection just south of the
Rio Grande seems persistent and slow-moving. These cells could
drift back northward into the discussion area. Meanwhile
mid-level vorticity over the region could result in additional
updrafts over the discussion area for the next few hours. Any
additional rainfall would occur over locations of estimated 3-5
inch rainfall totals since 19Z. Wet ground conditions/urbanized
areas could be sensitive to additional rainfall, and renewed flash
flooding in the wake of ongoing activity cannot be completely
ruled out.

This conditional flash flood risk could persist for another 2-3
hours at least. Models continue to depict additional heavy
rainfall potential through the overnight hours (beyond 02Z) that
may 1) redevelop into populated areas of south Texas and 2)
require a new MPD issuance.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4WmQSHMt_rVePhThNLcPPxk354Kw4btmBTEWpd9quLmeMvkZUJ32hcmH7HRRsEzcbnVK= JnZP-nNVc33feYVq7C_RF5Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27019930 26949846 26589733 26089691 25839712=20
25879786 26209898 26599938=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160353
FFGMPD
CAZ000-160952-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1018
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1152 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Northern Sacramento Valley and
Foothills of the Northern Sierra Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160352Z - 160952Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall rates may cause some instances of flash flooding over the
next several hours, and especially with respect to the Park Fire
burn area.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W WV satellite imagery shows a
deepening mid-level trough and associated closed low pivoting south-southeastward across coastal areas of northern and central
CA. This energy has facilitated the development of an area of low
pressure in the northern Sacramento Valley which is oriented along
a frontal zone. A corridor of locally enhanced moisture
convergence and modest instability has pooled up across the region
and into the foothills of the northern Sierra Nevada.

This has led to the development and localized expansion of showers
and thunderstorms across Tehama County and this activity is
gradually settling down to the southeast as the stronger corridor
of height falls and deeper layer forcing pivots over the region.
MUCAPE values are only on the order of 250 to 500 J/kg, but the
latest MRMS data shows rainfall rates of 1.0 to 1.5 inches/hour
with the stronger storms.

Given the amplification of the mid-level closed low circulation
over northern CA that is expected overnight, an increase in deeper
layer ascent is expected, and this coupled with steepening
mid-level lapse rates and localized orographics should tend to
favor convection persisting in the near-term across portions of
the northern Sacramento Valley while also edging into the
foothills of the northern Sierra Nevada.

The 00Z HREF guidance suggests some spotty 2 to 3+ inch rainfall
totals may be possible over the next several hours, and this will
be supported by the aforementioned rainfall rates and slow
cell-motions. These rains may result in some localized urban
runoff/flooding concerns along the I-5 corridor. However, if these
rains can make it a bit farther east into at least the eastern
portions of Tehama County and the northern portions of Butte
County, there will be concerns for impacts involving the large
Park Fire burn area. Satellite and radar trends will need to be
very closely monitored overnight for the potential of heavy
rainfall impacting this burn scar, and especially since rainfall
rates are already quite heavy just to the west near I-5 involving
areas near and adjacent to Red Bluff vicinity. Instances of flash
flooding and debris flow activity cannot be ruled out.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6O4J5mJIb3ZTjAJVNDWwawsePP80IPFsLGfGXcZk-K2X1yTSEf_Nghy4dIoI70sOMgfY= oOBrNbbyMXe3-gEKcZBH_G4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...STO...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 40972168 40742138 40172131 39642162 39472220=20
39862261 40672238=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160901
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-161500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1019
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...Southeast NC...Northeast SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160900Z - 161500Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall associated with Potential Tropical
Cyclone Eight will be advancing inland this morning across
southeast NC and northeast SC. A gradual increase in the threat
for flash flooding can be expected as rainfall rates increase.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery
along with radar and aircraft data shows the low center of
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight centered approximately 95 miles
east-southeast of Charleston, SC at 09Z (5AM EDT). The storm
continues to advance slowly off to the northwest, and this will be
allowing for heavy rainfall focused around the northern quadrant
of the storm to begin cyclonically wrapping inland across the
coastal plain of southeast NC and northeast SC this morning.

The system still has a fair amount of baroclinicity associated
with it for the time being given the proximity of multiple frontal
features, but radar imagery shows pockets of very strong
convection north of the low center with extremely heavy rainfall
rates. This is also where there is much greater instability and
the latest RAP analysis confirms MLCAPE values of as much as 1500
J/kg near and to the northeast of the center where some of the
colder convective tops are noted.

Much more stable air is still noted along the immediate coastal
plain of the Carolinas, and this will tend to keep rainfall rates
a bit limited in the short-term across these areas as rains
offshore gradually push inland. However, in time as stronger
onshore flow arrives and the low center approaches by later this
morning, there should be an influx of greater instability and
stronger moisture convergence that will be conducive increasing
rainfall rates.

The 00Z HREF guidance supports rainfall rates in the 12Z to 15Z
time frame reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour across especially the
coastal areas of southeast NC around the Wilmington, NC vicinity.
Some of these heavier rainfall rates may also spread into
northeast SC near and to the north of Myrtle Beach.

Expect rainfall amounts by 15Z (11AM EDT) to reach as high as 2 to
4 inches with isolated amounts potentially up to around 5 inches.
These rains will gradually increase the threat for flash flooding
by later this morning.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!40FZpfYkV7YPK3F_dlYet3_nSNIlmMJYCKZtZyvQCwopHGqy1Hg4OmM_0YQO7gYQML3n= txgXXoipYj_WAvV-I0Cmjek$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34667791 34667738 34437729 34177765 33837785=20
33777842 33407907 33557953 33917961 34177945=20
34357913 34487867=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160911
FFGMPD
NDZ000-161510-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1020
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
510 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...Central ND

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160910Z - 161510Z

SUMMARY...Locally training showers and thunderstorms going through
early to mid-morning may result in some isolated areas of flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an axis of very
cold topped convection impacting portions of central ND as strong
thunderstorms developing within a well-defined warm air advection
pattern lift gradually off to the northeast. The convection is
aligned in close proximity to a frontal zone and a rather strong
instability gradient with MUCAPE values of as much as 2000 J/kg
noted across areas of central and southern ND.

MRMS data has been showing some rainfall rates with the activity
reach as high as 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour and this is being aided by
rather strong moisture transport associated with the nose of a 30+
kt southerly low-level jet.

Going through the early to mid-morning hours, there may be some
additional concentration and alignment of convection that will
promote some cell-training in close proximity to the front.
Additionally, there is some weak vort energy/MCV activity arriving
from weakening convection over western SD, and this energy may
interact with the front and the low-level jet to further promote
convective sustenance across areas of central ND this morning.

Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible with
isolated heavier amounts of 5 inches where any cell-training
occurs this morning. The antecedent conditions across the region
are quite dry, so any flash flooding concerns should be isolated
in nature and mainly focused within the more urbanized locations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ExnbWMMSCx0NH9GksyPfSN-u18puv6VRSkxBJtm2vmY6NIoSR47K8CvdogMU2pZ11DH= W89bBpfck4hPN8GjpnHuhkY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 48859932 48609848 48069883 47389991 46650180=20
47010252 47770206 48490084=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161214
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-161700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1021
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...Southeast SD...Central NEB...North-central KS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161215Z - 161700Z

SUMMARY...Persistent, stationary elevated thunderstorms continue
to produce solid rain-rates that localized totals are nearing
higher localized FFG values; suggesting flash flooding may become
possible over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV depicts stronger northern stream shortwave
and resultant MCS across the Northern Plains; a more subtle wave
is lifting northeastward along its southern flank across the
Nebraska Panhandle. This is enhancing low level flow across the
central Plains with backed 850mb veering through 700mb at 45kts
reducing to 20kts while also becoming confluent along and just
east of 99W. CIRA LPW and RAP TPW, show greatest ascent pattern
is just along the western gradient of the moisture axis with
1.25-1.5" values noted along it from SE SD into the northern KS
where deep layer (mainly directional) convergence is maximized.=20
MUCAPE appears to be sufficient at 500-1000 J/kg with axis of
greatest values along and west of the moisture axis, ideally
supporting the stronger convective ascent. This appears to be
exhausting as the updrafts/overshooting tops are becoming a bit
less in coverage and noting a generally slow warming with the
cirrus canopies associated with the two linear clusters from SE
SDak into N NEB and again along the NEB/KS line to Lincoln county,
KS.

The concern has been/continues to be the relative zero or very
slight westward propagation of the lines allowing for localized
enhanced rainfall totals. With deep layer steering more north;
the inflow from the 850-700mb isentropic ascent/instability axis
has been nearly equal/opposite to allow for the 1.5-2"/hr rates to
overcome the regionally above normal FFG values (given the
prolonged dry period across the region) which are about 3+"/3hrs.
As such, localized observed totals (per backyard wx stations) are
reaching 2-3" in spots, and MRMS Flash response are reaching
300-400 cfs/smi suggesting enhanced flows may be reaching near
levels typical of localized flash flooding concerns. Given
overall trends are slowly downward, an additional hour or two will
become more likely to exceed even these higher FFGs resulting in
localized possible flash flooding conditions.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5Ue8Zkh7q1Gd5w6hynnEO-ARZ6rtd0TqMUtsNvmtrlJtHdC7ohbaT-gN4IMkVgjdBRNv= mLHGyR0_q2u4hX87wFugLuI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...ICT...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 44269842 44089772 42799758 40029761 38909767=20
38569827 38689867 39079892 39909900 41439917=20
42669922 43359916 43749895=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161443
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-162045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1022
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1042 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...Southeastern NC...Eastern SC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161445Z - 162045Z

SUMMARY...Potential T.C. Eight. Add'l 4-8" possible, likely
resulting in expanding flash flooding area; localized considerable
flash flooding is likely as well.

DISCUSSION...Sizable rainfall totals over 6"+ have been reported
since midnight across portions of far southeastern North Carolina
this morning resulting in flash flooding conditions. 14z surface
obs and remote sensing suite depict the surface center of PTC
Eight is about 60-70 nmi southeast of Myrtle Beach, showing fairly
solid frontal structure with a well defined cold front associated
low-topped tropical shower line along the northeast and eastern
quadrants before angling along the Gulf Stream back to Florida.=20
Theta-E gradient also depict a sharpening warm front parallel to
the SC/NC coast to around Cape Fear before extending more
eastward, but has been showing a trend of north-northwestward
translation over the last few hours. This is expanding the warm
sector which is well defined with a axis of enhanced MLCAPE
increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg with a fairly saturated narrow skinny
profile, though there is a bit of mid-level dry air nosing in
along the southwest side. Along/north of the boundary the
effective cool conveyor belt is fully saturated through depth with
total PWat values over 2" reaching 2.25"; so with a highly
convergent low level profile an strong instability; deep
convection is likely to further develop/maintain through the late
morning into the afternoon hours with the capability of 2-3"/hr
rates (perhaps locally higher in short-duration) as convergence
waves move through the warm sector/TROWAL. Given proximity of the
warm front to the coastline, slow northward expansion of these
stronger highly efficient showers, but may be more inconsistent in
timing with reduced low level moisture convergence relative to
Brunswick/New Hanover counties. An additional 4-8" are possible
through the next 6 hours and considerable flash flooding will
likely become more common across these counties.=20

Further ashore...a mesoscale low/wave could be seen within the
coastal observations along the southern coast of Brunswick county
as well as within KLTX RADAR and appears to be strongly convergent
along the western edge of the low to mid-level TROWAL. Given
orientation to the core vorticity center that has recently rotated
under the eastern edge of the canopy (noted by reduced warm temps
in the WV suite); the wave will likely slow and translate a bit
south of due west. The remaining strong moisture flux convergence
but stabilizing air, will maintain enhanced rain rates but will
reduce into the 1-2"/hr range but likely have some training given
the orientation of the TROWAL should be consistent to expand heavy
rainfall footprint toward Dillon counties in SC and
Robeson/Columbus counties in NC with very slow northward
translation expected. Totals of 2-4" over the next 6hrs are
possible and should expand flash flooding problems that way as
well with time.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5xwHMtQfPKsteE_vVreoz_AYW8LE883pkfAxZIQHbZvl7wPaB5u1hnY-UwZ7VlPEcRQ7= 5E5scPF4EkUykcP872PCBTU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35147832 35057741 34967685 34787644 34577652=20
34617684 34547718 34427746 34217769 33977780=20
33817802 33827837 33787887 33977988 34388018=20
34818004 35027932=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161925
FFGMPD
MNZ000-NDZ000-170123-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1023
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...near the northern ND/MN border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161923Z - 170123Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to expand in
coverage and shift more towards a front as an upper-level cyclone
moves by the area and CIN reduces. Hourly rain totals to 2.5"
with local totals to 4" are possible.

Discussion...A northeast-moving upper low in western ND along with
surface heating to leading to reduced CIN across portions of ND
near a stationary front, which was earlier reinforced with
convective outflow. Precipitable water values of 1.5" lie near
the boundary. Effective bulk shear of ~40 kts exists. ML CAPE of
500-2000 J/kg exists, and is increasing. Temperatures at 700 hPa
are 6-9C.=20

The expectation is for some convective expansion with time, as ML
CAPE increases beyond 2500 J/kg in the warm sector. When CIN
reduces to zero, there is a question of whether the instability
shifts northward to the convection or if new convection forms
closer to the returning boundary. The MPD area takes both into
account. Also, the degree of effective bulk shear argues for
mesocyclones, which can be effective heavy rain producers. At
some point, the activity will try to forward propagate, which
veering 850 hPa winds strongly suggest, but the returning front
should limit southward propagation, favoring a vector more to the
east with time. While there is a signal for heavy rainfall in the
recent mesoscale guidance, there is a bit of spread, so
uncertainty is greater than normal. The ingredients suggest
hourly totals to 2.5" and local totals up to 4". Since it's
falling over areas that received similar rainfall over the past 24
hours, depressing flash flood guidance values, flash flooding is
considered possible, with the more significant impact in urban
areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_uBfQpEdXGiRGST_uUDGypJbtbtzzKwms6f5tTCfeIJeaScGr-d8jj6V1XmcCu2oSYF_= 0EH4pq2L6K69kg1S6-Oq7bY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 49929486 49489441 48689448 48109673 47879792=20
47649882 47939969 48360027 49389767=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161955
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-170053-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1024
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...in and near southwest CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161953Z - 170053Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to move
into the area over the next several hours. Hourly rain totals up
to 1.5" are possible, which would be problematic in steep terrain,
arroyos/dry washes, burn scars, and slot canyons.

Discussion...A deep upper-level trough across the West has led to
the formation of a boundary moving through eastern AZ and along
the UT/CO border at its leading edge which is spurring some shower
and thunderstorm development. Clouds are eroding and those that
exist are becoming more convective in appearance in recent GOES
Veggie Band imagery. Precipitable water values are ~0.75",
sufficiently moist considering the elevation, with ML CAPE values
of 500-1500 J/kg, highest near the Four Corners. Effective bulk
shear across the region is impressive, in the 40-50 kt range. CIN
appears negligible.

Guidance has a signal for heavy rainfall in the topography of
southwest CO through 00z before fading thereafter, which could be
due to the movement of the aforementioned boundary and related
erosion of the instability pool near the Four Corners. In the
meantime, convection with possible mesocyclones could lead to
hourly rain totals to 1.5" where rain is most persistent due to
either training, backbuilding, or cell mergers. This would be
problematic is any steep terrain, arroyos/dry washes, burn scars,
and slot canyons.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_VlaLZI1a52E-9Lby_akXp19B5AdovLCYDDj6cKXW8JWI9FwUeHmvz-cY416reH8u9TQ= afMVtRXBsIzhFWoCcUXXVzo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38480817 37940652 36860591 36560608 36480666=20
36860872 37290937 37970923=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162049
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-170247-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1025
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
448 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...portions of northeast SC & eastern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 162047Z - 170247Z

Summary...A deep layer cyclone will continue moving inland near
the SC/NC border. Heavy rainfall within its comma head
circulation and banding to its east will lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A deep layer cyclone, designated as Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eight by NHC earlier, continues to move inland
across far northeast SC. ML CAPE of 500-2000 J/kg is being
imported into southeast NC on its eastern flank, which has been
driving a narrow line of convection pushing slowly up the coastal
plain of NC. Precipitable water values are 1.75-2.25" in this
region. Effective bulk shear remains 30-35 kts.

There are a few foci for heavy rainfall from this system -- the
stratiform heavy rain shield to its west-northwest, the heavy rain
band moving up the NC coast, and the coastal front moving towards
the Fall Line on its northeast side. Within the stratiform rain
shield, 1-2" an hour totals and additional totals to 3" remain
possible over the next several hours as the system moves
west-northwest. Within the primary heavy rain band, hourly totals
up to 4" and local totals to 8" remain possible as it drifts
northeast. Near the coastal front in eastern NC, hourly rain
totals to 2.5" and local totals to 5" remain possible as it moves
farther inland. The biggest concern is if a new heavy rain band
forms closer to Southport-Oak Island-Bolivia-Carolina Beach while
the cyclone moves inland as radar estimates of rain so far in that
area are close to 18".=20

In many areas of central and eastern NC, along with far northeast
SC, soils are saturating if not saturated, causing 3 hourly flash
flood guidance to be increasingly low and easier to achieve.=20
Flash flooding is considered likely.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9AOZ3yU3haTnyz2q_qOSYWgEhkCdpWsntrNdokXsuoCwbJVB0f7BzlX4laLPswc6EGZS= w41OClstxl62XoA4iNIxsrg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36078040 35957828 35597658 35227581 35107569=20
34587650 34287709 33827775 33417879 34038004=20
34648089 35618162=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170030
FFGMPD
MNZ000-NDZ000-170627-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1026
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...portions of northeast ND & northwest MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170027Z - 170627Z

Summary...Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding
are expected to continue overnight. Hourly rain totals to 2.5"
and additional local amounts to 5" are expected.

Discussion...The three recent areas of convection across northern
ND into northwest MN are beginning to bridge together as new
convection forms at the present time. The western end moving east
of Minot is associated with an upper level low/MCV moving
northeast across ND. Farther east in northeast ND and northwest
MN, additional thunderstorms are forming within a warm air
advection pattern ahead of a related surface wave and near its
warm front, which appears to be in the process of becoming
stationary or perhaps nudging southward due to convective outflow.
Precipitable water values are around 1.5" per GPS data.=20
Effective bulk shear in the region is 25-35 kts, which is helping
to organize the thunderstorms. MU CAPE is 1500-3000 J/kg. CIN is
rebuilding across the region, which should keep most convection
elevated.

The upper low/MCV and its convective cluster marks the western
fringe of the heavy rain threat and is forward propagating to the
east. Mesoscale guidance still isn't agreeable on which side of
the US/Canadian border -- if not right along it -- the rainfall
maximum is expected over the next six hours, but radar
reflectivity trends continue to support heavy rain on the U.S.
side, or the southern side of the mesoscale guidance spread.=20
Eastward propagation should continue. The Canadian Regional Model
made a substantial southward shift in its 18z run, supporting the
more southward placement. Given what's happened so far, hourly
rain totals to 2.5" and additional local amounts to 5" are
expected. This would be most problematic in areas that received
heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours. Due to the isolated to
widely scattered nature of the flash flooding/very heavy rainfall
thus far and uncertainty in the model guidance, continue to use
possible wording over likely.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!46Oww9KZBv0Ueck8mouLXpwz_dWjK7-7c3BnyaoEs4pm2gfdgbc0egNU4vYiUR--Btse= kCWfOIFLHHNg-6rN3Texr64$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...DLH...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 49509618 49459488 48669337 48089390 47919566=20
47899642 47869755 47760140 48160139 48370122=20
48729983 49129838 49389725=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170302
FFGMPD
NCZ000-170900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1027
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1101 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...Central and Eastern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170300Z - 170900Z

SUMMARY...The non-tropical low center along the SC/NC border
continues to facilitate an influx of deep Atlantic tropical
moisture into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Additional areas
of flash flooding are likely overnight across central and eastern
NC, and this may include locally considerable impacts.

DISCUSSION...Low pressure continues to gradually advance
northwestward across the southern Mid-Atlantic which will continue
to drive a significant amount of deep Atlantic tropical moisture
inland. Strong moisture transport aided by an easterly low-level
jet of 30 to 40+ kts will continue to combine with a nose of
moderate instability for bands of strong convection with locally
extreme rainfall rates. The latest RAP analysis shows MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg still nosing inland across parts of
southeast NC just to the northeast of a frontal occlusion, and
this should pivot gradually northward into adjacent areas of
eastern NC overnight.

Given the persistent level of low-level forcing and instability,
some of these bands of convection should maintain a fair degree of
organization over the next several hours. Given this and the pool
of deep tropical moisture concentrated over especially eastern NC,
some of the rainfall rates may still be capable of reaching 2 to
3+ inches/hour.

In fact, given the locally extreme rainfall rates and concerns for
more training convective bands, additional rainfall amounts may
reach 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8+ inch amounts just for the
overnight period. The HRRR in particular suggests notable
concentrations of heavy to extreme totals for portions of Jones,
Craven, Beaufort, Pamlico and Carteret Counties, and this region
will need to be closely monitored for considerable flash flooding
impacts.

Farther back to the west across central NC, including the
Raleigh-Durham metropolitan area, the instability drops off rather substantially and this will yield lower rainfall rates by
comparison to areas farther east. However, there should still be
sufficient levels of moisture convergence/forcing for heavy
showers that may yield an additional 2 to 3+ inches of rain
overnight. This will likely sustain the ongoing areas of flash
flooding including persistent urban runoff concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5Jf9v5O4N5z-_NP-_rdeKeR6AgA-JYbcEVPU_isUllSge-li31K5NgbaTyqfmN--JeN-= KyQ8SdlFN5ieu1YfROSlcfg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36477854 36257720 35837636 35397576 34867583=20
34557655 34507730 34767796 34977890 35087986=20
35798037 36387992=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170902
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-171500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1028
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Areas affected...Eastern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170900Z - 171500Z

SUMMARY...An area of low center over northern SC will maintain a
threat of locally training bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms this morning over eastern NC. Some additional areas
of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite
imagery along with surface observations shows low pressure over
northern SC. This couple with surface high pressure over the
Northeast continues to favor a persistent and moist, convergent
low-level easterly Atlantic fetch across the southern Mid-Atlantic
region. High PWs of 1.8 to 2.2 inches coupled with a nose of
modest instability with MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg
continues to focus across eastern NC out ahead of a frontal
occlusion. This is continuing to allow for the development of some
broken bands of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity.

The latest radar imagery shows the heaviest rains impacting
portions of Carteret and Craven Counties where rainfall rates,
especially in close proximity to Morehead City, have been locally
as high as 2 to 3 inches/hour over the last couple of hours.

Additional bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected
this morning to slowly lift north and northwestward across areas
of eastern NC as the overall frontal occlusion pivots a bit
farther north across the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Persistent
easterly flow off the Atlantic and an influx of modest instability
should favor high rainfall rates continuing with some of the
broken convective bands that maintain some stronger organization.

The latest hires model guidance generally favors areas of far
eastern NC with the heaviest additional rainfall totals, with more
modest amounts farther inland as the nose of instability wanes.
Some localized additional totals of 3 to 6+ inches of rain cannot
be ruled out this morning within any of the heavier training
convective bands. This will certainly maintain an additional
threat for areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5DReUK-ApGm8XuGkXCVbzdZsd6EQpj2K5Ko23cgVThT6dqAyvjXs_THH2Or21uhOYCWP= h46Bh770BBDc5bkcz5fztG4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36577753 36377606 35877552 35427538 35207552=20
34977599 34727630 34827674 35327723 35767829=20
36327834=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171513
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-172030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1029
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1112 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Areas affected...Southeast VA...Northeast NC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171510Z - 172030Z

SUMMARY...South to north training and efficient rainfall rates up
to 2-3"/hr approaching urban centers of SE VA pose possible
localized flash flooding/rapid inundation flooding through early
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Active convection this morning over the Pamlico River
supported a tightening of the surface triple point as well as an
associated boundary layer to 850mb low. While these two features
have separated with the occluded low still remaining south toward
the mouth of the Pamlico River; the elevated circulation has
lifted northward over toward the Chowan/Albermarle Rivers
continuing to lift north. The trailing tail has become highly
convergent with easterly surface to 850mb both north of the warm
front (near Roanoke Island) lifting north and veered southeasterly
flow out of the warm sector over the central sound and Atlantic
east of the Outer Banks. Tds in the mid to upper 70s with temps
increasing to the mid-80s in the warm sector is supporting
increasingly unstable air with MLCAPEs over 1500 J/kg fueling
stronger updrafts within the strengthening deep layer convergence
axis. Total PWats of 2-2.25" are more than sufficient (loaded
with 1-1.2" in the lowest sfc-850mb per CIRA LPW) with the
strength of flux to support 2-2.5"/hr perhaps occasionally ticking
up to 3"+/hr for short-durations and highly localized.=20

Deep layer steering will support a south to north training that
may result in a few hours of training. This may result in 3-5"
localized totals across far SE VA and NE NC; however, there is
some uncertainty that propagation to the east due to the strength
of inflow may reduce the training duration but also shift the
focus along or just offshore, limiting the flash flooding/rapid
inundation risk. While much of the area is sandy soils (FFG
3-4"/3hrs) and supports higher infiltration, rates over 3"/hr or
even proximity to urban centers have a higher probability of
inducing flash flooding. Hi-Res CAMs are more persistent in
allowing for more westerly cell motions expanding the flooding
threat westward; however, nearly all do not resolve this low level
wave lifting north acting like a barrier as well as reducing
insolation with increased cirrus canopy and therefore unstable
downstream air. The 12z ARW2 seems to handle this wave best of
the overall solutions but trends appear west compared to
observations. Bottom line, these variations due reduce overall
confidence in precise placement but the rates/potential totals
should result in localized flash flooding.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4-tE9V3JbwyxnL18d2N9b0WMH2zAyspkoH9Hc6iHHVIVzN2X3W6TPppy6me98rvUP4zJ= zD-j9FmiCdUhD-_CWG8qtwQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37847641 37717571 37347562 36797581 36067559=20
35427534 35247557 35717611 36137646 36437669=20
36857687 37347693 37667677=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172031
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-180130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1030
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
431 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Areas affected...Piedmont to Southern Blue Ridge

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172027Z - 180130Z

SUMMARY...East to West training and efficient rainfall rates up to
2-3"/hr in a band developing over an occluded front over the
Piedmont of northern North Carolina will continue to develop and
shift across portions of the southern Blue Ridge near the NC/VA
border into this evening. Localized flash flooding/rapid
inundation flooding in this narrow corridor is likely.

DISCUSSION...Convection has reinvigorated in broad convergence
along/north of an occluded front over the NC Piedmont this
afternoon from around the Raleigh-Durham Triangle west through the
southern Blue Ridge near the NC/VA border. Dewpoints in the low
70s with sufficient instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) along the
occluded front are fueling stronger updrafts and the influx of
tropical moisture is allowing redevelopment. PW of 1.6 to 1.8" are
1.5 sigma from normal support 2-2.5"/hr rain rates that may
locally peak at 3"/hr as seen from KFCX over Stokes Co NC,
particularly in areas of upslope with the steep eastern side of
the Blue Ridge (near and south of Fancy Gap) in the area of
concern.=20

Slow motion to the occluded low/front will support west to east
training over the next few hours. This may result in 3-5"
localized totals over the NC Piedmont and especially along the
Blue Ridge. Given that around an inch of rain fall in advance of
this activity over the past day, FFG is generally around 1.5"/hr.
Recent HRRR runs have picked up on this activity and features
splotches around 2" through 02Z. However, given the sufficient
instability, slow motion, and heavy rates observed, flash flooding
is considered likely.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4iXPljgjvgcyR0FGICswSwmsRvLrVzERXNg7vvedUxHvCrMPZI7HFFuuxvlxEs1xhvrn= P_RSa6bp75Iq4qYJuvQbN00$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36938152 36838049 36647977 36337900 36057852=20
35827844 35757878 36218049 36398181=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172306
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-180500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1031
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
706 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172302Z - 180500Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rain will continue to drift northwest from the
northern Outer Banks into or through the Hampton Roads metro area
this evening. Considerable flash flooding is possible given the
high rainfall rates and particularly slow motion.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to redevelop north of a warm
front extending east near the Albemarle Sound in northeast NC.
This has resulted in considerable flash flooding in the northern
outer banks with 5-8" estimated from KAKQ between Duck and Corolla
today. Rainfall rates of 2-2.5" have been estimated from KAKQ
around Corolla between 22Z and 23Z. This activity is drifting
north and has a reasonable chance of continuing at a similar
intensity farther north over Virginia Beach and the Hampton Roads
metro area.

A tropically-sourced plume of moisture, with PW of 2.1" per SPC
RAP mesoanalysis is north of the warm front and shifting into the
Virginia Capes on convergent low level flow. Sufficient
instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) should continue to support hourly
rainfall of 2-3"/hr. FFG is generally 1.5-2"/hr over Virginia
Beach given the around 2" of rain that fell there earlier today.
Recent HRRR runs have been too progressive with this activity
shifting northeast, but the NW direction of motion ahead of the
warm front that is slowly drifting north is reasonable. Given the
potential for these heavy rates to cross the vulnerable Hampton
Roads metro area, the flash flood threat is considered likely for
this evening.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5i63edGWENQrh8G7M1L-zHMuXRAkByVNiqOcTe-WYD0R3XAsv5uni710zTUIotrPVfJz= AJa9tKEPHZl6-lZ9E6N3IVw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37387681 37387625 37257574 36587560 35807538=20
36257625 36597675 37037716=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 180906
FFGMPD
MTZ000-181505-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1032
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Areas affected...Central MT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180905Z - 181505Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall is expected to become more concentrated
going through dawn and the early morning hours across portions of
central MT. Generally this setup will favor an areal flood threat,
but around any burn scar locations, there will be a more enhanced
runoff concern with potential for localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A deepening upper-level trough and associated area of
low pressure lifting up across the northern High Plains will be
driving a rather impressive heavy rainfall event beginning early
this morning across central MT. Facilitating this will be the
evolution of a well-defined TROWAL working in tandem with an
increasingly focused area of deep layer frontogenesis along with a
strong mid-level deformation zone. This should yield enhanced
forcing to help concentrate the heavy rainfall threat in time
which will also include an increase in rainfall rates.

Gradually the heavy rainfall axis should tend to become oriented
in a general south-southwest to north-northeast fashion around the
northwest flank of the deepening 500/700 mb mid-level low center
and where frontogenetical forcing will be the strongest. However,
there is already a fair amount of instability attempting to wrap
westward around the north side of the deepening low, and there
will likely be a corridor of elevated convective elements that
will help drive locally heavier rainfall rates early this morning.

The 00Z HREF guidance and recent runs of the HRRR suggest as much
as 2 to 4+ inches of rain may fall through the early morning hours
(15Z/9AM MDT), with some occasional rainfall rates that may reach
upwards of 0.75" to 1"/hour with some of the stronger convective
elements that materialize.

These rains are expected to gradually drive an areal flood threat,
which may also include a threat for localized flash flooding
around any burn scars that receive some of these heavier rainfall
rates.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-947VJ_LSEJIjrePRyZbbUk6grEIFxwzYOkTkMNeR1rw6NGCDbxj65jGw8U4-F2HNjW3= ZmFrWMNY7Gj3h8CUBy40ytk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 49270843 48780760 47520767 46370826 45740926=20
45751071 46221151 47041177 47821154 48601088=20
49220976=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 191834
FFGMPD
FLZ000-200000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1033
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191833Z - 200000Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will expand across
Southern Florida through the afternoon. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr
are likely, which could result in 2-4" of rain with locally higher
amounts. This may result in flash flooding, primarily within urban
areas.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon depicts a
slow increase in coverage of reflectivity across the southern and
central portions of the Florida Peninsula. This coverage is
increasing thanks to rapid destabilization characterized by 3-hr
MLCAPE change as high as +1000 J/kg according to the SPC RAP
analysis, in the presence of PWs around 2.1 inches, or about the
90th percentile for the date. Into these impressive
thermodynamics, ascent is occurring in the vicinity of a weakening
surface boundary draped from near Cape Canaveral to Port
Charlotte, with additional lift provided through a weak shortwave
lifting eastward near the Everglades and a sharpening sea breeze
boundary along the Gold Coast. Storms which have developed so far
have been pulse thanks to weak shear, but have contained at least
brief rainfall rates estimated by KAMX to be as high as 2.5"/hr.

There is good agreement among the various high-res members that
the coverage of convection will continue to expand the next few
hours as instability maximizes and the different forcing
mechanisms continue to impinge on the area. Although bulk shear
will remain weak to limit much organization, widespread cell
development, especially as the shortwave lifts northeast, should
result in numerous outflow boundaries, suggesting disorganized
clusters through storm mergers and boundary interactions. With the
anomalous PWs in place, this should result in rainfall rates that
have a 20-40% chance of exceeding 2"/hr according to the HREF,
with short-duration rainfall rates potentially reaching 4"/hr as
suggested by HRRR 15-min rainfall reaching 1" in some areas.

Mean 850-300mb wind speeds are expected to remain weak at just
5-10 kts, and Corfidi vectors collapse to 5 kts or less into the
evening. This indicates slow and chaotic cell motions, especially
during collisions/mergers, to lengthen residence times of these
heavy rain rates. The most likely location for any persistent
rainfall rates will be along the westward advancing sea breeze
however, as anti-parallel mean flow to this boundary should result
in regeneration of cells from west to east. This could create
rainfall amounts of 2-4", with locally higher amounts possible
across the urban Gold Coast. This will create a 40-60% chance of
exceeding FFG according to the HREF, and if these intense rates
linger across any urban areas this afternoon, instances of flash
flooding could result.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!76iX0VNVa06d1Trrxj3E7GPWu4TM7_qLJln1pobkKeulQykaSrLTMQMZjeaeS3JM2_dl= cSpBPKRFnSG6RyM8_r_5fFg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27478032 27178010 26928001 26498001 26128003=20
25768013 25438027 25308036 25408051 25768074=20
26178092 26638083 26888062 27308073 27418058=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 192229
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-200428-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1034
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
628 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern/central Minnesota and
Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192228Z - 200428Z

Summary...Isolated/localized flash flood potential exists through
the early afternoon as a complex of thunderstorms produce heavy
rainfall across the discussion area.

Discussion...Over the past 1-2 hours, progressive convection has
increased in coverage and evolved into a more organized/focused
area of cells and linear segments generally extending from near
LaCrosse to Owatonna (along I-90/US 14). These storms were in a
moist, unstable warm sector, with 1.5 inch PW values and ~2000
J/kg MLCAPE values supporting robust updrafts and spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates. The storms were embedded in fairly strong
flow aloft (resulting in 40-kt storm motions), but were oriented
favorably for training especially along the aforementioned I-90/US
14 corridor. As cells continue to mature in this corridor (while
migrating east-northeastward into Wisconsin), the expectation is
that a few areas of rain rates approaching 2 inches/hr could
materialize and cause isolated/localized flash flood issues
through at least 03Z tonight.

The complex will produce these rain rates atop areas of ground
conditions that exhibit slightly more sensitivity with
northeastward extent. Soils are more moist in central Wisconsin,
and FFGs are slightly lower there (1.5 inch/hr thresholds)
compared to the remainder of the discussion area (closer to 2
inches/hr). The overall threat of flash flooding is a bit
conditional on heavier rain rates materializing on sensitive
soils. This threat should persist through the 03-04Z timeframe.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Sf-oiCjID2ImB73v7MUfwc0W7H1Uh93se50o9CyUswnxtmCO7CEJrCyCYYk-PBYJCSg= AMwPJST6PC2e-qCmb0C-lwY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 45619071 45328955 44448918 43868942 43489096=20
43559310 43909375 45119316 45459238=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 192303
FFGMPD
CAZ000-200502-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1035
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
703 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Areas affected...a small part of southwestern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192302Z - 200502Z

Summary...A few slow-moving thunderstorms have developed along
coastal ranges north of Santa Barbara. Some of these downpours
were falling on sensitive areas from burn scars, potentially
promoting excessive runoff. At least a few hours of locally
enhanced flash flood potential is expected.

Discussion...Abundant sunshine/destabilization beneath a cold
upper trough (centered near 34.8N, -121.3W) has fostered scattered
thunderstorm development near San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara county
coastal ranges this afternoon. These storms are very slow moving
due to weak mid/upper flow beneath the trough. -17C temperatures
at 500 hPa was promoting areas of 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE in vicinity
of the storms. Additionally, despite modest PW values (around 0.8
inch), easterly low-level flow was promoting focused
upslope/orogarphic lift against the coastal ranges to promote
persistent updrafts and slow-moving downpours. Areas of 0.25-0.5
inch/hr rain rates have been estimated per MRMS so far, with areas
of rainfall occurring close to sensitive burn scars across the
discussion area.

Heavy rainfall/flash flood potential will exist in portions of the
discussion area through/beyond 05Z per recent model guidance/CAMs.
The persistence of this heavy rainfall regime is tied to expected
slow movement of the mid/upper low over the area. Isolated areas
of 1-1.5 inches are possible in this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!52COZxdYxd4h-Qpe2pTYhqnVewRUkqt1LjyxEu_8pWBzcH7clVZTtACr5sCtsIqLn06g= vsNXx0ITaPhT_8ArmESHqMY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...MTR...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36232039 36071969 35431895 34861847 34621837=20
34441887 34681960 35212047 36122109=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201944
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-210130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1036
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Areas affected...Southern CA...Far Southern NV....Far Northwest
AZ...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201945Z - 210130Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, back-building cells with rates of 1"/hr may
pose localized 1-1.5" totals and possible flash flooding
conditions.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W and Regional RADAR mosaic have started to
depict increasing convective activity in both coverage and
vertical depth with peak heating of the day. The highly
anomalous, over 3.5 standard anomaly units from climatology, core
of the closed low is bottoming out across SW California with
vorticity center at the southern base; this is allowing for an elongation/stretching of the mid-level deformation zone to extend
across SW to NE San Bernadino county with increased deep layer
convergence. Given steepening lapse rates with cold air advection
aloft, surface heating into the 80s is starting to support surface
based CAPE values from 500-1000 J/kg to develop over the Southern
California Deserts toward the Colorado River Valley near S Nevada.
While deep layer moisture is a bit limited with only Tds in the
upper 40s, low 50s and total PWat values in the .75 to 1" range.=20
The convergence within the band and orographic ascent confluent
across the San Bernadino/Little Bernadino/San Jacinto Ranges
supports stronger vertical development and sufficient moisture
flux to support .5-1"/hr rates.=20

Limited cell motions given proximity to the closed low/deformation
zone will allow for very slow/stationary motion with upstream redevelopment/backbuilding along the deformation band across NE
CA. Propagation may also allow cells along the mountain ridges
into the Cochella Valley with time. This may allow for spotty
.75-1" totals with an isolated 1.5" total remains possible. Given
naturally low FFG values less than these hourly rates and
potential; an isolated flash flooding incident or two is
considered possible across the area through the late
afternoon/evening hours.=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-GqRMhYZHk0M1T6xycX3xsEm8BRojKKapxGLzUDkw1h2W0EWZUrSFVO62--GscVb0taT= IqEaGraJfLMEU3T1ND87DHw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36051537 35651447 35091429 34421518 33621507=20
33231522 33321587 32881615 32921657 33461673=20
33991720 34191765 35011753 35581699 36001605=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 211628
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1037
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1227 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Areas affected...High Plains of New Mexico into the Panhandles of
Texas and Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211630Z - 212230Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage
through the afternoon while intensifying to feature rainfall rates
nearing 1"/hr. Although storms will generally be fast moving,
repeating rounds could result in 1-3" of rainfall and instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E WV imagery shows an anomalously deep upper
low moving over northern AZ with impressive downstream lift and
moisture advecting into the southern High Plains of NM. Within
this moisture plume, an area of moderate stratiform rain has
lifted towards the TX Panhandle, while in its wake secondary
convective development is gradually occurring as reflected by
increasing glaciation in deepening cells noted via the day-cloud
phase RGB. Rainfall from the morning precipitation has been as
much as 0.5 inches measured by local mesonets, wetting the soils
ahead of what should be increasing convective activity as PWs
surge to 1.25-1.5 inches, and SBCAPE rises to 1000-2000 J/kg.

As thermodynamics intensify through the aftn, forcing for ascent
is also likely to become more impressive. The potent closed low
and associated trough to the west will gradually push east,
driving intense downstream divergence coincident with increasing
upper diffluence over the southern High Plains. At the same time, unidirectional low-level southerly flow will begin to
isentropically ascend the southward advancing cold front, and the
overlap of these forcing mechanisms into the elevated
PW/instability will result in widespread convective development as
suggested by high-res simulated reflectivity. The HREF
neighborhood probabilities indicate that rainfall rates have a
20-40% chance of exceeding 1"/hr in the deeper convection, with
some storm organization through 40-50 kts of bulk shear helping to
enhance and lengthen the duration of these rain rates in some
areas. Although 0-6km mean winds will remain around 30 kts,
suggesting progressive cell motions, aligned Corfidi vectors
indicate a strong likelihood for repeating cells which could
produce 1-3" of rainfall in some areas.

7-day rainfall for portions of northeast NM into the Panhandles of
TX and OK has been as much as 400% of normal, leading to locally
saturated 0-40cm soil moisture above the 95th percentile. While
the progressive nature of these heavy rain rates should somewhat
limit the flash flood potential this afternoon, any training or
repeated rounds could cause impacts, especially atop the most
saturated soils or across urban areas, sensitive terrain features,
and burn scars.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5HkMDdsS2VTEbUgjFSqJPkVJAUTuD8un0vtvI72lMBBT0bDHOEtUlvwXSqyzoKryFZNR= XxBMTu1dJgswVlcXXG1QI3M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...LUB...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37220299 37090182 36810118 36080098 35610122=20
34730197 33830305 33340409 33480503 34320544=20
35280538 35370537 36400491 36940409=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 212257
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-220400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1038
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
656 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Areas affected...southern CO into northern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212253Z - 220400Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of northern NM into southern CO through 04Z due to the
potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms with brief
training. Rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch in 30-60 minutes will be
possible along with localized totals of 1-2 inches.

Discussion...GOES East water vapor imagery showed a closed low
over northeastern AZ at 2230Z, tracking toward the ENE. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms have developed out ahead of
the closed low within a diffluent and divergent flow pattern
aloft. SPC mesoanalysis data from 22Z showed MLCAPE ranged between
500-1000 J/kg across northern NM but was less than 500 J/kg over
southern CO. At the surface, an easterly/upslope component to the
flow was present to the north of a cold front and outflow boundary
where anomalous precipitable water values remained but were
beginning to be pushed east ahead of the closed low.

While instability values are likely near their max given the time
of day, multiple rounds of thunderstorms will remain possible from
northeastern NM into southern CO as the closed low continues east,
each round carrying the potential for short term training with
possible rainfall rates as high as 0.5 to 1 inch in 30-60 minutes.
The multiple rounds could contribute to an additional 1-2 inches
of rain by 04Z, though these higher totals are likely to remain
highly localized. These storms will pose a localized flash flood
threat to the region, mainly in/near the Sangre De Cristo
Mountains and westward into adjacent terrain of north-central NM
and mainly across sensitive burn scar locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-gAXF5fLBb9W6u_wUBwsLCkN6rVzUtX12lETvp8OelxZ2uaMZJ4CNuCzgzjF4RATMt0e= OF4_keESzFsHO3WG5kzWMkE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38590488 38460454 37300452 36820409 36310360=20
35520376 35140487 35120532 35290573 35540591=20
35790606 35900638 36050671 36320683 36600683=20
36950663 37170628 37410576 37650552 37840541=20
38120542 38500520=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 212359
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-220555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1039
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into adjacent eastern NM/western OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212357Z - 220555Z

SUMMARY... Repeating and training of cells are expected to pose a
threat for flash flooding from the TX Panhandle into adjacent
eastern NM/western OK through 06Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr and
totals of 2-4 inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...2330Z radar imagery showed a small cluster of
thunderstorms advancing through the western TX Panhandle, with
more widely scattered coverage extending westward into eastern NM.
These cells were forming out ahead of a potent mid-level trough
over the Four Corners region, which was advancing toward the ENE,
with favorable shear for organized cells in place over the High
Plains. While most cells were moving toward the NE at 25-35 kt,
some deviant rightward motion of organized cells has been observed
and instances of training have supported MRMS-derived rainfall
rates of about 1-2 in/hr. Surface observations showed an effective
cold front (outflow boundary enhancement) extended southwestward
through northwestern OK into the TX Panhandle, and then
west-northwestward into NM. A pool of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE
was estimated via the 23Z SPC mesoanalysis from just south of AMA
into eastern NM along with anomalous precipitable water values
that ranged from 1.3 to 1.7 inches.

A strengthening low level jet is forecast with 25 to 35+ kt
through 06Z at 850 mb, which will act to overrun the southward
sinking effective cold front. Moisture pooling and elevated
instability of up to 1500 J/kg is forecast by the RAP to focus
over the TX Panhandle north of the boundary, with weaker values of
up to 500 into western OK. After the initial round of
thunderstorms advances east from the western TX Panhandle,
subsequent rounds are anticipated as the low level jet ramps up
overnight, leading to instances of repeating and training due to
the similar boundary orientation and anticipated storm motions.
Rainfall rates should generally fall in the 1-2 in/hr range and
total rainfall of 2-4 inches through 06Z may lead to some areas of
flash flooding, though dry antecedent conditions may limit flash
flooding to urban areas or otherwise flashy locations across the
region.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6NGCwGcGTbj2wvEqWSZJpXOoLKxLgDO4P_yTFrGAwbOdOowl_mW55bGtHCsHmZOqWnFv= k6aBut3MHp198D0QWxYZ5n8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36240090 36210007 35829981 35149991 34370074=20
33860247 33950309 34330322 34830311 35300282=20
35870192=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220155
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-220700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1040
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
954 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Areas affected...Mid-MO Valley into southern IA/northern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220153Z - 220700Z

SUMMARY...Brief training of 1 to 3 in/hr rainfall rates may
support localized flash flooding across portions of the MO River
Valley into southern IA/northern MO through 07Z.

DISCUSSION...0145Z radar imagery showed an expanding line segment
of strong to severe convection extending from southeastern NE into
far northwestern MO and southwestern IA. Additional convection was
noted to be racing eastward across eastern KS. These storms were
located just ahead of a wavy cold front and ahead of a low to
mid-level vorticity max in northeastern KS, observed on KTWX radar
imagery, advancing toward the northeast. A small ribbon of
instability was in place ahead of the cold front with 1000 to
2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and PWATs between 1.8 and 2.0 inches via the 01Z
SPC mesoanalysis.

Through 08Z, the cold front and instability are forecast to
continue advancing south and east while forcing ahead of the
northeastern KS vorticity max aids in lift with additional
thunderstorms likely to fill in across the MO/IA border. There
will be an overall progressive movement to individual cells and
instability should trend downward with time, but
repeating/training will also occur at times allowing for 1 to 2,
perhaps as high as 3 in/hr rainfall rates to occur. These high
rates could lead to short term rainfall totals of 3-4 inches in an
isolated location or two. While dry antecedent conditions will
likely limit the coverage of flash flooding, one cannot rule out
urban or otherwise sensitive terrain being impacted by rapid rises
of water.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!93FWATqQzFdWT9c8YIwZ994SCFEOmZI1RvdayzzEiJ-JIq9vE1CK5hz72nA-1xMR_MHr= IzeMbvkk34SZTtBLTOV4aEQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 41909358 41729253 41389184 40989149 40369132=20
40119156 40029204 39969270 39849386 39709523=20
39889618 40659533 41539467=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220319
FFGMPD
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-220718-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1041
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1119 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Areas affected...central/eastern Pennsylvania, north/northeastern
Maryland, northern Delaware

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220318Z - 220718Z

Summary...A cluster of deep convection over central Pennsylvania
was producing spots of rainfall rates approaching 2 inches/hr.=20
Isolated flash flood potential will exist with this activity as
storms migrate toward the southeastern Pennsylvania/northeastern
Maryland border region through 06-07Z.

Discussion...A vigorous shortwave trough over Pennsylvania has
helped to force a relatively fast-moving convective complex that
currently extends from near Williamsport to State College. Ahead
of this complex, cells have developed within a warm/moist axis
characterized by ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1-1.5 inch PW values -
highest near Chesapeake Bay. The cells ahead of the linear
complex were moving considerably slower (around 5-10 mph),
allowing for several cell mergers and prolonged rainfall, with
rates approaching 1.5-2 inches/hr at times generally from
Williamsport to Harrisburg.

Both models/observations and objective analyses indicate potential
for the southward-moving convective complex to continue for a few
hours, potentially reaching the MD/PA border region through 0530Z
and the I-95 corridor thereafter. The combination of cells and
linear convective structures suggests potential for at least an
isolated flash flood risk to persist with this activity during
that timeframe - especially near cell mergers and slower-moving
storms. FFG thresholds in much of the region are in the 2.5
inch/hr range, suggesting that the best risk of excessive runoff
should remain 1) isolated and 2) tied to low/sensitive spots and
urbanized land surfaces.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Xo6ruPuoxEk81-UYHxO7tn3Yi-GDj-WGsNLgtLkQi0v8_f_7qEfprDMsBsINvLctM_A= IoYZsPUsH7yZaKHseLQu9Lg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 41157682 40537581 39897560 39197581 38917653=20
39237727 40497798=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221702
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-222200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1042
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Areas affected...Southwest to Central East OK...Southeast TX
Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221700Z - 222200Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, back-building cells with rates of 1"/hr may
pose localized 1-1.5" totals and possible flash flooding
conditions.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W and Regional RADAR mosaic have started to
depict increasing convective activity in both coverage and
vertical depth with peak heating of the day. The highly
anomalous, over 3.5 standard anomaly units from climatology, core
of the closed low is bottoming out across SW California with
vorticity center at the southern base; this is allowing for an elongation/stretching of the mid-level deformation zone to extend
across SW to NE San Bernadino county with increased deep layer
convergence. Given steepening lapse rates with cold air advection
aloft, surface heating into the 80s is starting to support surface
based CAPE values from 500-1000 J/kg to develop over the Southern
California Deserts toward the Colorado River Valley near S Nevada.
While deep layer moisture is a bit limited with only Tds in the
upper 40s, low 50s and total PWat values in the .75 to 1" range.=20
The convergence within the band and orographic ascent confluent
across the San Bernadino/Little Bernadino/San Jacinto Ranges
supports stronger vertical development and sufficient moisture
flux to support .5-1"/hr rates.=20

Limited cell motions given proximity to the closed low/deformation
zone will allow for very slow/stationary motion with upstream redevelopment/backbuilding along the deformation band across NE
CA. Propagation may also allow cells along the mountain ridges
into the Cochella Valley with time. This may allow for spotty
.75-1" totals with an isolated 1.5" total remains possible. Given
naturally low FFG values less than these hourly rates and
potential; an isolated flash flooding incident or two is
considered possible across the area through the late
afternoon/evening hours.=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Raf4jFpWLwzZnXM89GEBYYsNLqlif8rCj3u1a-UXyChH7ZjaLJXKLZBzBqkBK8BeHzR= 62Ek7z1HNOtP0vFSlRmWc1g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36109607 36069525 35799487 35339499 34969571=20
34729672 34459805 34099985 33890132 34520180=20
35150101 35629991 35919906 36089804 36069700=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221735
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-222200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1042...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
134 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Corrected for Resend of Text

Areas affected...Southwest to Central East OK...Southeast TX
Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221700Z - 222200Z

SUMMARY...Potential for elevated training cells with rates slowly
increasing as cells approach surface front and deep moisture flux
inflow. Isolated rates up to 2"/hr and totals of 2-3" may result
in localized flash flooding particularly near urban or hard/baked
ground conditions.

DISCUSSION...16z surface analysis depicts a stationary front from
TQH at the the southward sagging cold front across the MOKSAROK
across to SRE to OUN to FSI and a low near FDR before becoming a
bit less defined across NW Texas into deeper low level status.=20=20
This stratus is banked in west of the surface low, but also within
the best isentropic ascent from return Gulf moisture along the low
level jet. Upper-level jet is sliding east and as such, the
mid-levels quickly veering across 850-700mb resulting in
convergent flow aloft of the Eastern Cap Rock into SW OK. Modest
500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and the FGEN forcing has been breaking out
convection for the last few hours with increasing coverage across
TX. Total moisture values through this eastward angling moisture
plume are fairly solid at at 1.5-2 standard anomaly units above
average between 1.5-1.75", but slowly climbing with the addition
of the return Gulf moisture and increasing confluence into the
mid-levels. As such, rainfall rates are slowly increasing from
1-1.5"/hr into an increasingly favorable steering flow allowing
for training elements over the next few hours.=20=20

Recent drought conditions resulting in very high FFG values are
likely still too high for these rates (with exception of central
Cap Rock where values are more approachable); however, as the
cells move eastward, the proximity to the surface front reduces
and bases are lowering and trying to root more toward the surface.
This is allowing for increased moisture flux into the updrafts
with Tds in the upper 60s. As a result, rainfall rates are
starting to increase to around 2"/hr with some occasional as well
a approaching increased urbanization. While 1hr FFG values are
still above 2.5"; the prolonged drought may have further hardened
the upper ground surface making infiltration even more difficult
and so may be over-estimating FFG. While, not likely to be large
scale or significant in magnitude, isolated flash flooding is
considered possible over the early afternoon hours across the repeating/training corridor particularly near urban centers.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9KdGmtOuz_OUcNklFbAeRysQRnJruYvZldQnH5pIp_Va_0wwL938X9qDU9K_60ot16TT= KcomUwZnyz2iHxDU5lHJp8E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36109607 36069525 35799487 35339499 34969571=20
34729672 34459805 34099985 33890132 34520180=20
35150101 35629991 35919906 36089804 36069700=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222109
FFGMPD
TXZ000-230215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1043
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
509 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Areas affected...Big Bend into northwestern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222107Z - 230215Z

Summary...Increasing flash flood potential will setup across
portions of Big Bend into the Permian Basin and northwestern TX
through 02Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr, but locally in excess of
2 in/hr, are expected to lead to a couple of 3-4" totals.

Discussion...Surface observations from 21Z and visible satellite
imagery helped place a cold front across western TX, with an
attached surface low just south of a MAF to BPG line. Convective
development was increasing along the portion of the front
extending northeast of the surface low, while development near the
weaker cold frontal segment to the southwest of the low was
isolated. 20Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed plenty of instability
in place south of the front with 1000 to near 3000 J/kg MLCAPE
(highest near Rio Grande) along with 1.4 to 1.8 inches of
precipitable water.

Lift across the region was occurring ahead of an advancing
positively tilted upper trough axis extending from the central
High Plains into the Desert Southwest and the right entrance
region of an associated 70-90 kt jet max near 250 mb. Short term
model forecasts show the front continuing to advance gradually off
toward the southeast over the next 3-6 hours into weak
southeasterly low level winds. Surface convergence and forcing
aloft, coupled with the available instability, should be enough to
support increasing convective coverage throughout the remainder of
the afternoon and through the evening, especially between I-10 and
I-20 where mean steering flow will be roughly parallel to the
front, allowing for repeating and merging of cells along with
rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr (locally in excess of 2 in/hr
possible).

Farther south, coverage of convection may remain more isolated,
especially in the vicinity of Big Bend N.P. where forcing is
weaker and some pockets of weak inhibition likely remain. However,
speed shear profiles will support some organized, possibly slower
moving, cells. The potential for merging cells will also exist
farther south, but this is conditional on higher coverage
occurring closer to Big Bend. Despite dry antecedent conditions
over roughly the past 3 weeks, at least isolated flash flood
potential will exist across northwestern TX into the Big Bend
region where a couple of 3-4" totals may occur.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9K-bFj-sylLBsR7j0mHcwfwqYt-TxrY4hDEg3KDcOpAwlKjqaEpDV1S1gdB0L66Rw3qF= sj0PYfsq-x4Osm22-C8W9_Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33729859 32849831 32029859 31079965 30550040=20
29920157 29560234 29280254 29000277 28820309=20
28780346 28930371 29060390 29380406 29620412=20
29790420 30210429 30510423 30620403 30470357=20
30580305 31150249 31880211 32710136 33320000=20
33649925=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232104
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-240215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1044
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
504 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Areas affected...eastern KY/TN into the central/southern
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232103Z - 240215Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across portions
of eastern KY/TN into the central/southern Appalachians. Rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible where brief training of cells
occurs.

Discussion...2045Z visible satellite and regional radar imagery
showed scattered thunderstorms ongoing from portions of central
KY/northern TN into the central/southern Appalachians. A recent
increase in the coverage of storms appears to be driven by daytime
heating and increased ascent ahead of an elongated vorticity
maximum observed on water vapor imagery from western TN into
northern MS. SPC mesoanalysis data from 20Z showed 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE and weakly anomalous precipitable water values of 1.5 to
1.9 inches across the region. The ongoing cells were moving with
the deeper layer mean wind of 15-25 kt in a general eastward
fashion.

There is some concern that as the vorticity max over TN/MS
continues to advance toward the northeast, increased forcing ahead
of this feature will act on instability already in place to
support greater coverage of cells heading through the remainder of
the evening, increasing the potential for areas of brief training
that could support locally higher rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr.
While this threat is expected to remain low, areas of low FFG
exist ever portions of eastern KY/TN into the Appalachians with 1
to 2 inches in an hour.

Outside of terrain, no significant boundaries were analyzed that
are expected to have an impact on cell placement and the
expectation moving forward is that cells will continue to remain
somewhat disorganized and multicellular in nature, although
increasing shear from the west may support some more organized
cells. However, beyond ~02Z, the expectation is that diminishing
instability with the loss of daytime heating will contribute to a
reduction in storm coverage and a lowering of the flash flood
threat.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7xwZHjpOHFc8VP5Yl0hUJw2muici3tJZiNP8J4-9UyVi6AgGbQ_cNsgG5-SHlxkyU7lX= vjSUgTQ-gi3TDz2CxvFgOxo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...LMK...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37758313 37678264 37428100 37278083 36548088=20
36148161 35238255 35358389 35848446 36568457=20
37018485 37318493 37658490 37738455 37748401=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232314
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-240510-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1045
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Areas affected...southeastern MO/northeastern AR into Mid-MS
Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232312Z - 240510Z

SUMMARY... The potential for SW to NE training of heavy rain will
increase overnight from the eastern AR/MO border region into the
and across the MS River. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are expected
with totals of 2 to 4 possible on a localized basis.

DISCUSSION...Fading visible satellite imagery at 23Z and regional
radar imagery showed a recent increase in the intensity of
thunderstorms over northern AR into MO, especially with a small
line segment located between STL and UNO. Additionally, a
northeastward tracking mesolow was observed in northern AR,
co-located with a small area of showers to its north. The regional
uptick in convection was occurring ahead of an upper level
vorticity max over western MO seen on water vapor imagery,
tracking ENE. At the surface, a low was located about 75 miles
southwest of STL with a stationary front extending eastward into
southern KY and cold front extending southward from the low into
west-central AR. Earlier clearing on visible imagery ahead of the
cold front from northeastern AR into southeastern MO had allowed
for greater coverage of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE located in the warm
sector over southeastern MO via SPC mesoanalysis data. Moisture
via area GPS observations and mesoanalysis data revealed values of
1.5 to 1.8 inches throughout the Mid-MS Valley.

As the upstream vorticity max/trough axis continue to move east
overnight, thunderstorm coverage is expected to expand across
southeastern MO/northeastern AR into southern IL, especially for
locations near/north of the stationary front. Some modest increase
in 850 mb flow is expected beyond 00Z ahead of the trough with
greater coverage of 20-25 kt southwesterlies forecast through 04Z
by the latest RAP which should lead to greater isentropic ascent
from the MO/IL border into southern IL and western portions of KY.
Due to unidirectional southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front,
instances of southwest to northeast training will be favored as
the general precipitation axis advances toward the east, ahead of
the upstream upper vort/trough axis. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
and localized maxima of 2 to 4 inches will be possible

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5_6Emwuq6zhHW2iJFCI5PUcMQIN5Ahy_RM0Yxe-KA6KEFeOwR83_2faIU-LwAaPQ8-kD= VCb6uhEFlOVr3vBHJbBDhFs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39338855 38468784 36748875 36378912 35798979=20
35479042 35419117 35679184 36149221 37119221=20
38239099 38998989=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240326
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-240924-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1046
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Areas affected...southern Illinois, southern Indiana, northern
Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240324Z - 240924Z

Summary...A cluster of thunderstorms was intensifying over
southwestern Illinois and will move eastward across the discussion
area over the next 6 hours. Isolated instances of flash flooding
are possible with this activity.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery depicts expanding
convective coverage along an axis extending from near Mount
Vernon, IL southwestward through Cape Girardeau, MO. These storms
were loosely organized, with a number of cell mergers across
south-central Illinois and a limited amount of training closer to
Cape Girardeau. The storms were being forced by 1) a strong
mid-level wave just east of St. Louis and 2) sufficient
moisture/instability (~1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.7 inch PW values)
for strong updrafts and efficient rainfall. Recent MRMS imagery
depicts a gradual increase in coverage of 1-1.5 inch/hr rainfall
rates that were beginning to approach one-hour FFG thresholds
across southern Illinois.

Models/objective guidance suggests that these trends will continue
with eastward extent toward southern Indiana and northern Kentucky
over the next 3-6 hours. Storms should reach southwestern Indiana
and vicinity around 0530Z. The loosely organized nature of the
storms (with occasional development but downstream and southwest
of the majority of ongoing convection) should continue to allow
for occasional cell mergers/training and spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain
rates at times. These rates should fall on ground conditions
characterized by 1.5-2.5 inch/hr FFG thresholds, and the spotty
nature of the heavier rain rates suggest isolated flash flood
potential especially in low spots and urbanized areas.=20

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7d4CwpoNKF4sSwzivgNOsflGcyeNSMtGWdfkhlUDVtLadz85CxGbafKDiS0J-KTDzgwx= sfXLj6xAmeVVf8P1EkM96RE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39438581 39148495 38508490 37678540 37188737=20
37198911 37748959 38648932 39208835=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241738
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-242300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1047
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
138 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas affected...Southern to South-central Appalachians...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241735Z - 242300Z

SUMMARY...Scattered cells ahead of main convective lines may
pre-soak rugged areas with spot of 1-2.5" resulting in scattered
possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E visible imagery shows a fairly clear skies
over the Appalachians across S WV/SW VA into E TN/W NC and far
upstate SC. Temperatures have risen to upper 70s/low 80s with
well above average low level moisture having filtered through the
range with Tds in the mid to upper 60s. As such, the area has
become fairly unstable with 1250-1750 J/kg of MLCAPE. Solid
25-40kts of southwesterly 850-700mb flow has been advecting
increasing moisture through the lowest levels to further moisten
the lower column with total moisture reaching 1.5" even into the
higher slopes with some suggestion of 1.7" starting to reach
eastern TN through the Cumberland Plateau.

While main northern stream trough remains well west over the
Midwest digging into the Tri-Rivers area of W KY, a subtle
southern stream wave can be seen sliding through E TN moving
generally parallel to the slopes. This forcing combined with
low-level convergence from approaching pre-frontal convective line
out of KY, is starting to spark increasing TCu and incipient CBs
across the clearer skies downstream. More mature cells along the
pre-frontal trough as well as very near the shortwave lifting
north will likely continue to enhance with cells capable of
1.25-1.75"/hr rates. While cell motions will likely limit overall
totals to about 30-60 minutes, it is the pre-cursory cells that
given solid instability and updraft strength may be capable of a
similar 1-2"/hr total prior to the main forcing lines that may
result in spots of 1.5-2.5" totals over a 3 hour period as they
repeat or at time merge with the cells in the effective warm
sector ahead of the line.=20

Hydrologically, the rugged area has naturally lower FFG values at
1-1.5"/hr and 1-2"/3hr which suggest either slower moving
pre-cursory cells or the stronger forced lines will have a solid
potential of being exceeded. The scattered and transitory nature
is likely to result in localized scattered incidents of flash
flooding given 1.5-2.5" totals through 00z.=20=20=20=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5mft5fm8mf2N5imOwIwoq5Gk1GRjjKCLt02m9aPzM6Dg8tRMdIhlW0tN497hvPe5bHVu= yFmsBq5Z_jd0_DRdQbAikl8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...LWX...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38798028 38517956 37897963 37337997 36208103=20
35368190 34978242 34898304 35248336 35868325=20
36378346 36968305 37638230 38528109=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241905
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-250104-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1048
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas affected...Middle Tennessee, Central/Eastern Kentucky, into
southern Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241904Z - 250104Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm clusters ahead of cold front may
bring 1.5-2.5" resulting in isolated flash flooding into this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional NEXRAD and GOES-E IR imagery shows a few
thunderstorm clusters have developed over middle TN and central KY
which is ahead of a cold front. Recent rainfall estimates of
1.5"/hr are seen south of Cincinnati and north of Nashville.
Sufficient moisture of 1.6 to 1.7" PW and instability with MLCAPE
1500-2000 J/kg are allowing this heavy development. SWly low level
flow, which is parallel to the advancing cold front, is 25-30kt
which will keep a repeating thunderstorm threat into the evening
and slow eastward progression despite relatively quick storm
motions in 45kt mean layer steering flow.

There are more flash-flood susceptible areas in the outlook
including south central KY where 2-3" fell overnight, urban areas
such as the ones mentioned above, and over northern KY where 3hr
FFG is around 1". This scattered activity will continue to produce
1-2" in a couple hours with localized amounts of 3" possible into
the evening. Should these higher totals fall on the more
susceptible areas, flash flooding is possible. Overall the flash
flooding is more of an isolated threat.
=20=20=20=20

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7-7T1clRwaLuLTAgutQiZls3BhimUncxZuRrWD4Eul7s6j04z3xwrqHGfZ9f_liFCHYr= 2kJezEn-YshYLYYoDedV2t8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39678323 39028216 37978207 36338398 34478767=20
34628872 35478823 36498724 37468652 38028600=20
39098487=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242230
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-250415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1049
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
629 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas affected...Southwestern Virginia and West-Central North
Carolina into Upstate South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 242227Z - 250415Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of thunderstorms focusing over a
stationary front near the NC/VA border brings the risk for quick 2
to 4" rainfall and scattered flash flooding into this overnight.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms, some of which are supercells, will
continue to develop in a warm sector in southwest VA and western
NC and further develop as they cross a stationary front/cold air
damming wedge and into south-central VA and central NC. Recent
rainfall estimates of 2.5"/hr are near Martinsburg, VA which is
just beyond the stationary front. High moisture (PW 1.8 to 2.0")
and instability (MLCAPE 1500 to 2500 J/kg) are allowing this heavy
development in the warm sector which convergence and a sharp
downward gradient over the front slowing activity that crosses it.
SWly low level flow is 15 to 20 kt which will keep
moisture/instability advection over the front and allow further
development.

Confidence has increased in the flash flood potential along the
front with recent HRRRs/18Z NAMnest all featuring QPF of 2 to 4"=20
before midnight along the west-central NC/VA border and into
south-central VA. Stability well into the cold sector behind the
front should continue to limit the progression of activity to a
couple counties into south-central VA with ongoing activity
expected west of the Blue Ridge to the Alleghenies of VA. Further
development is likely down the eastern side of the Appalachians
tonight, so the outlook area include western NC into Upstate SC
given earlier heavy activity there today. Previous flooding in the Raleigh-Durham Triangle makes them vulnerable and the presence of
the front through there should allow for further flooding
concerns. All to say flash flooding is likely through this evening
near the frontal zone and better characterized as possible farther
south over western NC into SC.
=20=20=20=20

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!58JoNc9J0GamLjSQ9HPixWWiI7gwoL3lfkh7uxN0BFzsdi5frmirA49hLkdj4eEPzpkv= ru_mMk4mSxJFr8W4jAkNMNI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37777959 37167911 36807809 36187811 35817869=20
35247959 35448056 35428136 34988224 35398278=20
35998190 36638133 37048113 37418058 37728013=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242313
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-250500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1050
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas affected...South-Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242311Z - 250500Z

SUMMARY...Threat for further thunderstorm development overnight
ahead of cold front may bring additional 2 to 3" resulting in
isolated flash flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...Scattered supercells have developed east of the
pre-frontal convection over east-central KY and middle TN in the
broad warm sector west of the crest of the south-central
Appalachians. Recent rainfall estimates from KJKL are up to
1.5"/hr over far eastern KY. Sufficient moisture of 1.5 to 1.6" PW
and instability with MLCAPE 1000 to 1500 J/kg will continue to
allow redevelopment of activity this heavy. There are further
threats for flash flooding as the main pre-frontal convection
comes through later this evening along with topographical lift
from the western slopes of the south-central Apps. Deviant motion
has been noted from left-moving super cells, so cell mergers and
local upwind propagation will continue to be where the greatest
flash flood threat is into the overnight.

This area has rather low FFG, generally 1 to 1.5"/hr and around
2"/3hr. So overlap from ongoing activity and the next round
further raises the potential for flash flooding. Recent HRRR runs
have indicated generally 1 to 2" from both rounds, which helps
point to an isolated flash flood threat overnight.
=20=20=20=20

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!75eMTg0spooPsLUE1keXbR57wZa4sbuEhmAqL5dpbjCc5h6NXe_vGZILIcYyjPGOlC0A= hulzEaW9c_W3MoErGIBVbQs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38268090 37298082 36138197 35498348 36318409=20
37188367 38208261=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250431
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-251029-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1051
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1230 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...much of North Carolina, upstate South Carolina,
and a small part of southern/southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250429Z - 251029Z

Summary...Continued rounds of thunderstorms are expected to
repeat/train across the discussion area through 08-09Z/4-5am
Eastern. Rain rates exceeding 2 inches/hour at times are expected
to result in at least localized flash flood concerns.

Discussion...Over the last 2-3 hours, thunderstorms have focused
along an axis extending from far northwestern South Carolina (near
Spartanburg) east-northeastward through Raleigh/Durham and on to
Roanoke Rapids. These storms were oriented parallel to
west-southwesterly steering flow aloft, allowing for spots of
localized training along the aforementioned axis. Additionally,
enhanced low-level flow (around 25 knots across the Piedmont) were
aiding in persistent low-level convergence along the axis while
also maintaining 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5-2 inch PW values
within the pre-convective environment. These factors are
continuing to support areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates at times
that were threatening local FFG thresholds across the region
(generally in the 1.5-2 inch/hr range - lowest in western and
central North Carolina). This regime is expected to persist, with
at least isolated flash flood potential materializing across the
discussion area. A few spots of 4 inch rainfall totals are
possible through 10Z. Some concern exists that the Raleigh/Durham
area could experience heavier rain rates and urbanized flash flood
potential overnight. Additional concerns exist across areas that
have received 1-3 inch rainfall totals over the past 6 hours,
where wet soils are likely to contribute to a greater risk for
excessive runoff (especially in south-central/southeastern
Virginia and central North Carolina).

Moisture/instability profiles support redevelopment north of the
primary convective axis (across northwestern North
Carolina/southwestern Virginia) as well. Thunderstorms are
expected to be a bit less focused in these areas (with lower
potential for training/repeating). Isolated instances of flash
flooding are still possible in this regime, however, especially
where 1.5 inch/hr rain rates can materialize over sensitive/low
spots.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6QnbCKMXB2agTymKG-p9ro26LkVSQzd30BsDpzjNOZm1Sti2TuAqiYdZpbsfAwni5hl6= 2BY95B542irfj5fwy1xyN_4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37467723 36997655 36377659 35677725 35247924=20
34898198 35158287 35648240 36178142 36877979=20
37317834=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250657
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-251256-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1052
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky, western Virginia, and
northeastern Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250656Z - 251256Z

Summary...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to
migrate northeastward across the southern/central Appalachians,
where wet soils have left ground conditions vulnerable to
excessive runoff. Isolated instances of flash flooding are
possible through early morning (12Z/8am Eastern).

Discussion...Ascent/difluence aloft associated with longwave
troughing across the central U.S. continues to support persistent,
but scattered thunderstorm activity across the discussion area.=20
The convection continues to persist in a marginally unstable
environment (~500 J/kg MLCAPE) although with sufficient moisture
(1.5 inch PW) for heavier rainfall to materialize in a few of the
cells. Modest low-level forcing/focus was allowing for convective
bands to migrate northeastward amid appreciable steering flow
(around 35 knots), with localized backbuilding/training and
favorable orientation of the bands (to flow aloft) allowing for
prolonged rainfall and spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates at times.=20
FFG thresholds in the region were generally around an inch or
less, and convection was occasionally exceeding those thresholds,
suggesting isolated/sporadic flash flood potential in the short
term.

Models/observations suggest that the overall scenario supporting
isolated flash flood potential should remain in place through the
early morning hours (12Z or so). Scattered convection should
continue to initially deepen across eastern Tennessee and migrate
northeastward atop areas of wet soils and hilly terrain, with
occasional and sporadic instances of flash flood guidance
exceedance. Convective coverage and limited instability are
mitigating factors for a larger-scale flash flood threat, though a
few instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-uF8xM0IG71y07af3nQfOkcj8xQs7O_2wSe3nTHk46YTvQc1HUwseHxC6rDOJV4blgu9= UJitnDYvRC28jG316xvgKbk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37738248 37278166 37368085 37448034 37078013=20
36528032 36108159 35858306 35648356 35728397=20
36218439 36928407 37558355=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251501
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-252100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1053
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1101 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 251500Z - 252100Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be possible this afternoon as the
Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) begins from northeast Alabama through
the Southern Appalachians

DISCUSSION...The well-advertised PRE has begin to take shape
across portions of the Southeast this morning. Storms have
developed in a cluster across eastern Alabama with another one
over eastern Tennessee. FFGs in the area are high...generally
around 2.5 inches in 1 hour for Alabama and Georgia, but they are
much lower in eastern Tennessee around Knoxville.

An upper level low across far western Tennessee is drawing
increasing moisture northwestward across Georgia into this zone
where the storms are forming. Upper level jet stream winds are
expected to approach 100 kts, which will increase the upper level
divergence over the storms in the right entrance region, thus
further enhancing the lift.

Through mid-afternoon, CAMs guidance suggests additional line
segments of storms will develop generally aligned SSW to NNE
across the area. Embedded cells within the lines, as now, will
track NNE, roughly parallel to the lines. The result will be some
areas seeing multiple rounds of training thunderstorms, each
capable of producing rainfall rates to 2.5 inches per hour...with
those heaviest rates more likely once the storms move more into
Georgia later this afternoon. Further, since the storms will be
moving roughly parallel to the lines, the lines' forward speed to
the east will be slow, allowing for multiple cells repeating over
the same areas. Even now with pockets of 2 inch per hour rates
associated with the strongest storms, the training nature of the
storms will result in multiple rounds over potentially flood-prone
and urban areas. Thus, even where FFG values are higher, the
repeating nature of the storms will locally lower values as
repeated storms move overhead.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8fuzp5UF4MyLM5i4ice_SruJT_LUmPhvtYGUW8MjuAu0_gBz4F9ucTfRSImAXt0lc3gk= Rw4cLLKMvpdj6fkAj_k4YFo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36768370 36298236 34918356 33728479 32768559=20
33518664 34718567 35388522=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251701
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-252100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1054
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...North Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 251700Z - 252100Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and training thunderstorms associated with
the developing predecessor rain event (PRE) are likely to cause an
urban flash flooding threat as they approach Atlanta.

DISCUSSION...A line of slow-moving and training thunderstorms has
developed west of Atlanta this afternoon. The storms are making
their way into the metro area. The storms have a history of
producing rainfall rates up to 2.5 inches per hour across far
northwestern Georgia.

As the storms move into Atlanta within the next hour, potential
for training as well as locally heavy rain with any stronger storm
cores will likely cause flash flooding in the streams and creeks
around the city that are most prone to flooding due to heavy rain.

Beyond the initial round of heavy rain, backbuilding storms as
well as new development south of town will likely result in a
long-duration rain event where steady light to moderate rain may
continue across the city through the afternoon.

East of town the flash flooding threat through the afternoon will
be significantly lower, as higher FFGs in the rural areas should
mean much more rainfall will be needed before significant flash
flooding occurs. However, given the increasing moisture out ahead
of Helene, slow moving storms, and most importantly, training of
the storms...even outside of town flash flooding will be possible
through the afternoon.

The much greater threat for flooding area-wide is expected to be
later tonight as stronger easterly flow associated with the
approach of Helene slows any eastward-moving storms significantly.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9mpvhlMUu9Aq2Zs1wxis2Q0CchZDvwR4RY3t5Gr396QjSW1VhmnT7NPnPbLBc8QIusML= 7SPiSIbuQaJ_DPWHBfdYcM0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35198318 34768295 34408294 33868312 33198372=20
33098440 33098481 33028522 33848462 34728366=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251800
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-252359-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1055
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...Southern Alabama into Western Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251759Z - 252359Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving bands of heavy thunderstorms in a plume of
tropical moisture ahead of Helene will continue to produce areas
of 2.5" hourly rainfall and the potential for 4" rest of the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of slow-moving heavy thunderstorm bands
oriented SSW to NNE over southern/eastern AL will continue to
converge and shift north over the next hour or so, then likely
drift east into western Georgia rest of the afternoon. Hourly
rainfall of 2.5"/hr has been estimated from both KMXX and KEOX
over Butler Co AL. While 1hr FFG exceeds 3" there, lower FFG near
2"/hr is in the Montgomery metro area as points east where an inch
of rain fell overnight.

This activity is on leading edge of the core of Helene-sourced
moisture with PW of 2" just now entering southeast AL. A tongue of
2.25" PW will shift up the AL/GA border by 00Z on 15 to 20kt
southerly flow, further increasing the risk for extreme rainfall
trough tonight.

Guidance has generally underdone the coverage of activity though
recent HRRRs are decent. Through 00Z, areas of 2-4" are likely.
However, this area has been in drought, so FFG will only be
exceeded in the most extreme rates and potentially in more
sensitive urban areas like Montgomery, so flash flooding through
the afternoon is considered possible.

This event alone is the drought breaker for much of southeast AL,
but unfortunately this area will continue to receive extreme
rainfall at times now through the passage of Helene Thursday
night. Further updates on this situation can be expected this
evening and Helene in general at hurricanes dot gov.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4_E-pL511Oj2rc_woMysisJ7HgYCBVuJG5hJFlHVjDgcdZxF6aBRhbZ9eawPpWCoesqE= 6PidKCjNULmwP9J4_jcF71Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33218473 33008406 32188449 31058522 31028696=20
32408663 33038619=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251842
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-260041-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1056
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...Western Slopes of South-Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251841Z - 260041Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding into this evening as the
Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) expands north west of the
south-central Appalachian crest.

DISCUSSION...Two north-south corridors of locally heavy rain have
developed west of the crest of the Appalachians over eastern
KY/southern OH and over far southeast VA into central WV.
Localized rates of 1.25"/hr have been estimated recently south and
east of KJKL. This heavy rain is currently moving out of an area
in far southwest VA that received 3"+ over the past day.

An upper level low centered over the western tip of Kentucky is
drawing Gulf moisture on southwesterly low level flow around 10kt
which is why activity has been on the west side of the Appalachian
Crest thus far. Instability is somewhat limited with MLCAPE around
500 J/kg. However broad scale lift east of the developing low will
continue to overcome the lower instability.=20

Through the rest of the afternoon expect embedded cells of heavier
rain to continue lifting north with localized areas exceeding
1"/hr rainfall with potential for 2-3" in some pockets through
00Z. FFG is low in places, around 1"/3hrs where the heaviest rain
fell in far southwest VA and generally 1.5"/3hr elsewhere. Given
the lack of prolonged higher rates, flash flooding is considered
possible with an isolated coverage.

An intense moisture plume from Helene will shift up the southern
Appalachians overnight which will shift the heavy rainfall focus
to the eastern side of the southern Appalachian crest, so please
stay tuned for further heavy rainfall updates.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8dGFpl2olqaoar73bLvnYKwMMCeOBWHRFcefpBU8_lLPWZ6DJPd4_DWNlcNbm4tz5Yu1= TH_odiAFPPN8uu0VhTiNifA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39208194 38218211 37998167 38898050 38788002=20
38148034 37398116 36268191 36458364 37808331=20
39108265=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 252015
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-260200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1057
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...North Georgia and the Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 252013Z - 260200Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms will continue to lift over the
Atlanta Metro area rest of this afternoon and over the eastern
side of the southern Appalachians through tonight. Flash flooding
is likely, particularly in Appalachian terrain, through this
evening before becoming considerable to catastrophic overnight.

DISCUSSION...Convergence of the tropical plume of moisture ahead
of Helene and a cold front over southern Alabama has allowed a
particularly heavy line of slow-moving and training thunderstorms
to develop over southeast AL into western GA. This northward shift
in moisture is driven by an upper low centered over far western
KY. Recent rainfall estimates of 2 to 3" per hour are from KFFC
and KMXX over eastern AL/western GA. The heaviest rain thus far
has stayed south of the Atlanta metro and outflow is seen on KFFC
which indicates the main threat for now to be avoiding that
particular area.

However, the tropical moisture plume with PW of 2 to 2.25" will
shift up the AL/GA border rest of the afternoon, pushing moisture
and instability back over the Atlanta metro and then up the
eastern side of the southern Appalachians through this evening.
Terrain enhanced rainfall there will quickly fill in a gap of
rainfall over the past day that in western NC (surrounding
Asheville). Rates of 2"/hr is likely by this evening which would
exceed the FFG of 1.5-2"/hr. Flash flooding is likely through 02Z.
The 18Z HRRR depiction of 2-4" in terrain over western NC and
northeast GA is reasonable, but around 1" additional seems low for north-central GA and the Atlanta metro with a few additional
inches possible.

The much greater threat for flooding area-wide is expected to be
later tonight as even stronger southeasterly flow associated with
the approach of Helene pushes ever greater moisture into the same
eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians with potentially
catastrophic flash flooding overnight.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9G545def8ARs157X46OEZ-10V0iw4FQu_LPb0uvj5WgbYbegSDjzE2wychwhfZbHECPL= y9Z-3OHKQcLxwU6yRDCLhco$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36478281 36268158 34908229 33878304 33158365=20
33158508 33548517 34468443 35388418=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 252247
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-260445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1058
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
646 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...Florida Panhandle into Central Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 252245Z - 260445Z

SUMMARY...Particularly heavy rain is expected in southwest Georgia
into the Florida Panhandle this evening due to convergence of
pre-frontal activity from the west and the outermost banding of
Helene from the south. Flash flooding is likely despite dry
preconditions due to extreme rainfall rates of 3" per hour.

DISCUSSION...Heavy and locally excessive pre-frontal activity over
southeast AL and west-central GA is shifting east on outflow while
the outermost bands of Helene have been tracking north over the FL
Peninsula. Convergence of these two areas is progged this evening
over southwest Georgia into the FL Big Bend/eastern Panhandle.
This outer band is on the leading edge of particularly high
moisture, lining up with the 2.2" PW contour from recent RAP
analysis with PW climbing to 2.4" farther down the Peninsula which
is 2.5 sigma over normal. Sufficient instability is present with
MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg.

Recent HRRR runs have been under realizing rainfall rates which
are estimated from KTLH and KVAX over Thomas County, GA. However,
the timing in recent HRRRs has been decent with the main
convergence over southwest GA occurring between 00Z and 02Z. There
is a risk for 2 to 5" rainfall through the rest of the evening
which is only a little above the high 3hr FFG of 4 to 5" due to a
lack of rain in this part of GA yet. However, these extreme rates
from slow moving and merging cells warrants likely wording for
this discussion.

A trough extending southwest from western GA extends over the FL
Panhandle and should provide a focus for some additional heavy
rain, so the discussion area is extended west about halfway
through the Panhandle. As of now the area west of Apalachee Bay
which received heavy rain earlier today appears to be south of the
main heavy rain risk area, but given this coast is in the main
Helene moisture plume there is at least a localized excessive
rainfall risk there.

Further banding from Helene approaches this area overnight, so
expect further MPDs tonight and through the passage of Helene
Thursday night.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7gQy-L5rRb2YDCuFlBs4dXTBE357slN-AZ2GzHbhs4ufqAFgFZIzioZAvrmI1xNjA8Vy= _3ooxOdSwPTpoIKVBXAXnTY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33338324 32558294 30998309 30018392 29348506=20
30198636 30938639 31758554 32598502 33278448=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260011
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-260600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1059
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...Southern Virginia into West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260009Z - 260600Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding into the overnight as moisture
ahead of Helene streams over a stationary front and into the
eastern slopes of the Appalachians.

DISCUSSION...The northern end of the moisture plume in advance of
Helene is lifting across NC and will cross a persistent front over southern/southwestern VA rest of the evening. Scattered
thunderstorms have broken out along this frontal zone and to the
west there remains terrain enhanced rainfall along the eastern
slopes of the Appalachians. There were two main areas of heavy
rain in this region over the past day, farther east over the NC/VA
border last night, and earlier today west of the stationary front.
The main focus for heavy rain into the overnight is generally
progged to be between these two areas, but this is where the Blue
Ridge is, so a bit of a broader swath as been drawn for possible
flash flooding.

Instability is sufficient with MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/kg and
moisture influx has been noted with low level southerly flow will
increase from 15 to 30 kt through midnight which will reinforce PW
around 1.7". Deep layer mean flow is around 30kt which should keep
activity east of the Blue Ridge progressive, but localized
rainfall over 1"/hr may cause some flooding issues. Terrain
enhanced rates of 1"/hr will also cause concern...flash flooding
is considered possible into the overnight.=20

Further activity in the southern Mid-Atlantic is likely into
Thursday, so please be on the look out for updated heavy rainfall
info.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!56Cb5WgNNgRrZQDnZzC0kwz7gCJUpY4QCWynC2pdhntabD3FeXxXi4cnQGuGebI-IJKF= kBCxNkSZVKrwnVQ0tS7Xl8E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38287993 37917941 37677879 37207740 36577758=20
36257848 36118091 36658225 37368181 37738106=20
38278046=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260249
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-260600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1060
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1049 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...Piedmont of GA and SC into the southern
Appalachains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260248Z - 260600Z

SUMMARY...Areas of training are expected to continue over the next
few hours from the Piedmont of GA and SC into the southern
Appalachians. Peak rainfall rates in excess of 2 in/hr are
expected with potential for considerable impacts.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery over the Southeast showed an
advancing area of heavy rain moving north through south-central GA
along with a persistent axis of training heavy rain across the
southeast facing slopes of the southern Appalachians/Blue Ridge
Mountains. An axis of south to north training has been observed
from just south of I-40 near Lake Lure in western NC northward
toward the VA/NC border near Damascus. Observed peak rainfall
rates have occasionally reached between 2-3 in/hr with rainfall
totals for the day of 4 to 6 inches in the vicinity of I-40
between Asheville and Marion.

Low level southeasterly winds of 20-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer
are expected to maintain a plume of robust moisture transport into
the terrain over the next few hours, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
located just upstream across the Piedmont and adjacent foothills
of the mountains. An axis of low level convergence and areas of
training are expected to continue across western NC, and though
some lower rainfall rates are likely at times, the persistent
nature of training will continue a likely threat of flash flooding
with locally significant/considerable flash flood impacts
possible. Farther south into GA, the northward advancement of
heavier rain will be moving into portions of the state which
picked up 2 to 3 inches of rain since Wednesday afternoon with an
additional inch or two possible by 06Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9uRkReJ5am0F6lbjtuStoZddiEjBCfZhdS_JySntPthWdIf3NEWU_zgWgKKSDX_vt3n9= RL_sllcvfYezbrWt4Jh7v3s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36658178 36408143 36068111 35308187 34808214=20
34318256 33568286 33438358 33588397 33778433=20
34318452 34918431 35448364 36028295 36358267=20
36608234=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260552
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-261030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1061
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
152 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...eastern WV into central VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260548Z - 261030Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of training will maintain a flash flood over
the next 3-4 hours, but decreasing instability is expected to
diminish the threat by 10Z. Peak rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr
are expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms remained as of
0530Z across central/western VA into eastern WV. MRMS-derived
rainfall rates over the past 2 hours have been peaking in the 1 to
1.5 in/hr range, mainly near areas of mesoscale rotation. Cells
were being driven along the leading edge of moisture
transport/warm air advection along an anomalous moisture plume
extending well northward of Hurricane Helene located in the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Low level upslope flow was also a factor
with 20-30 kt of 925-850 mb oriented from the SSE, focused into
the Blue Ridge and Appalachians Mountains, located beneath
diffluent flow aloft to the east of an upper low positioned over
the Lower OH Valley.

A few factors are expected to influence flash flood potential over
the next few hours. While a few pockets of south to north training
and repeating are ongoing from eastern WV into western and central
VA, instability has been...and will continue to fall...through the
remainder of the night. A low level anticyclone off of the central
Mid-Atlantic coast is forecast to shift eastward which should
allow for veering of the low level flow in VA, with winds becoming
oriented more parallel to the axis of terrain. While precipitable
water values will remain high (1.5 to 2.5 standard deviations
above the mean) and highly localized instances of higher rain
rates may remain by 10Z, the overall threat is expected to
diminish later this morning.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_2MzV1xwHkH74tyNhg-PRtf5AHCekb-1piLPcB9LunPN8SIIowq52t5W8RXcl3h8N5FG= AGIUlQs6EECw3Ti_eoZE5Zc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39317873 38997788 38317828 37597878 37447924=20
37437971 37478029 37738058 38018053 38398036=20
38797995 39177930=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260807
FFGMPD
FLZ000-261405-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1063
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...Apalachicola region of FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260805Z - 261405Z

SUMMARY...As bands of heavy rain located north of Hurricane Helene
approach the eastern FL Panhandle, renewed areas of flash flooding
are expected toward 12Z. An additional 2-4 inches is expected
through 14Z.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Helene was located about 375 miles SSW of
Apalachicola, FL according to the 06Z position by NHC, moving
north around 8 kt, though an increase in forward speed is expected
late this morning. While this position is still well south of the
FL Panhandle, 0745Z radar imagery showed axes and spiral bands of
heavy rain located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, grazing the
western FL Peninsula and Gulf/Franklin counties of the Panhandle.
GOES East water vapor and infrared satellite imagery showed
healthy outflow in the northern semicircle of Helene's circulation
and enhanced divergence aloft was present along the FL Panhandle
due to the presence of a potent upper level jet max centered over
the upper TN/OH Valleys.

An increasing frequency of bands of heavy rain are expected to
impact the FL Panhandle over the next 3-6 hours as Helene
continues to advance north. While rain bands oriented generally
west to east should push north without too much in the way of
training concerns, rain bands that are aligned more with the mean
steering flow from SSE to NNW will be favored for training. Even
short term training could still allow for a quick 1-2 inches of
rain in as little as 15-30 minutes due to the tropical environment
in place. It is expected that steady rain will continue throughout
the remainder of the morning, but with bursts of heavy rain
occurring at times and with an increased frequency through 14Z
along with an additional 2-4 inches.

Given multi-sensor MRMS estimates of 5 to 10 inches of rain over
the past 24 hours from near Apalachicola to Lake Talquin, soil
saturation will more easily support runoff from additional heavy
rain. Since instability of 500 to 1000+ J/kg is forecast to remain
along and offshore of the coast, higher rainfall rates may be
limited to coastal sections of the east-central Peninsula, but
longer duration/lower intensity rainfall could still have flood
impacts farther north.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-uwol5Mp4pDUbDRleBlBuMxXeJNIQI5JtTkfRh_K1Dxz8zgZPVJCvYHKNRwPdm0KYkO7= wfWPNkuiQ1hSdoFhn3ZNCz8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30508455 30298420 29738424 29508479 29468531=20
29588552 29758563 30098552 30318536 30458492=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260652
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-261045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1062
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...central/northern GA into the southern to central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260651Z - 261045Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy rain with south to north training to
build northward through GA into the southern and central
Appalachians through the morning. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will
be likely, but isolated 2+ in/hr cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery across the Southeast at 0630Z
showed a "Y" shaped appearance in reflectivity with a branch of
heavier rainfall extending northeastward from the FL Panhandle
into central GA, co-located with a remnant outflow/effective
frontal boundary. A second axis of higher reflectivity extended
northwestward across the GA coast into central GA and a broken
axis of higher reflectivity values was located from central GA
into western NC. These axes of higher reflectivity/heavier
rainfall aligned fairly well with the leading edge of low level
(0-3 km AGL) moisture flux where a plume of 2+ inch precipitable
water values was building northward across GA via southeasterly
low level winds of 20-30 kt. Mesoscale areas of rotation were
embedded within the precipitation shield, associated with enhanced
convergence and higher reflectivity along with with south to north
training following the deeper layer steering flow.

Short term RAP forecasts showed an axis of low level moisture flux
convergence focusing from central GA into the southern
Appalachians through 11Z along with gradually strengthening
925-850 mb winds as Hurricane Helene continues to advance north
from the southern Gulf of Mexico, increasing the low level height
gradient across the Southeast. Flow is expected to be especially
focused along the northern GA/SA border with RAP forecasts of 40
kt by 12Z. The increased low level flow into and perpendicular to
the axis of terrain, coupled with lift within the right entrance
region of a 110-120 kt jet max aloft, should allow for
steady/periods of heavy rain with rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr. The
flash flood threat will also exist farther north toward the
upslope regions of the central Appalachians into western NC and
southwestern VA where heavy rain has already fallen over the past
1-2 days, although reduced instability/moisture with northern
extent may temper rainfall rates compared to those farther south.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_mf8Di26G500TgTbBXssuA17EmMKPTbty_iVZuLEhVaiDzKYKRNhX8wlFaPb9Hk6zscb= hHKQLgLumB83leSZcQ8gS-g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36958081 36798069 36308087 35898114 35198192=20
34738225 34178229 32608194 32398331 32648457=20
33238469 34088456 34588434 35168392 35948323=20
36168293 36418229 36588189 36758143 36938111=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261017
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-261445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1064
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
616 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...eastern GA, Upstate SC into the southern/central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261015Z - 261445Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding, with locally significant impacts
possible, should be expected for portions of the southern
Appalachians this morning. Training of heavy rain is also likely
to produce areas of flash flooding for other portions of the
Southeast through 14Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 10Z showed an axis of heavy
rainfall with embedded mesoscale circulations extending from
east-central GA along I-16 (Laurens and Treutlen counties)
northward into far Upstate SC and western NC, along the southeast
facing slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains. MRMS-estimates
indicated rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5, locally up to 2 in/hr over
the past 1-2 hours within this axis. In addition, 24 hour
estimates from MRMS showed 4 to 8 inch rainfall totals from Oconee
County in far Upstate SC into McDowell County in western NC. The
axis of heavy rain has been co-located with an area of strong low
level moisture flux convergence centered from eastern and northern
GA into western NC where 09Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed ~500
J/kg MUCAPE but with higher values of instability closer to the
Southeast coast (1000+ J/kg). Precipitable water values ranged
from 1.7 to 2.3 inches across the region (higher toward the
southeast), with an area of strong upper level divergence located
within the right entrance region of a nearly stationary upper
level jet max located east of a closed low positioned over the
Lower OH Valley.

Short term forecasts from the RAP show very little movement to the
axis of low level moisture flux convergence over GA/SC/NC over the
next 2-4 hours. Given little change in the forcing mechanisms in
place, heavy rain potential looks to continue over the next couple
of hours across many of the same locations already seeing heavy
rain. The biggest change is a forecast minor reduction in the
available instability, already somewhat low, over inland
locations. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr may reduce in magnitude but
areas of heavy rain are likely to continue, overlapping with areas
that have already seen heavy rainfall and are experiencing ongoing
flash flooding. Additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are
expected through 14 to 15Z with locally significant flash flooding
possible across portions of the Blue Ridge from Upstate SC into
western NC.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!85b-l1nzVvzOaXO0nT4KP2poRkJtHunD9gwP6wv_R-Zu4PYQCikfO6a2V6j0tGHNYWO7= xpJ46Pxy9Vy68CmprEwQ8DA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...JAX...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36628109 36318087 35428126 34578160 33488154=20
32718152 31958196 31978300 33478369 34918367=20
36068281 36588194=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261353
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-261900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1065
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
952 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...Central Florida Panhandle into central Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261351Z - 261900Z

Summary...Repeating rounds of heavy rainfall featuring rates of
1-3"/hr will expand across the FL Panhandle and into the Southeast
today. Where the most pronounced training occurs, rainfall of 2-3"
is likely, with locally more than 5" possible across the central
FL Panhandle. Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...The GOES-E WV imagery this morning clearly indicates
the impressive tropical moisture plume being channeled northward
from Hurricane Helene which is positioned in the southern Gulf of
Mexico. Downstream, deep moisture characterized by PWs measured by
GPS and regional 12Z soundings of 2-2.5" is funneling northward as
it gets squeezed east of a pronounced upper low positioned over
IL/IN. This impressive moisture will continue to be acted upon by
robust deep layer ascent through downstream mid-level divergence
between Helene and the upper low which will overlap with a
persistent jet streak centered over TN leaving favorable RRQ
diffluence from FL through western NC. A stationary front is
analyzed across the region resulting in locally enhanced
convergence and isentropic ascent as well. Despite abundant cloud
cover which will somewhat minimize the instability potential, the
impressive synoptic ascent into the deep moisture will continue to
support heavy rainfall through the afternoon.

The high-res CAMs are in pretty good agreement the next several
hours that heavy rain will focus along the stationary front and expand/intensify downstream of Helene into the FL Panhandle. This
will likely result in dual maxima for rainfall through the aftn.

Along the front, 850mb winds surging to 30-45 kts will feature
increasing isentropic ascent and converge into the boundary
itself. This is reflected by increasing moisture transport vector
convergence, and Corfidi vectors that become increasingly parallel
to the mean flow and the front. This suggests persistent training
of rainfall rates which the HREF probabilities indicate have a
30-50% chance of exceeding 1"/hr. This could result in 2-3" of
rainfall and instances of flash flooding through the afternoon.

More significant flash flooding potential will gradually develop
across the central FL Panhandle, especially in the vicinity of the
Forgotten Coast. Here, 850mnb winds increasing to above 50 kts
will exceed the mean 0-6km wind, suggesting more broad enhancement
to the ascent. This will occur coincidentally with Corfidi vectors
becoming increasingly anti-parallel to the mean flow, suggesting
an enhanced backbuilding threat and training of rainfall rates
which the HRRR suggests could exceed 3"/hr (0.75-1"/15 mins). This
could produce locally as much as 5" of rain as reflected by 6-hr
HREF neighborhood probabilities, and this will occur atop soils
saturated from 24-hr rainfall that has been 4-8" in this region.
Any of the most intense rain rates will likely result in flash
flooding, with locally significant flash flooding possible in
urban areas or where training occurs atop the most primed soils.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_zS2hmBoXZHeDf15hSPZ9bNwtzm-EInFPQlDT-PwK0MRn3sC83xP7iCTDuwR1zOnv3RX= xO6aKB0FY2dn9f_RT6iz7wM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33508431 33398358 32008269 30938294 29978357=20
29798392 29498454 29378498 29518558 30218618=20
31338605 32308558 33028496 33258477=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261450
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-262030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1066
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1049 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261449Z - 262030Z

Summary...Widespread heavy rain downstream of Hurricane Helene
will continue today into the Southern Appalachians. Rainfall rates
of 1-2"/hr are likely, which through repeating rounds could
produce 2-3" of rain with local maxima of 5". This will enhance
flash flooding, with significant impacts becoming likely across
the Southern Blue Ridge.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows an
expansive area of heavy rain across much of the Southeast and into
the Southern Appalachians. This is associated with a pronounced
moisture plume noted in the GOES-E WV imagery extending downstream
from Hurricane Helene in the Gulf of Mexico. PWs within this
moisture plume have been measured as high as 1.75 to 2.0 inches on
the 12Z U/A observed soundings from KRAX and KFFC. Instability is
somewhat limited, only around 100-250 J/kg of MLCAPE, but deep
layer ascent is impressive. Mid-level divergence between Helene
and a pronounced upper low over IN is combining with a nearly
stationary poleward arcing jet streak over TN to leave favorable
RRQ over the region, while low-level SE flow continues to upslope
into the terrain. In this environment, rainfall rates have already
been measured via MRMS as high as 1.25", and these will likely
continue through the aftn.

During the next several hours, persistent moderate to heavy rain
with rates 0.5-1"/hr will lift northward across the area, with
embedded convective cells producing locally enhanced rain rates to
2"/hr as reflected by HRRR 15-min rainfall exceeding 0.5". 850mb
inflow will remain out of the S/SE through the aftn while
gradually intensifying to above 30 kts, resulting in moisture flux
that is progged by the SREF to exceed +3 sigma later today. This
impressive moisture advection combining with nearly unchanging
robust ascent will result in continuous rainfall into areas that
have already received 4-8+" of rain the past 24-hours. The HREF
neighborhood probabilities indicate a 50-70% (10-20%) chance of
more than 3" (5") of rain the next 6 hours, with the highest
probabilities across Upstate SC and into far western NC along the
Blue Ridge. Elsewhere in northeast GA, eastern TN, and southwest
VA, 1-3" of additional rainfall is likely through the aftn.

This rainfall occurring atop saturated soils, sensitive terrain,
and ongoing flash flooding, will almost certainly enhance impacts
across the region. FFG has been extremely compromised to as low as
0.25"/3hrs for which the HREF exceedance probabilities reach above
70%. This lends high confidence to flash flooding and impacts as
rain continues across the region. However, across the Blue Ridge,
current streamflow anomalies are as much as 400-600% of normal, so
any additional rainfall could quickly result in significant and life-threatening flash flood impacts.

Additional rainfall this evening will almost certainly necessitate
future MPD issuances across this region with widespread
significant flash flooding, and possibly locally catastrophic
impacts, developing as the rain persists and becomes even more
intense into tonight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7VIaHIFGs9tb7z-yxhkxhUzgWCRF-29HSujbYUuEdnx4WuiB8dZAQFJz21TUzaVNkwNO= UzZp62A0V08YOLw-JYixReA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37668066 37518005 37058039 35718133 35008180=20
33918230 33768241 33478258 33238297 33248347=20
33558382 34008415 34418448 35568425 36848340=20
37388243 37648158=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261506
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-262105-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1067
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1106 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...South Carolina and Eastern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261505Z - 262105Z

SUMMARY...Extremely heavy rainfall in heavy banding will persist
into the afternoon over eastern Georgia and central South Carolina
including Columbia. Widespread flash flooding with locally
significant impacts is likely through the mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 15Z showed an axis of heavy
rainfall extending north-south over southern to central SC. This
band is redeveloping on the south end and shifting north, nearly
along its axis causing hourly rates of 2.5"/hr. This particular
band is tracking into Columbia which is rather flood prone. The
axis of heavy rain has been co-located with an area of strong low
level moisture flux convergence in a plume of 2.2 to 2.5" PW which
is the core of moisture streaming ahead of Helene on southerly
35kt low level flow. Instability is rather limited decreasing from
1500 J/kg near the SC coast to less than 500 J/kg near Columbia,
but this is overcome from strong dynamics where the mean layer
southerly flow is 40kt and oriented with the activity, causing
training.

Recent HRRR runs are under doing this band and feature more
scattered convective modes through the mid-afternoon. However, the
channeling of this flow between the upper low that remains over
western TN and the ridge east of FL will maintain redeveloping
advection and banding ahead of Helene. Given little change in the
forcing mechanisms in place, heavy rain potential will continue
into the mid-afternoon across many of the same locations already
seeing heavy rain. While FFG was rather elevated over these areas,
it is quickly dropping as heavy rain spreads in. The extreme rates
warrants likely wording for the flash flood risk.

There should be some break in heavy rain here later this afternoon
before banding from Helene returns this evening as the system
passes to the west.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9fBehw2pX7PEGQstADx09gJFOvfS4Qj-UaJx0xcfY3AQGxWXiv4sAJ7E03NeNYZnxxIo= fU3iR6DYtSSLRq3nBO_Z9dk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35078146 34428010 33737988 32777985 32068065=20
31248119 31618254 32388283 32908317 33288314=20
33428275 33828248 34488209 35048177=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261853
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1068
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...Central FL Panhandle into central GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261852Z - 270000Z

Summary...Nearly continuous rainfall with rates of 1-3"/hr will
persist into this evening ahead of Hurricane Helene. Training of
these rates will result in widespread additional rainfall of 2-3"
by this evening, with local maxima around 5" possible. This will
expand and enhance ongoing flash flooding, with significant
impacts likely in the central FL Panhandle.

Discussion...The GOES-E visible imagery this afternoon shows a
well defined and intensifying Hurricane Helene across the Gulf of
Mexico blifting north towards the Florida Panhandle. Downstream of
Helene, impressive moisture advection is persisting on
strengthening SE flow around the hurricane, driving PWs to as high
as 2.5" as measured by GPS, which is above the daily record for
the central FL Panhandle and into southern GA. This exceptionally
moist air is pivoting northward into an area of intense deep layer
ascent driven via strong mid-level divergence overlapping the
diffluent RRQ of a northward arcing jet streak. Additionally, a
cold front draped from northern GA into the Gulf of Mexico is
helping to produce focused moisture convergence along which heavy
rain rates will train. 24-hr MRMS rainfall across this region has
been generally 4-8" with locally as much as 12", and ongoing
rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are producing MRMS FLASH unit streamflow
responses as high as 300-500 cfs/smi. Flash flooding is currently
ongoing.

During the next several hours, moisture north of Helene will
continue to surge northward and impinge into a region of focused
ascent from the central FL Panhandle to as far north as Atlanta,
GA. This will likely result in both an expansion and
intensification of rainfall, with rates potentially peaking around
3"/hr in stronger convection, although will more commonly be
1-2"/hr. The strengthening 850mb inflow will not only enhance
moisture transport, resulting in stronger moisture convergence
onshore and into the front, but also cause Corfidi vectors to
become anti-parallel to the flow near the Gulf Coast, merging
towards parallel along the front. This suggests increased
backbuilding and training of echoes within spiraling and
convergent convective clusters, and the HREF neighborhood
probabilities indicate a 30-60% chance for 3" from the Forgotten
Coast of FL northward along the front into central GA, while the
WoFS confines the highest probabilities to the FL Panhandle where
locally 4-5" is possible.

This rain will be occurring atop soils that are fully saturated
from heavy 24-hr rainfall,. This is reflected by NASA SPoRT 0-10cm
RSM that is above 85%, and resultant 3-hr FFG as low as 0.75-1.5".
This will likely be exceeded in many areas, and where the heaviest
rates train across the most vulnerable soils, especially in the
vicinity of Apalachicola, resultant impacts will become
significant even before Helene's landfall later this evening.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_7khhClvHcPtlBSpgtOfIakkpGRxqIeRTsrNUjQnq9y-bUW8tULnGe2DZ7IL5tEjAiGA= -rrTUb2Xp09nXL4SOToL8Us$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34078422 33438374 32898324 32088278 31858354=20
31248398 30698390 30068403 29838433 29528491=20
29678553 30278618 31508624 33388549 34058495=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262036
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-270230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1069
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...North Georgia, Western Carolinas into Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 262034Z - 270230Z

Summary...Swaths of heavy rain rates ahead of Helene will continue
through this evening over portions of north Georgia and the
western Carolinas into Southwest Virginia, including mainly the
eastern side of the Southern Appalachians. Rainfall rates of
1-2"/hr will continue, which through repeating rounds could
produce 2-3" of rain and local maxima of 5" through 02Z. This will
enhance flash flooding, with significant impacts
continuing/expanding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic late this afternoon shows
continued swaths of heavy rain over north Georgia and western SC
with continued enhancements of rainfall over the eastern slopes of
the Southern Appalachians. This is associated with a pronounced
moisture plume streaming north from Hurricane Helene which is now
west of Tampa Bay. PWs within this moisture plume have been are
2.25 to 2.5" with southeasterly flow of 20 to 35kt over central
GA/SC expected to shift over the southern Appalachians over the
next couple hours. Instability remains limited, 200 to 500 J/kg of
MUCAPE, but deep layer ascent is impressive. Mid-level divergence
between Helene and a pronounced upper low remaining over far
western TN is combining with a nearly stationary poleward arcing
jet streak from AL to KY with favorable right entrance dynamics
over the region. In this environment, recent rainfall rates are
estimated from KGSP and KFFC as up to 1.5"/hr which can be
expected to continue through the evening. There is a notable gap
in reflectivity over southeast GA and north FL Peninsula between
bands, which should provide relief over the next few hours for
southern portions of this outlook area.

The impressive moisture advection combining with nearly unchanging
robust ascent will result in continuous rainfall into areas that
have already received 4 to 10" in the past 24 hours. This rainfall
occurring atop saturated soils, sensitive terrain, and ongoing
flash flooding with further enhanced impacts across the region
which is still prior to the actual intense rainfall from Helene
herself. This additional rainfall should quickly result in further life-threatening flash flooding.

Locally catastrophic rainfall impacts are expected overnight as
the core of Helene approaches, so please pay attention to further
discussions and see the latest info on Helene at hurricanes dot
gov.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4xwbFyCSaIjD0lOy9jJCTMDNq9YO2viUOiTuIBxURGuk_Fhpm3Sj8GErapO0FTqetHEF= PrhSeHGWTzeYUwxBWij4zk0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36978187 36798079 35098067 33848074 32548124=20
33028323 33988422 34478481 35358494 35808371=20
36188283 36578241=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262308
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-270500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1070
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
707 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...Florida Big Bend well up into Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 262305Z - 270500Z

Summary...Hurricane Helene will make landfall late this evening
along the Florida Big Bend with inner bands progressing up Georgia
and converging on a stationary front over eastern AL. The eyewall
will impact the Big Bend area 02 to 05Z which will include heavy
rainfall that will exacerbate the extreme impacts from wind and
storm surge there.

Discussion...
GOES-E IR imagery and regional NEXRAD here at 23Z depict a well
defined eye on Helene with a central dense overcast extending into
Apalachee Bay. Outer bands extend north through the Atlanta metro
with a sharp cutoff on the west side on the stationary front that
is just into AL. Extreme moisture advection persists ahead of
Helene on ever strengthening cyclonic flow with 2.5"+ PW in the
inner core of the storm. This exceptionally moist air continues to
pivot northward into an area of intense deep layer ascent driven
via strong mid-level divergence overlapping the diffluent right
entrance portion of a northward arcing jet streak over northern
AL.

Continuous rainfall with rates around 1"/hr will persist ahead of
Helene with embedded areas of 2"/hr in the heaviest bands through
midnight. Training of these rates will result in widespread
additional rainfall of 2-3" by midnight. A corridor of 3 to 6"
along and west of the eyewall, which includes Tallahassee, is
forecast through 05Z by the 20Z HRRR which seems reasonable given
the increasing forward speed of the hurricane. The area southwest
of Tallahassee which has seen 6-10" over the past 24hrs is progged
to be just west this eyewall maxima through 04Z.

Expect flooding concerns to continue in the Atlanta metro this
evening with the additional couple inches. However, the greater
threat for Atlanta is early Friday morning as the remnant eye
passes to the east. Further details on rainfall from that will
come from overnight products.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Fc9ClftjhxX5P-7NSu5XVb-QG-6u58Ed4VSc4s42YzqbugDcCEmasYtyB5Pdq8iHhty= FNWtpcABnvYSl_JOUc5Za6w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34218470 33868416 32948314 31568276 30448259=20
29618275 29158322 29818392 29518483 29658539=20
30228586 30348596 31698596 32868571=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270234
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-270830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1071
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1034 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...northeastern GA into the western Carolinas and
southwestern VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270230Z - 270830Z

Summary...Additional 1-3 inch rainfall totals, with localized 3-5
inches into the Blue Ridge Mountains, are expected through 08Z
across GA/SC/NC. Flash flooding is ongoing and will only worsen
and expand with time.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery from 0215Z showed widespread
rain across much of the southeastern U.S. but with gaps over
portions of SC in advance of an outer rain band from Helene
tracking across the southeastern SC/GA border. A combination of
MRMS and gauge reports showed peak rainfall rates ranging between
0.5 to 1.5 in/hr across the upslope favored terrain of the
southern Appalachians, specifically the Blue Ridge Mountains.

Instability remains low in the vicinity of the terrain, less than
250 J/kg (via 02Z SPC mesoanalysis data), increasing to over 1000
J/kg near the SC/GA coast. However, strong forcing, including
30-40 kt of southeasterly 925-850 mb winds (via KGSP and TCLT VAD
wind data) was favorably oriented into the mountains, beneath
divergent and diffluent flow aloft to the east of a closed low
over southeastern MO and in advance of Hurricane Helene.

No major changes to the current setup are expected through 08Z
with the core of Helene perhaps just getting into the southern
portions of the MPD threat area around 08Z. However, some increase
in instability across inland is anticipated as Helene tracks
northward overnight and an increase in the 925-850 mb wind into
the 50-70 kt range overspreads the region. Rainfall rates of 0.5
to 1.5 in/hr at times will continue with an additional 1-3 inches
for many areas from northeastern GA into central and western SC/NC
with locally 3 to 5 inch additional totals for the terrain.

These rains will continue to make for an extremely dangerous
situation later tonight as the core of Helene's rainfall arrives
later this morning, for which another MPD will be issued.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8507ghn4_OfQ0msZxABfsw7hon-pAhQj4dJCRsRRojdNrckPRvz-ZJgfoZjuT2HuVaWq= zTeXznXhxMAZ7LnLrC83l1s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36968025 36658015 36228066 34778055 33538070=20
32718117 32598203 32798287 33448393 34458474=20
35228414 36048240 36758121=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270526
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-270845-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1072
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
125 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...northern FL into GA and far eastern AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270522Z - 270845Z

Summary...Heavy rain from Helene's inner core to track NNE across
GA through 08Z with an additional 3-5 inches through 09Z. Farther
west, an axis of heavy rain is likely to develop 06-08Z. Rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr will be common but localized rates near 3 in/hr
will be found with Helene's eyewall.

Discussion...Hurricane Helene was located just north of the FL/GA
border, about 10 miles west of VLD, moving toward the NNE with an
average 3-hr speed of ~28 kt calculated via hourly NHC position
updates through 05Z. Radar imagery showed the heaviest rain
located in the northern eyewall, while rain was considerably
lighter in the southern semicircle of Helene's inner core. A
second band of heavy rain was located northwest of the eyewall,
pivoting over ABY to just east of TLH with training from NNE to
SSW supporting increasing rainfall rates over the past hour. While
accurate ground truth is difficult to assess along the path of a
landfalling hurricane, MRMS-derived hourly rainfall has been
between 1-3 inches over the past 3 hours to the north of Helene
while waves of higher rainfall intensity have overspread central
to northwestern GA with rainfall rates occasionally peaking above
1 in/hr.

Helene is expected to maintain a similar forward speed and track
through 08Z with the core of the heaviest rain, associated with
Helene's eyewall, tracking NNE across east-central GA. Rainfall
rates of 1-3 in/hr are likely but with 15-minute rates of 0.5 to 1
inch, leading to the rapid accumulation of water on the surface.
This will especially be true as this path will take some of
Helene's highest rainfall rates across a stripe of 5-8 inches
which is estimated to have fallen in a stripe from near Dublin, GA
to just west of Augusta over the past 24 hours.

Farther west, low level convergence along an axis near or just
east of the AL/GA border is expected to enhance rainfall intensity
in the 07-09Z time frame. It is here where easterly winds of 30-50
kt in the 925-850 mb layer will meet and converge with northerly
to NNW winds over eastern AL. Mean steering flow oriented similar
to the expected axis of convergence will allow for rainfall rates
of 1-2 in/hr to develop later this morning, along with areas of
flash flooding where these higher rates overlap with heavy rain
which has fallen over the past 24-48 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-dMr0O-UIluqAyzpaY-o-LBoOGwkGEzXvhFtHGLzx9FBfZHrYr_um9N-tU_9d-CsWFaZ= jHhucZ022GapPFymvOYJtJY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...HUN...JAX...MRX...
OHX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35428610 35328552 34728498 34258438 34158318=20
33508200 32108176 31148206 30428267 30208366=20
30498471 31228523 33048573 34658633=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270834
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-271430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
434 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...northeastern GA into western SC/NC and
southwestern VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270830Z - 271430Z

SUMMARY...Severe to catastrophic flash flooding will be likely for
portions of western SC/TN this morning. Additional rainfall totals
of 4 to 7 inches, at least locally through 14Z, will pose a threat
to life with potential for landslides due to saturated soils and
swollen rivers/creeks.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Helene was located over eastern GA at 08Z,
just north of Eastman, tracking rapidly toward the NNE between
25-30 kt over the past 6 hours. Water vapor imagery showed Helene
interacting with a closed upper level low over northeastern AR,
which is expected to cause the hurricane to turn toward the
northwest later this morning. Recent trends in infrared satellite
imagery showed some cloud top warming with Helene, indicative of
weakening, but Helene remained a large and powerful tropical
system with a symmetric appearance in colder cloud tops.

925-850 mb winds were strongest to the east of Helene, with VAD
wind data at KCLX showing 80-90 kt, with area VAD winds showing
50-70 kt from the western NC/SC border into northeastern GA.
Gradual weakening of these winds is expected over the next 3-6
hours and the quick northward motion will at least limit the
duration of extreme moist ascent into the terrain but a
significant duration of high rainfall rates is still anticipated
into portions of the Blue Ridge. As Helene continues its northward
track, expect rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr to expand northward with
potential for some terrain locations to see 2-4 hours of rainfall
rates near/above 1 in/hr.

Estimated rainfall totals (via multi-sensor MRMS output) showed 6
to 12+ inches of rain have fallen over the past 48 hours from
northeastern GA into western SC/NC along the southeast facing
slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Areas of flash flooding are
already ongoing and widespread across the region and an additional
4 to 7 inches (locally) through 14Z is expected to produce severe
to catastrophic levels of flash flooding with potential for
landslides and threats to life and property. Experimental WoFS
data from 07Z showed the probability of exceeding 5 inches through
13Z to be 70+ percent in eastern Yancey County and 40+ percent in
southern Haywood County (both in western NC) where upslope
enhancement is expected to be maximized due to terrain influences.
This is a high confidence forecast and there is strong model
support for the location of heaviest rainfall over the next 6
hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6BXGboausFe1dFHEiggLoycQfFYguQddmc1l6ql4tPcwOUxq0f4KHkNLNTZrwJ9HZ-Kg= OZrLR79MqaNqyDooGeKqodo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...MRX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36918091 36708038 35898033 34948050 34238069=20
32818146 32448197 32538252 32798296 33168308=20
33918302 34638360 35238396 35928289 36668161=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270847
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-271430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1073...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Corrected for typo in summary section

Areas affected...northeastern GA into western SC/NC and
southwestern VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270830Z - 271430Z

SUMMARY...Severe to catastrophic flash flooding will be likely for
portions of western SC/NC this morning. Additional rainfall totals
of 4 to 7 inches, at least locally through 14Z, will pose a threat
to life with potential for landslides due to saturated soils and
swollen rivers/creeks.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Helene was located over eastern GA at 08Z,
just north of Eastman, tracking rapidly toward the NNE between
25-30 kt over the past 6 hours. Water vapor imagery showed Helene
interacting with a closed upper level low over northeastern AR,
which is expected to cause the hurricane to turn toward the
northwest later this morning. Recent trends in infrared satellite
imagery showed some cloud top warming with Helene, indicative of
weakening, but Helene remained a large and powerful tropical
system with a symmetric appearance in colder cloud tops.

925-850 mb winds were strongest to the east of Helene, with VAD
wind data at KCLX showing 80-90 kt, with area VAD winds showing
50-70 kt from the western NC/SC border into northeastern GA.
Gradual weakening of these winds is expected over the next 3-6
hours and the quick northward motion will at least limit the
duration of extreme moist ascent into the terrain but a
significant duration of high rainfall rates is still anticipated
into portions of the Blue Ridge. As Helene continues its northward
track, expect rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr to expand northward with
potential for some terrain locations to see 2-4 hours of rainfall
rates near/above 1 in/hr.

Estimated rainfall totals (via multi-sensor MRMS output) showed 6
to 12+ inches of rain have fallen over the past 48 hours from
northeastern GA into western SC/NC along the southeast facing
slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Areas of flash flooding are
already ongoing and widespread across the region and an additional
4 to 7 inches (locally) through 14Z is expected to produce severe
to catastrophic levels of flash flooding with potential for
landslides and threats to life and property. Experimental WoFS
data from 07Z showed the probability of exceeding 5 inches through
13Z to be 70+ percent in eastern Yancey County and 40+ percent in
southern Haywood County (both in western NC) where upslope
enhancement is expected to be maximized due to terrain influences.
This is a high confidence forecast and there is strong model
support for the location of heaviest rainfall over the next 6
hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-99ZlzKPoaY5oreX2caTIot_Hou5qjA2r3pym3ovkclWo7KpD6tZRnoLlqWy6L6D9NrN= xVrOfCbZGYn5ZXsTvqcKFB4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...MRX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36918091 36708038 35898033 34948050 34238069=20
32818146 32448197 32538252 32798296 33168308=20
33918302 34638360 35238396 35928289 36668161=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270932
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-271530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1074
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...northwestern GA into northeastern AL and Middle
TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270930Z - 271530Z

SUMMARY...A pivoting axis of heavy rain is expected to focus a
threat for flash flooding from northwestern GA into northeastern
AL and Middle TN this morning. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr,
highest to the south and east, are likely with additional rainfall
of 2-4 inches through 15Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 09Z showed Tropical Storm
Helene's inner core tracking northward toward the central SC/GA
border. Bands of heavy rain also extended west of the center of
circulation into portions of western GA, northeastern AL and
Middle TN. MRMS and gauge data showed rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0
in/hr for most areas west of Helene, but localized rain rates of
1-2 in/hr were estimated via MRMS to the northeast of CSG where
locally higher instability (up to 500 J/kg) was present via 09Z
SPC mesoanalysis data. However, instability values into TN were
quite low at or below 250 J/kg. The bands of heavy rain from
western GA into the tri-state region of GA/AL/TN appeared to be
associated with a low level axis of convergence, centered in the
925-850 mb layer between strong easterly winds to the north of
Helene and northwesterly winds in eastern AL.

Despite the lack of greater instability, strong low level
convergence was present within a very moist airmass characterized
by precipitable water values of 2 inches in Middle TN, increasing
to over 2.5 inches in west-central GA. In addition, water vapor
imagery revealed a diffluent flow pattern aloft across the region.
RAP forecasts show the low level convergence axis slowly pivoting
cyclonically about a point near the tri-state region (GA/AL/TN)
through 15Z with southeasterly steering flow aligned with the
convergence axis at times, which will allow for repeating and
training areas of heavy rain. Due to the limited instability in
place, rainfall rates may struggle to climb above 1 in/hr across
northwestern locations, but a semi-longer duration heavy rainfall
event is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain in a 6 hour
period from portions of Middle TN into northeastern AL and
northwestern GA. Flash flooding is considered likely, especially
in northwestern GA where some areas of flash flooding are ongoing
due to recent heavy rain from Helene.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7AYmDCoLBC9MuXMcaVEpzMGmk5cgMJautne6I2glSen1g0lOTdHbzVKLrFnQ4YhMkl7y= ZfoQhJA-U90jAr7Ic9iKQlI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36528620 36188562 35438513 34358387 33988352=20
33438330 32758353 32688457 33558577 34798679=20
36038742 36488722=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271006
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-271600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1075
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
605 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...coastal/eastern SC into central/southern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271004Z - 271600Z

SUMMARY...Possible training and repeating of heavy rain associated
with Tropical Storm Helene could produce localized flash flooding
from central to coastal SC into central/southern NC through 16Z.
The potential for 1-3 in/hr rainfall rates will exist.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 0950Z showed an outer rain
band to the east of T.S. Helene focusing from the offshore waters
of SC across the Charleston metro into central SC. Numerous cells
were observed to be repeating across the region with brief
training supporting MRMS-derived rainfall rates occasionally over
1 in/hr. These cells were located with a very moist environment
(2.3 to 2.6 inch precipitable water values) and MLCAPE of 500-1500
J/kg via the 09Z SPC mesoanalysis.

As Helene continues a northward to an eventual northwestward
motion this morning, bands of heavy rain on the east side of
Helene are expected to advance northward up the coast into the Pee
Dee region and eventually central to southern NC. A general
progressive motion is expected to these cells, but periods of
stalling will be possible with the rainfall axis which could
support locally higher rainfall rates, with 2-3 in/hr not out of
the question. Some overlap of these rain bands with an axis of 2-5
inches which impacted locations between CHS and MYR toward FLO.
Additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches will be possible through
16Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8x45YJlt0BreI5eIeMsUFdDZTZJZFP1Q8DnSl9-9XX9ACV5zepE0nuWTD07znH416Jdk= ft-ka-X-eARSPPMyxZlhbyE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35667896 35087808 34027782 33397861 32557929=20
32387970 32918039 34138092 35428010=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271313
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-271810-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1076
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
913 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...Upstate SC, western NC, far northeastern TN,
southwest VA, and southern WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 271310Z - 271810Z

SUMMARY...Life-threatening flash flooding and the likelihood of
catastrophic impacts to continue across much of the southern
Appalachians through at least early this afternoon with an
additional 2-4" of rain.

DISCUSSION...The center of Tropical Storm Helene is racing
northward and entering Upstate SC as of 1245Z. Along with it
resides an area of 2-3" per hour rainfall rates (via MRMS) in what
is the leftovers of a northern eyewall over western NC. Peak
3-hourly rainfall observations from NWS/AWOS/ARL sites also
confirm these amounts. This torrential rainfall is occurring over
a region that has experienced widespread rainfall amounts of 5-12"
over the last 24 hours, making for a particularly dangerous and life-threatening situation as ground conditions are already
oversaturated and FFGs remain extremely low. Flash flooding is
ongoing and will likely continue/worsen over at least the next few
hours across western NC.

A large area of 60-80 kt southeasterly 850mb winds per the 11z RAP
on the eastern periphery of Helene are leading to an extremely
favorable upslope enhancement across western NC orthogonal to the
Blue Ridge/southern Appalachians, along with record-breaking PWs
(per the NAEFS ESAT) in the 2-2.5" range surging northward. This
along with nearby MUCAPE values of 500 J/kg advecting northeast
and wet bulb zero heights above 14k feet (near the daily record
for GSO per SPC's sounding climo) will allow for warm rain
processes.

The only positive news is that Helene continues to race north at
30 mph (per NHC) and lead to a quick exit of this extreme
rainfall, with intense rates ending across Upstate SC first by 14Z
and western NC by around 16Z. However, this region will also take
the brunt of the tropical moisture surge and the highest
additional totals. Heavy rain will slide northward as it exits the
western Carolinas and impact regions of southwest VA and southern
WV with rainfall rates of 1-2" per the 06z HREF through 19-20Z.
This region also remains mostly saturated after 1-3" of rain over
the past 24 hours.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6ecx4mCqBJ8EKCSwJa6MWjyHZvbUGxePGOkFskfSW7xeiBJZ65S7AMiTPU4I3Bz9-hEq= Nh3RMBfd1a3mcT0f0UD9Fhw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37928066 37767976 37107967 35968032 35158118=20
34928231 35008318 35328353 36048310 36828245=20
37678156=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271526
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-272124-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1077
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...Eastern NC into central VA and parts of central
WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 271524Z - 272124Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers expanding northward with the main plume of
tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm Helene will shift
into the central Appalachians this afternoon and could contain
rainfall rates of 1-2", likely producing areas of flash flooding.
Line of showers and thunderstorms progressing east-northeast
across central/eastern NC extending into central VA this afternoon
may briefly train and create flash flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION...The center of Tropical Storm Helene is crossing the
southern Appalachians late this morning as broad, strong
southeasterly flow continues to pump a moist tropical airmass into
the Mid-Atlantic. The core of the 850mb jet (50-60+ kts) is
lifting northward along with the warm conveyor of moisture
stretching all the way back to the Gulf of Mexico. Favorable
upslope flow into the central Appalachians and central/northern VA
section of the Blue Ridge will support hourly rainfall rates of
1-2", which will likely overwhelm widespread hourly FFGs less than
1" in the sensitive terrain of VA. MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg
just east of the Blue Ridge will also increase chances for locally
intense rainfall where embedded storms wrap northwestward around
the main circulation. HREF neighborhood probabilities for
exceeding 3-hourly FFG are high (>80%) along the Blue Ridge of
central/northern VA.

Rainfall rates per MRMS in the N-S oriented line of storms across
central NC are in the 1-3" range. Although mostly moving
progressively northeastward, parallel upper flow supports the
potential for brief training, which could lead to areas of flash
flooding. The environment also contains PWs of 2-2.5" and MLCAPE
of 1000-2000 J/kg advected northward from the coastal Carolinas.
Storms should be able to maintain themselves and could turn
supercellular as effective bulk shear remains elevated and above
50 kts for much of the Carolinas. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" are
possible per the latest CAMs. 06z HREF neighborhood probabilities
for at least 3" in 3-hours (also near the regions FFG) are around
20-40%.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9LAnIh76x0XonNy9VIfOOyeqma8uMwP59ReP_XMWoMHl_6ydaE5MSVX_Mdughrg9q9Ws= wXv5tqDRBY9msiH0PLRtHk0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...LWX...MHX...PBZ...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38987981 38947853 38277766 37087713 35327700=20
33987753 33797853 35727890 37057961 37738073=20
38448075=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271804
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-272300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1078
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...Lower Ohio Valley into the Appalachians of
WV/VA/NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271802Z - 272300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing around Tropical
Storm Helene will train to the NW through the afternoon. Rainfall
rates as high as 1.5"/hr are likely, which through this training
could produce 1-3" of rain. Additional flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows an
expansive area of rainfall from the MS VLY eastward into the
coastal Mid-Atlantic states. This precipitation shield is
associated with the interaction of Tropical Storm Helene and an
upper low centered near western TN. Drier air noted in WV imagery
being ingested into Helene is impinging into an axis of higher
boundary layer theta-e air over NC, driving local ascent to help
to reinvigorate convection within this moist plume. PWs measured
by GPS are generally 1.9 to 2.4 inches, nearing daily records,
with U/A soundings featuring deep moist-adiabatic lapse rates to
support efficient warm-rain processes. Instability is severely
limited west of the Appalachians as noted via the SPC RAP
analysis, but a ribbon of MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg over NC is
slowly advecting westward on impressive 850mb SE inflow of 40-50
kts.

The evolution the next few hours is somewhat uncertain across this
region due to CAM disagreement, but the models appear to be
under-analyzing the current convective regeneration along the
theta-e gradient across NC. This suggests that the overlap of
ascent and thermodynamics is still robust, and sufficient to drive
new convection to the NW through the aftn. The pronounced 850mb
inflow should help advect the higher instability NW as well, which
will support an expansion of rain rates which the HREF
neighborhood probabilities suggest have a 20-40% chance of
exceeding 1"hr at times. Mean storm motions will remain
progressive on 0-6km winds of around 40 kts, but the accompanying
850mb wind evolution will also result in collapsing and veering
Corfidi vectors to become more anti-parallel to the flow
indicating an increased potential for backbuilding and training.
While the CAMs disagree on the greatest risk area for heavy
rainfall this aftn, there is a 90% chance for 1"+ and 10-30%
chance for 3+" of rain in both the HREF and REFS ensembles where
the most pronounced training occurs.

Much of this area has seen heavy rainfall the past 24-hrs reaching
1-2" in the lower OH VLY and as much as 4-6" in SW VA. This
suggests that the most vulnerable soils will remain in the terrain
of the Appalachians of WV/VA and far eastern KY, but even into the
OH VLY 3-hr FFG has fallen to around 1.5", and HREF FFG
probabilities indicate a 20-50% chance of exceeding these values.
While the greatest risk for flash flood impacts will be in the
Appalachians atop the most saturated soils, any training could
cause flash flooding into the evening.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4omrvPxFtolww6G2BzTDPQAYMxMUGNsW76EE3xIbu6Wu_zyaBoWT_l1x4nLoC3RZAmDM= TUoM0yEMkXX8UP1QWgWlX4c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39508400 39448269 39058161 38338063 37347964=20
36577943 36027944 35767998 35838043 36218101=20
36748170 37198252 37818367 38168437 38278454=20
38588491 39098472=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272131
FFGMPD
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-280201-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
530 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...Southeast VA, eastern MD, far southern DE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272130Z - 280201Z

Summary...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms with 2-3"/hr rain
rates continue to lift northward this evening. Through training,
these rates could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher
amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this evening shows a
cluster of thunderstorms lifting northward out of far northeast
North Carolina towards Richmond and as far north as the Middle
Peninsula of VA. These thunderstorms are lifting northward on mean
0-6km winds of around 40 kts, so remain progressive, but are
containing MRMS measured hourly rainfall accumulations of 2-2.5
inches. These impressive rain rates are being fueled by an axis of
tropical moisture characterized by PWs of 2-2.4 inches, above the
daily maximum for the region according to the SPC sounding
climatology, funneling northward around the periphery of what is
now Post-T.C. Helene over Kentucky. An axis of SBCAPE exceeding
500 J/kg is collocated with this PW plume, providing rich
thermodynamics to support continued convection as ascent persists
through 850mb wind convergence, modest upper jet diffluence, and a
weak shortwave impulse rotating within the flow. This heavy rain
has already resulted CREST unit streamflow responses above 500
cfs/smi, leading to multiple active FFWs.

The high-res CAMs differ in their evolution the next few hours,
but the latest NAMNest appears to be handling the current
convective activity the best, followed by the recent run of the
HRRR which has caught onto to the eastward shift. These runs
suggest convection will persist as it heads north, but will begin
to encounter weaker instability into MD/DE. Some of this will be
offset by thermodynamic advection as low level 850mb inflow pushes
higher PW and instability to the north, but in general this should
result in a slow wane of the intensity of this convection. This is
reflected as well both by HRRR 15-min rainfall accumulations and
HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1-hr rainfall exceeding 1"
peaking around 20%. However, as propagation vectors veer to become
more aligned into the more rich thermodynamics, this could result
in short-term backbuilding and training to lengthen the duration
of these rain rates leading to corridors of rainfall that could
reach 2-3" in some areas.

As long as the intense rain rates persist, they will pose a risk
for flash flooding. However, much of eastern MD and DE has been
dry recently, leading to elevated FFG that only has a 5-10% chance
of being exceeded. This suggests the greatest risk for any impacts
will be across SE VA, or where any training can move across an
urban area through the evening.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!58W3cin_F4YkP2J__5_J-CiJOa7wa4Omsm_-6tOtquI9E3w5FH3fx4cjnChviSZyme61= z-NO63IO2h5zNFfqtn0m3WA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38937572 38847530 38727506 38427502 38047501=20
37617524 37267557 36987568 36677580 36407595=20
36147616 36107656 36277695 36557747 37127763=20
37707746 38437693 38827659 38927623=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281521
FFGMPD
FLZ000-281930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1080
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1120 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Areas affected...Southwest Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281520Z - 281930Z

SUMMARY...Training convection tracking northeast into the west
coast of Florida is producing rates to 2.5 inches per hour. Flash
flooding is possible, especially in urban areas.

DISCUSSION... The remnant trailing front behind Helene is nearly
stationary across central Florida this morning. Localized
convergence zones have developed within the broader frontal
boundary that have been forcing storms that have a history of
producing rainfall rates to 2.5 inches per hour. While each
individual cell is moving along at around 20 mph, the
redevelopment of convection is resulting in multiple cells moving
across urban and flood-prone areas. PWAT values to 2.5 inches are
draped across the Ft. Myers area, with a distinct moisture
boundary over the Tampa area. SBCAPE values are over 2,500 J/kg
with MUCAPE over 3,000 J/kg already.

These very high values of both moisture and instability will
support additional thunderstorm development into the afternoon
across the Florida Gulf Coast. HiRes guidance has been variable on
how long the storms will last, but given the ample moisture and
instability both in place and will continue to be advected in from
the Gulf, it appears probable that the storms capable of heavy
rainfall rates will continue in this region. Given some of the
CAMs guidance that are struggling to depict the activity going on
right now are the drier solutions, have opted to favor the wetter
guidance such as the 12Z HRRR and ARW for the near-term forecast.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8NOzAGnQK_Ymn8rhoRarwBOyVyP5WpUO6cob4aHz_1UFaJzjVQ8Tq1Szu9-dyOnVR7_1= 6YVqY_81uO_PJibE70iu5_c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 28258185 27958140 27528123 26688140 26358172=20
26398198 26508229 27558281 27808287 28108287=20
28198256=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291744
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-292300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1081
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
143 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Areas affected...Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291743Z - 292300Z

Summary...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will develop and
lift northward through the afternoon. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr
within these cells could repeat to produce 1-3" of rainfall. This
occurring atop pre-saturated soils may result in instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows
widespread light showers across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic,
with embedded convective elements beginning to blossom across
VA/WV. This convective activity is deepening in response to a
ribbon of 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE which has expanded across the
area south of a wedge front and north of a stationary front. PWs
of 1.5-1.7 inches, or above the 90th percentile according to the
SPC sounding climatology, are contributing to intensifying
thermodynamics to support this convective activity. Forcing for
ascent is additionally intensifying downstream of an upper low
over KY, with SE 850mb winds of 10-15 kts lifting isentropically
and orographically to combine with upper divergence and
diffluence.

As the aftn progresses, the high-res CAMs are in good agreement
that convective coverage will expand in response to the increasing
ascent within the favorable thermodynamics. Although coverage will
likely remain scattered, aligned Corfidi vectors and mean 0-6km
winds suggests repeating rounds of convection are likely in many
areas. These thunderstorms will likely intensify through the aftn
as well to produce rainfall rates for which both the HREF and REFS
neighborhood probabilities indicate have a 40-50% of exceeding
1"/hr, and 15-min HRRR fields indicate an isolated potential for
2"/hr rates. Despite the progressive and scattered nature of these
cells, multiple rounds lifting N/NW into the area could produce
rainfall amounts of 1-3" in some areas.

This region has been saturated recently, noted by 7-day rainfall
departures from AHPS that area in most areas 300-600% of normal.
This has led to fully saturated soils and compromised FFG that is
as low as 0.75-1.5" in 3 hours. The HREF FFG exceedance
probabilities peak as high as 70% by this evening, highest in the
vicinity of Shenandoah NP and into the Allegheny Mountains.
However, flash flooding will be possible anywhere the most intense
rates repeat atop the saturated soils or across vulnerable terrain.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5tyMelmmVF7n88FDockXczyN7XEko1ADrfkvKXVVWSxA1IUbf-vVuPhKDK20snOiGBUR= 9tFNj56tN_Y3DUjIjjnURn8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILN...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39688000 39577916 39057841 38017819 36697888=20
36398001 36428122 36648186 37068204 37588244=20
37798310 38078343 38628344 39078263 39468140=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 292251
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-300400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1082
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
651 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Areas affected...Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292250Z - 300400Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity during the next few hours. Rainfall rates
within thunderstorms could reach 1-2"/hr, resulting in axes of
1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening indicates that
convective coverage is finally beginning to expand and intensify
across parts of Virginia. This is occurring in response to a slow
rise in favorable thermodynamics noted by the SPC RAP analysis of
SBCAPE reaching above 500 J/kg, coincident with PWs that are above
the 90th climatological percentile at 1.6-1.8 inches. Into this
overlapping moisture/instability, ascent is intensifying through
height falls and divergence downstream of an upper low positioned
over KY, topped by modest LFQ upper diffluence, and in the
presence of 15 kts of 850mb inflow out of the SE. Not only is this
inflow advecting the more robust thermodynamics northward into
VA/WV, it is also increasing ascent through convergence along the
nose of these higher wind speeds and through both isentropic and
orographic response to this wind trajectory. Rainfall rates within
the stronger convection have produced MRMS measured 1-hr rainfall
over 1 inch in southern VA.

Although the guidance has been a tad aggressive with convective
intensity this aftn, likely due to a slower increase in favorable
instability, the recent radar returns suggest this evolution is
beginning. The convection over southern VA should continue to
expand and then push N/NW on 0-6km winds that will gradually back
from SW to S at 15-20 kts through the evening. This evolution is
supported by most available high-res models, and despite the
generally progressive motion of cells, repeating rounds are likely
as storms regenerate into the stronger thermodynamics and pivot
northward. The HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1"/hr (2"/hr)
rain rates peak this evening above 60% (20%), greatest in the
higher terrain where orographic lift will enhance the rainfall
intensity. Where storms can regenerate and repeat, these rain
rates could result in 1-3" of rain, with locally higher amounts
possible as progged by 10-15% HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities
for 5"/6hrs.

This area has been saturated with heavy rainfall that has been 3
to as much as 8 inches according to AHPS 7-day rainfall. This has
led to compromised FFG and 0-10cm RSM from NASA SPoRT that is
generally above 70%. Any heavy rain rates moving atop these
sensitive soils could quickly become runoff leading to instances
of flash flooding, but this appears most likely in the vulnerable
terrain from the Blue Ridge through the Allegheny Mountains.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Z26pDTsDC_CfmR6kII5vahQlRmluBqy0MaMUOFnwP0CYQBTTt4t8mZ2TGYj8lEUYn2B= BqWuIl_emAL9eJatlXBqRjU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39497924 39307868 38947824 38087791 37337793=20
36797818 36617867 36577921 36697990 37368065=20
37578109 38098128 39198033=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300414
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-301010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1083
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1213 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Areas affected...east-central VA/NC border into central VA and far
eastern WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 300412Z - 301010Z

Summary...Heavy rain showers are expected to maintain a flash
flood threat for portions of VA into WV over at least the next 3-6
hours. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr are expected, overlapping
with wet antecedent grounds.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0345Z showed an axis of
showers extending from the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains
in central VA, southeastward to the east-central VA/NC border
between I-85 and I-95. These showers were warm-topped, only -5 to
-15C on "clean channel" infrared imagery with collision and
coalescence processes dominating and have been rather efficient
despite the fact that the bulk of the available instability is
weak and limited to the 0-6 km AGL layer (via 00Z RNK/IAD and RAP
analysis soundings). MLCAPE was only a few hundred J/kg but
precipitable water values were estimated via 03Z SPC mesoanalysis
data to be 1.6 to 1.9 inches. It appears low level convergence
(925-850 mb) was playing a role in the location of these showers
with some degree of isentropic/orographic ascent aiding in lift.

Short term forecasts of instability from the RAP indicate only
gradual weakening and low level convergence of southeasterly winds
to slowly shift north over the next 3-6 hours. Rainfall rates have
been observed locally over 2 in/hr and similar potential will
exist overnight with slow moving and repeating showers likely to
continue, though some weakening should be expected where
instability is lower or decreases with time.

Much of the area still contains lower flash flood guidance due to
wet antecedent conditions due to rainfall over the past week.
Therefore, while perhaps not widespread in coverage, at least a
localized flash flood threat will be likely to continue into the
night with rainfall rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr at times. Additional
storm totals may exceed 3 inches on an isolated basis.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7HhKlGoGFEHs219g6UzHep1ggd8hE1jfE2QHhsckvMD8v7RBCZ8qXVJORjQlUqtAZbw8= AYb6HvN_FyW-RLQDqXT4DI4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38757826 38247779 37147703 36477710 36337764=20
36437820 37157878 37297994 37728022 38337988=20
38737935=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050907
FFGMPD
TXZ000-051500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1089
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
507 AM EDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Areas affected...Deep South Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050910Z - 051500Z

SUMMARY...Persistent highly saturated, unstable onshore flow may
support periods of scattered efficient showers/thunderstorms
capable of 2-2.5"/hr rates and localized 3"+ totals. Given
recently wetted grounds, additional intense rainfall may result in
possible flash flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...Large scale cyclonic gyre centered in southern Gulf
of Mexico/Western Bay of Campeche has seen a persistent convective
flare up throughout the evening. The broader easterly to
northeasterly flow has been persistent through the overnight
period and brought some transistory but intense tropical
showers/thunderstorms across Deep South Texas. The solid 15-20kts
of onshore surface to boundary layer flow has been transporting
.95-1.1" precipitable water in that layer per CIRA LPW. RAP
analysis shows small surface heating over 80F over high 70s Tds
and fairly saturated deep moisture profile to support unstable air
with SBCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/kg to support stronger updraft
strength and further vertical moisture flux to support efficient
rainfall production. Rates of 2-2.5"/hr will remain probable
throughout the morning, much as as they have for the last 6 hours
or so. Spots of up to 1.5-3" have been observed between Bayview
and Harlingen matching RADAR estimates, so values higher to the
northeast over Laguna Madre and S Kenedy county nearing 4-5" seem
plausible.=20

The area has been fairly dry and FFG values suggest that this
rainfall was able to be infiltrated fairly well, but now upper
soil profiles from this 1-3" total will have reduced FFG values
which are in the 2-3"/hr, 2.5-4"/3hr should be lowered. Over the
next six hours, the environment will remain very similar and
GOES-E 3.9um SWIR shows upstream shallow convective roll-clouds
moving through the northeasterly flow in the NE Gulf that start to
grow vertically near the coast given enhanced frictional speed
convergence. As such, similar transient thunderstorms with
2-2.5"/hr rates capable of 3-5" localized totals may continue
through the later morning hours, especially as low level flow may
increase under influence of the stregthening convective
cluster/surface reflection east of Tampico, MX. Winds may back a
bit more out of the NE, enhancing convective potential across E
Willacy and Cameron counties. HREF probability of exceeding 3" by
15z are 40-60% with 5" values near 25%. So with each passing
convective cell, the potential for localized flash flooding
increases slightly as longer term totals reach/exceed 5",
especially near urban locales.=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8hmTe7dJX7P45WsANlAz34Z0BUNVW0ohsrw7BXkxUm3ffxcgfVf9AbnldJupXx0P4hGD= ljLRRPxn6fZPq0eg9n7HfMk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 26789776 26749731 26409718 25979710 25819736=20
25989777 26059827 26259843 26619820=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051950
FFGMPD
FLZ000-060149-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1090
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern FL & the Keys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051949Z - 060149Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
showing minimal movement across southern FL. Hourly rain totals
to 3" with local totals to 6" possible over the next several hours.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are forming near sea breeze
boundaries and in the proximity to a warm front draped across
southern FL. Precipitable water values are 2.25-2.5". Low level
inflow as well as the mean 850-400 hPa flow is weak, which is
leading to minimal movement to activity across the southern tip of
the peninsula and southwest FL. Other activity lurks near the
Middle and Upper Keys. ML CAPE is approaching 2000 J/kg which is
being aided by afternoon insolation.

The concern is that with minimal cell movement that amounts which
were seen south of Florida City and west of Key Largo could
materialize across southwest FL and the Keys through the remainder
of the afternoon into the early evening, with radar estimates near
6". Areas of the West Coast in particular have been especially
wet this year with large, in places 20"+, annual surpluses.=20
Rainfall over the past week has continued this theme between Cape
Coral and Naples. Hourly rain totals to 3" with local totals to
6" remain possible into this evening, which could lead to flash
flooding of urban areas and important thoroughfares, such as US 1,
US 41, and I-75.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6wdggIxSWYv3WcBR5q0w5nDqxxgfUIsmbL4f_hRw6b-Am8lGnS7fQmlk98a0wghrMSF0= uW4BKvJe9iD1atTC6dfHMr8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 26888208 26508120 25408019 25008035 24708113=20
26428217=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061440
FFGMPD
FLZ000-062030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1091
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1039 AM EDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Areas affected...Southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061439Z - 062030Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall
rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are showing minimal movement
across portions of South Florida. Localized rainfall totals up to
5 inches are possible through 430 pm, and this will likely result
in some instances of flooding.

Discussion...Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forming near
sea breeze boundaries and in the general proximity of a stationary
front situated across southern Florida late this morning, and also
ahead of a mid-level vortmax that is slowly approaching the
southwest coast of Florida. Anomalous precipitable water values
on the order of 2.3 to 2.6 inches are in place, per recent SPC
mesoanalysis. Another concern is the very slow cell movements
that have been observed by regional Doppler radar imagery over the
past several hours, and this will likely remain the case going
into the afternoon hours, with weak low level inflow and mean
850-300 hPa flow. In addition, mixed layer CAPE is on the order
of 1500-2000 J/kg, which is being aided by midday solar insolation.

The latest CAM guidance suite depicts an increase in slow moving
convection across the southern half of the Florida Peninsula
through the mid-late afternoon hours, with localized rainfall
totals on the order of 4 to 6 inches possible. Areas of the West
Coast have picked up a few inches of rain over the past 24 hours,
and this also holds true for areas near and to the south of Miami,
and this will be an aggravating factor for flooding potential
today. Hourly rain totals to 3 inches are possible, which will
likely lead to some instances of flash flooding for urban and poor
drainage areas.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4DwTbjyxM4wmD9Fetm4TQTSU7ZNS27xGAeZ5caSE9IDroOxcn-Jbfodt26kOvWnlfg2l= eSHVU7Mf1JUsviG94L0gvk0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27728071 27568016 26987993 26117990 25518007=20
25088030 24818064 25048121 25608163 26128211=20
26528230 26938256 27188265 27228266 27428259=20
27428213 27308167 27388128=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070313
FFGMPD
FLZ000-070900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1092
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1113 PM EDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Areas affected...Southern Peninsular Florida and the Upper Keys...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070315Z - 070900Z

SUMMARY...Approaching surface frontal wave with bands of warm
advective tropical showers/thunderstorms capable of 2-2.5"/hr
rates and spots of 3-5" totals along the coasts may pose localized
urban rapid inundation flooding through overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 3.9um SWIR depicts a few boundary layer swirls
of Cu and TCu across the eastern Gulf of Mexico (main one near
25.8N 85.5W) with the frontal/convergence boundary extending
eastward to just offshore of S Sarasota county before paralleling
the SW Coast through the central Keys. VWP and RADAR mosaic
suggests a 925-850mb wave in proximity of Naples, pressing
eastward. This is spurring an increase in low level southwesterly
flow and warm advection from the Florida Channel and enhancing
convergence with new deepening convection through the central Keys
starting to arch northeastward. Relative maxima in low level
instability and available moisture along/ahead of this band are
running about 2000-2500 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.05-1.25" per CIRA LPW
values. This will allow for solid low level moisture loading for
intense tropical rain showers and be capable of an easy 2-3"/hr
rain rate, but translation/duration will be critical to pose
flooding problems.

As the aforementioned wave crosses southern FL, WAA and
southwesterly flow is expected to lift north and replace the band.
Deeper layer (700-500mb) flow appears to suggest weak ridging to
delay or allow the wave to pivot across the Everglades while the
band lifts north. This will bring stronger cells along/through
areas of Miami-Dade with those high rates through the next few
hours. There is potential the band will slow and increase
duration near the pivoting wave over the urban corridor and
present increasing duration of heavier rainfall totals with 3-5".=20
HREF probability of 40-80% of 3" and 30-50% of 5" remains across
the southern tip and up the east coast to Palm Beach county.=20=20
Given a secondary boundary/theta-e gradient is also connected to
a prior wave/WAA exists resulting in localized frictional
convergence across Broward county lifting north potentially adding
to/expanding the risk area of potential 3-5" totals by 09z. Given
proximity to urban/flat and some already saturated areas, rapid
inundation flooding may occur locally with these cells through the
overnight period and is considered possible.

Along the SW FL coast...
The potential for excessive rainfall/higher totals, is diminished
slightly compared to the SE FL coast as cells are more likely to
reside along/just offshore through the overnight period. However,
there remains solid convergence along the southeast angled frontal
zone to support similar cells from Manatee to Lee/Charlotte county
and with limited cell motions, so though the cells are likely to
remain just offshore, there remains some potential for 2-2.5"/hr
rates but could result in slightly higher overall totals if they
sneak ashore.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9_7cGQdvrEw7ej5aqDEy8Z5IxL-XzFWS6mFU4daM6-UoumjKkf6Lm_uXSparPF6aTtcP= 87H0kDMJREFSlW_QoFuAcN4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27228016 26577992 25867999 25218020 24738081=20
24798129 25718143 25828178 26208193 26538231=20
26988253 27178260 27198225 26408162 26028113=20
26028075 26568050 27178040=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071738
FFGMPD
FLZ000-072300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1093
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
137 PM EDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Areas affected...southern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071735Z - 072300Z

Summary...Slow moving and training thunderstorms will pose a flash
flood risk for southern FL through 22Z. Due to the environment,
rainfall rates will easily have the potential for 2-3 in/hr, and
may even exceed 3 in/hr on a localized basis.

Discussion...While the exact placement is a little uncertain, 17Z
surface observations showed a quasi-stationary front extending
southwestward into Palm Beach County, through the northern
Everglades before curving westward into the eastern Gulf near
Naples. Local 88D radar and visible satellite imagery showed
multiple mesoscale lows near and south of the front, while
infrared imagery showed two areas of colder cloud tops, one west
of the Lee Island Coast and the other west of the Lower Keys, that
have been progressing eastward over the past few hours. Out ahead
of these two relatively larger scale areas of lift were a couple
of slow moving cells that have recently developed over northern
Broward and southern Palm Beach counties. The environment near and
south of the front consisted of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest to
southwest) and precipitable water values of approximately 2.3 to
2.5 inches via 12Z sounding and 17Z SPC mesoanalysis data.

Using the 850-300 mb layer as a proxy for storm motions, mean cell
movement will be from the SW to WSW at 10-20 kt. Similarly
oriented 850 mb winds of about the same magnitude will promote
slow moving and training of cells over the southwestern and
southeastern coasts into the Keys. Near the coast of St. Lucie and
Martin counties, low level winds were from the east just north of
a low located just above the surface (925-850 mb) where 850-300 mb
mean winds were weakest across the region at 5-10 kt. Therefore,
the northern Treasure Coast will have the potential for slow
moving to stationary cell movement near the coast given sufficient
instability in place.

Much of southern FL will see an increase in thunderstorm coverage
over the next couple of hours with potential for 2 to 3+ in/hr as
forcing increases from the west, beneath a diffluent flow pattern
in the upper levels. Flash flooding will be possible through 23Z,
but is expected to remain localized and focused across urban
corridors.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6St79PkaIYKxNPJYGEZgQtXgyMVzLF8UKjelGPZQcmv-8MCktKYgp0fK5LPEITxZGZkv= Zjt_qZH2tQSIIIiTj-GFRZ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27298033 27227985 26377972 25308004 24628070=20
24468159 24568189 24818201 25328171 26018214=20
26448225 26728193 26458152 26378109 26398077=20
26608041 27028044=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072316
FFGMPD
FLZ000-080500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1094
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
716 PM EDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Areas affected...southern FL into the Keys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072314Z - 080500Z

Summary...There is potential for a training axis of heavy rain to
begin to impact portions of the southern FL Peninsula into the FL
Keys by 03-06Z. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr will be possible,
which may lead to flash flooding over impervious surfaces.

Discussion...23Z surface observations, radar imagery and fading
visible satellite imagery showed a quasi-stationary front
extending east to west across the southern FL Peninsula with an
apparent low on the front or at least the front aloft, located
north of Grand Bahama Island. A secondary smaller low was noted
just east of the Martin/Palm Beach County border, possibly
connected to the front at the surface or just aloft.

Low level easterly flow just north of the smaller low near the
east coast of FL was helping to support locally heavy rain near
and just east/offshore of Port Saint Lucie where a small bubble of
500 J/kg MLCAPE was estimated via the 22Z SPC mesoanalysis. The
coastal circulation may translate southward in the short term as
the larger low to the north of Grand Bahama is forecast by short
term RAP guidance to strengthen and become better organized
tonight. This strengthening should result in increased northerly
flow over the southern FL Peninsula, pushing the front southward
toward the Middle and Upper Keys by 06Z. Farther southward
progress of the front will likely be limited by southwesterly flow
to the east of yet another surface low analyzed in the eastern
Gulf near 26.4N 84.4W.

The front is expected to act as a focus for the development of
heavy rain where MLCAPE is forecast to be 1000+ J/kg along and
south of the boundary, dropping off to less than 100 J/kg to the
north. Mean steering flow should be roughly parallel to the
boundary allowing for the repeating and training of cells, with
rainfall rates possibly reaching 2 to 3+ in/hr within the tropical
environment. These rates could overlap with localized urban
centers and related impervious surfaces of the Middle/Upper Keys
leading to localized flash flooding.

Regarding the HRRR, while it has been fairly consistent with the
idea of an axis of heavy rain developing in the vicinity of
Florida Bay, the HRRR has struggled with placement of heavy rain
from earlier today and has had differences in its forecast
placement of the surface front and associated low pressure centers
leading to lower confidence in its output. While the idea of
recent HRRR cycles seems reasonable, some of its runs with 6 hr
QPF maxima of 7 to 10 inches appears overdone.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!81lBakZcqkxyAMrt_INC1yfVMaUzPP5fc9MXMIQFQ-iTJJAHBu6jBnIu54Iq8EFzB4-n= yJu8lK0_FM9l0Uikwv_NxUI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27508019 27488009 27367996 27277992 27017985=20
26607975 25927983 25387993 24768044 24468117=20
24508196 25668170 25798099 26208030 26878038=20
27248040 27418036=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080554
FFGMPD
FLZ000-081145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1095
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 AM EDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Areas affected...Florida Keys & Far Southern Florida Peninsula...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080555Z - 081145Z

SUMMARY...Favorable environment for training thunderstorms in
vicinity of Florida Keys. While hard to hit, solid potential for
2-3"/hr rates and spots of 4-6" totals. If intersecting,
accompanying rapid inundation flooding is considered possible
through morning.

DISCUSSION...Surface and remote sensing suite depicts a developing
surface low to the NW of Grand Bahama westerly winds pressing the
front off southern Florida, before the front orients flat east to
west across the Florida Bay before angling northwest along the
coast to a shearing out and retrograding low near 25.6N 83.6W.=20
VWP from BYX and AMX depict this stretching axis across the
southern peninsula with unidirectional deep layer flow supporting
a WSW to ENE training axis across the area of concern.
GOES-E SWIR and RAP winds suggest broader but confluent warm
advective low level flow regime along the spine of the Keys into
Florida Bay with ample deep layer moisture AoA 2.5" with ample low
level profile to support narrow skinny profile with solid unstable
air given values of 2000-2500 J/kg. As such the strong low level
convergence is supporting bands of developing CBs from upstream of
Dry Tortugas through the area before strongest convergence resides
just southwest of the base of the frontal zone where some sfc
southwesterly flow is at or about 15-20kts supports stronger
moisture flux convergence.=20=20

The placement of features: isallobaric response to the growing
complex in the eastern Florida Straits, retrograding low will
support continual convergence upstream redevelopment and training
profile to allow for thunderstorms to track through the Keys into
far southern Florida for the next few hours. Given ample moisture
flux, rates of 2-3"/hr are possible per Hi-Res CAMs. Solid
probability from 00z HREF suggest 3-5" suggest the training cells
have sufficient proximity to land that any intersection may result
in localized totals in short enough duration to allow for rapid inundation/urban style flooding.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9KEv30E6oKWRUEGlbTyMneIR31mCoNLL99BX_pk2BEo6xgwVKx7J-M4I1KiHtNR3L3tZ= HQo-fHdrInhoUVRv8wYDH7o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 25648022 25508014 25288021 25128032 24688089=20
24518151 24528188 24708171 24938110 25078109=20
25318121 25508099 25538062=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090700
FFGMPD
FLZ000-091230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1096
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Areas affected...Southwest Florida....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090700Z - 091230Z

SUMMARY...Potential for coastal training rotating thunderstorms
capable of 2.5"/hr rates and spots of

DISCUSSION...06z surface analysis along with BYX VWP and RADAR
animation shows winds have veered to more southerly, increasing
starting to increase WAA, lifting the stalled boundary across
southeast Gulf/Florida Bay northward. Upper 70s to lower 80s
temp/dewpoints along the Florida Straits and the strengthening
speed convergence with this warm air advection is allowing for
increased instability advection northward expanding 2500+ J/kg
SBCAPE values northward along the coastal boundary.

SPC MCD and bulk shear values suggest main mode of shallow
rotating thunderstorms along this band. While mean steering flow
and approaching isallobaric influence would press cell motions
further west, rotation and right movement is generally
counteracting this influence and supporting a generally north or north-northeast cell motion for these thunderstorms allowing for a
solid potential for training development given upstream moisture
convergence in proximity of the lifting boundary and coastal
frictional convergence may allow for this.

While updrafts are narrow, the rotational flow increases speed and
directional moisture flux into the updrafts allowing for intense
low level moisture loading and therefore intense rainfall
production. Overall moisture of 2.25-2.5", though clearly loaded
in the sfc to 700mb layer will support efficient production with
hourly rates of 2-3"/hr though inner cores will likely drive the
majority of that rain in sub-hourly time frames (15-30 minutes)
further increasing the potential for rapid inundation flooding
across the flat/urban ground conditions. This is further
compounding potential issues given recent moderate to heavy
rainfall. NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture is well above normal at
70-80% capacity and generally above 95th percentile for the time
period.=20

Much of the Hi-Res guidance suite does not place this warm
advective training band ashore, but most have assimilated this
band much further west than current trends would suggestion, with
recent HRRR solutions slowly adjusting to RADAR with the 05z run
getting closest, so far. So, while the band still may align
along/just offshore with the most intense cores/training axis, the
risk for this training band crossing the urban coastal zones has
increased enough to suggest spots of 2-5", resulting in possible
localized inundation flooding through early morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6ZhrXxQKLYOmd2Z2CcDQiyjY58k2Hra9IlNEoDNtq_WFl7MXVFPgqDvBYjqez6LiMERH= qUtWo8XjlKpl9BGDj5QMMIc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27488254 27148203 26648165 26078099 25338037=20
25178105 25848176 26328196 26478225 27108255=20
27348270=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090713
FFGMPD
FLZ000-091230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1096...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Corrected for Summary statement

Areas affected...Southwest Florida....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090700Z - 091230Z

SUMMARY...Potential for coastal training rotating thunderstorms
capable of 2.5"/hr rates and spots of 2-5" possible through
morning.

DISCUSSION...06z surface analysis along with BYX VWP and RADAR
animation shows winds have veered to more southerly and starting
to increase WAA, lifting the stalled boundary across southeast
Gulf/Florida Bay northward. Upper 70s to lower 80s temp/dewpoints
along the Florida Straits and the strengthening speed convergence
with this warm air advection is allowing for increased instability
advection northward expanding 2500+ J/kg SBCAPE values northward
along the coastal boundary.

SPC MCD and bulk shear values suggest main mode of shallow
rotating thunderstorms along this band. While mean steering flow
and approaching isallobaric influence would press cell motions
further west, rotation and right movement is generally
counteracting this influence and supporting a generally north or north-northeast cell motion for these thunderstorms allowing for a
solid potential for training development given upstream moisture
convergence in proximity of the lifting boundary and coastal
frictional convergence may allow for this.

While updrafts are narrow, the rotational flow increases speed and
directional moisture flux into the updrafts allowing for intense
low level moisture loading and therefore intense rainfall
production. Overall moisture of 2.25-2.5", though clearly loaded
in the sfc to 700mb layer will support efficient production with
hourly rates of 2-3"/hr though inner cores will likely drive the
majority of that rain in sub-hourly time frames (15-30 minutes)
further increasing the potential for rapid inundation flooding
across the flat/urban ground conditions. This is further
compounding potential issues given recent moderate to heavy
rainfall. NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture is well above normal at
70-80% capacity and generally above 95th percentile for the time
period.=20

Much of the Hi-Res guidance suite does not place this warm
advective training band ashore, but most have assimilated this
band much further west than current trends would suggestion, with
recent HRRR solutions slowly adjusting to RADAR with the 05z run
getting closest, so far. So, while the band still may align
along/just offshore with the most intense cores/training axis, the
risk for this training band crossing the urban coastal zones has
increased enough to suggest spots of 2-5", resulting in possible
localized inundation flooding through early morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!616dJne68gZ0FK_N9zgLgg56Pwl21KkvT_oB9F_yiRk3kKVe4nDWG2nubPu104knwJLI= a-9Y3lAxgViYxvDHe-_P0fk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27488254 27148203 26648165 26078099 25338037=20
25178105 25848176 26328196 26478225 27108255=20
27348270=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091435
FFGMPD
FLZ000-092000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1097
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1034 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Areas affected...eastern FL Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091433Z - 092000Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms with rainfall
rates between 1-3 in/hr are expected to pose a flash flood threat
to the eastern FL Peninsula from east of Lake Okeechobee to
Jacksonville. Additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches through 20Z
will be possible, but likely remaining localized.

Discussion...14Z regional radar imagery showed a slow moving axis
of heavy rainfall located in northeastern FL between Saint
Augustine and Palm Coast, extending inland about 25 miles. Peak
observed rainfall rates have been between 1-2 in/hr but the
persistent slow moving nature of the rainfall has led to 2 to 4+
inch rainfall totals since midnight, but with much of that falling
over the past 4 hours. Another axis of heavy rain was occurring
near Cape Canaveral with a northward movement observed, but with
redevelopment and repeating from the south. Easterly winds of
20-30 kt at 925 mb were contributing to low level axes of
confluence, helping to focus the ongoing axes of heavy rainfall
with mean steering flow from the south. Aloft, a strong upper
level jet axis was located along the southern Mid-Atlantic coast
with right entrance region ascent contributing to lift across the
FL Peninsula.

SPC mesoanalysis and RAP data showed a relative minimum in
instability between the two ongoing axes of heavy rainfall that is
forecast to persist over the next 3-5 hours, but the environment
remained highly favorable for heavy rain with precipitable water
values of 1.8 to 2.3 inches. Short term forecasts from the RAP
indicate the northern confluence axis slowly edging northward
through 20Z, possibly affecting the Jacksonville metro into the
early afternoon. Farther south, development of
showers/thunderstorms is expected from near northern Palm Beach
County toward the Cape Canaveral region with slow northward
translation but with regeneration and repeating from the south
within the confluent flow. Additional rainfall totals of 2-4
inches are expected through 20Z over portions of the eastern
Peninsula, though cannot rule out localized additional totals over
4 inches. Localized flash flooding will be possible, especially
with overlap of urban corridors.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6m7X87byyiaCT1Dr08_3nVnvIw0masfV791yzaHZzyjV37yAQCDg8hjjNow46ed4PunT= cxMDIdnO2ekeFdMgl4UCWV0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30628125 29988090 28528033 27297993 26858053=20
26948101 27528132 28138176 29118216 29668215=20
30088200 30548181=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091518
FFGMPD
FLZ000-092100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1098
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1117 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Areas affected...western FL Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 091516Z - 092100Z

Summary...A powerful outer rain band is expected to reach the west
coast of FL over the next 1-2 hours. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3+
in/hr will be possible where training occurs and flash flooding
will be likely. Additional banding and heavy rain is likely to
continue into the mid-afternoon, increasing the coverage of flash
flooding.

Discussion...15Z radar imagery from KTBW showed an outer rain band
ahead of Hurricane Milton just offshore from Englewood to Naples.
This powerful outer rain band has been edging closer to the coast
and is expected to reach the coastal population centers from south
to north over the next 1-2 hours. Due to the slow eastward
movement of this band, peak MRMS-derived rainfall rates have been
estimated at 2 to 2.5 in/hr offshore. As Milton continues to track northeastward toward the west coast of FL through 21Z, this outer
band is expected to rotate inland and northward, bringing rainfall
rates of 2-3 in/hr at times along the coast from near Tampa Bay to
Charlotte Harbor.

The outer rain band will likely followed by a temporary lull in
heavy rainfall as it moves through, given a minimum in colder
cloud tops on infrared satellite imagery between the band and the
center of Milton. However, additional heavy rain will develop as
subsequent bands associated with Milton form and move ashore. The
15Z NHC advisory from NHC indicates Milton is moving toward the
northeast at 15 kt, with the center forecast to be located about
30 miles off the coast of Sarasota County at 00Z. Areas along the
coast will be must susceptible to flash flooding over the next few
hours given the urban nature and wet antecedent conditions
including 1-2 inches of rain since midnight. Peak additional
rainfall through 21Z of 3-5 inches will be possible with areas of
flash flooding becoming likely.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!48k5BXyZi85lbruWbGFxuULkO0pPJvFTZJbdF8QQ4jRHoBBDhuEfpYhpIBfV_nRVkGb3= hPOPuqIonChvQNJ0gqq_hn4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 28858251 28568204 27708163 26598143 25908133=20
25688148 25748190 26418248 27238292 27988310=20
28638278=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092022
FFGMPD
FLZ000-092345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1099
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
422 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Areas affected...central FL Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 092018Z - 092345Z

SUMMARY...Numerous areas of flash flooding are expected through
00Z across the central FL Peninsula, including the I-4 corridor
between Tampa and Orlando, and eastward toward Cape Canaveral.
Rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr along with 3-hr rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches are likely.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Milton continued to approach the west coast
of FL at 20Z, located about 100 miles SW of Tampa per the 20Z
update from NHC. Dry air wrapping around from the west into the
southern side of the circulation has contributed to relatively
warmer cloud tops on IR imagery in the southern semicircle.
Reflectivity data from KTBW confirmed this with a lack of higher
dBZ values south of the center. Meanwhile, several bands of heavy
rain have been merging into a broader area of torrential rainfall
between the eye and the southern portion of Tampa Bay. To the
east, an impressive and long-lived outer rain band was located
from eastern Lake Okeechobee into the I-4 corridor, near a remnant
frontal boundary which extended west-east across the central
Peninsula between roughly a SRQ to MLB line with the elevated
portion of this convergence axis just north. The low level
convergence axis delineated MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg to its
south from values less than 500 J/kg to its north. Aloft, water
vapor imagery inferred strongly diffluent/divergent flow aloft
over the Peninsula between a strong jet max over the Mid-Atlantic
coast and Milton.

As Milton continues to approach the coast, while gradual weakening
is still anticipated, an axis of very heavy rain is likely to set
up just north of the center from the Tampa Bay vicinity, eastward
toward Orlando and Cape Canaveral, following the low level
convergence axis. This is confirmed via experimental WoFS output
showing 50-80 percent probabilities of exceeding 5 inches from the
19Z cycle over Pinellas County, and 40-60 percent probabilities
farther east into Polk County through 00Z. Rainfall rates within
this axis are expected to peak in the 2 to 3 in/hr range within
areas of training but with localized hourly totals in excess of 3
inches possible along with 3-hour totals in the 3-6 inch range.
Given the expected location of this heavy rainfall axis
overlapping high density population centers including Tampa and
Orlando, significant areas of flash flooding with life-threatening
impacts will be possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4JcPGw1PvptyXwlwNwMt1eeRCRkIFW603v86RFK7yeO8PCrijh3wFDOHLUZi4KeebhC2= 2aRYj7cBZRreAYV9drQH6TQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 29198115 29148080 28008013 27118000 26968067=20
27228147 26898244 27358297 27828305 28478277=20
28758243 28978184=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092331
FFGMPD
FLZ000-100445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1100
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Areas affected...north-central FL Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 092328Z - 100445Z

SUMMARY...An axis of extreme rainfall, stretching from the Tampa
metropolitan region northeastward into the north-central FL
Peninsula, is expected to result in major to locally catastrophic
flash flooding with considerable threats to life and property.
6-hr rainfall totals of at least 5-8 inches with hourly rainfall
in the 2-3 in/hr range are expected.

DISCUSSION...The 23Z update from NHC placed the center of
Hurricane Milton 35 miles WSW of Sarasota, FL. Local radar imagery
at 23Z from KTBW showed the heaviest rain located within what is
effectively the northern eyewall which has pushed ashore and arced
from Manatee into southern Hillsborough and much of Pinellas
counties with MRMS and gauge data showing 1-2 in/hr rainfall
rates. Portions of St. Petersburg to Bradenton have already picked
up 5-8 inches of rain since midnight and flash flooding is
ongoing. Farther east, an outer rain band had largely moved
offshore of the eastern Peninsula but was arcing northwestward
ashore just north of Cape Canaveral with 4-8 inches already
reported across Brevard County.

An axis of strong low level convergence tied to the northern
eyewall, extending northeast from the center of Milton to Volusia
County (just north of the forecast track of Milton) will support a
prolonged period of high rainfall rates, 1-2 in/hr but locally in
the 2 to 3+ in/hr range, with the axis training from WSW to ENE
and slowly lifting north with time. Some locations could
experience rainfall rates in excess of 1 in/hr for 2-4 hours,
causing rapid rises of water above the surface as water will not
have sufficient time to drain, especially across the mostly
impervious surfaces of the St. Petersburg into the Tampa metro and
possibly nearing Orlando later tonight. Additional rainfall of at
least 5-8 inches is expected from St. Petersburg, northeastward
into the central Peninsula where the WoFS has consistently painted
high probabilities of exceeding 5 inches of rainfall. The 22Z WoFS
cycle indicated 50 to 90 percent probabilities of 5+ inches and
90th percentile (reasonable worse case scenario) values of 7-10
inches. Major to locally catastrophic flash flooding is expected
as a result of these high rainfall rates.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6gKF48B965Xqj-Jzk3hFPNzyaeldajk6aK1Bj6zQ7DDIysUYY_DgBDtRhDbDLz8puFHb= LiIRC4UVxA39mwYPAM3Wb8k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 29888111 29688103 28598054 28528063 28238143=20
27798205 27438295 27898313 28898262 29318212=20
29678163=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100434
FFGMPD
FLZ000-101045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1101
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1231 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Areas affected...portions of North-Central FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100445Z - 101045Z

Summary...Locally catastrophic flash flooding likely to continue
as Hurricane Milton moves across the Florida Peninsula with
2-3"/hr rainfall rates and 3-8" additional totals.

Discussion...Hurricane Milton is progressing across the central FL
Peninsula at this hour, undergoing extratropical transition in the
process with heavy rainfall confined to the northern half of the
circulation. Convection associated with Milton remains intense,
largely due to this extratropical transition process (and the
associated strong upper-level divergence from the right entrance
region of a 140+ kt jet streak off the Northeast coast). GOES-East
infrared imagery indicates cloud top temperatures of -85deg C or
colder, along with multiple lightning strikes via the GLM
instrument. This corresponds to estimated cloud top heights of
40-50k feet (via KTBW/MRMS echo top data), and this continues to
support significant tropical rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr (with
precipitable water values at record breaking levels of 2.4-2.7
inches).

Hi-res models are in good agreement in keeping the remnant of the
northern eyewall of Milton convectively active until its emergence
over the Atlantic in the next 4-6 hours. This will bring the 50
mile wide swath of 2-3"/hr rainfall rates from the
Lakeland/Orlando metro areas northeastward into more rural
portions of the peninsula between Orlando and Jacksonville, as
well as into coastal cities such as Daytona Beach, Palm Coast, and
St. Augustine. This will result in an additional 1-3" of rainfall
in the vicinity of Lakeland/Orlando (where 6-12" of rainfall has
already fallen over the past 12 hours), and an additional 3-8"
over adjacent portions of the northeastern peninsula and coastal
cities (where 2-4" has already fallen over the past 12 hours).
Flash flooding (some locally catastrophic) will continue in the
hard-hit areas of Lakeland/Orlando, while flash flooding is likely
to continue and expand to those areas towards the northeast (which
may also experience locally significant to catastrophic flash
flooding).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!62KuibCvgzzgD5po1BTLbB2g4j0IWIy2wowkA6k0YwjMv_2VqqCqDR6bYKIVNnn4tUjs= D56zLGZoxgxjmcl9lQ6EQ54$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30088126 29498102 28748065 28448090 28128151=20
27938209 28378240 29238219 29618188 29978159=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121917
FFGMPD
FLZ000-130115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1102
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Areas affected...South FL and the Keys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121915Z - 130115Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving bands of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms are expected to overspread portions of especially
southeast FL and the middle and upper FL Keys going through the
remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. Some urban flash
flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction
with dual-pol radar is showing a gradual increase in very heavy
shower and thunderstorm activity across the FL Straits which has
been gradually lifting north-northeastward over the last few
hours. A subtle/weak mid-level shortwave impulse is seen
approaching the region and this energy coupled with the
interaction with an inverted surface trough near the southeast
coast of the FL Peninsula has been facilitating the development of
some semi-organized bands of deeper convection.

There has been an uptick in instability across far southern FL and
in the upper portions of the Keys where MLCAPE values have risen
to 500 to 1000 J/kg. An increase in low-level moisture convergence
has been noted as well close to the coast, and this coupled with
the aforementioned shortwave energy/deeper layer ascent and
proximity of 30 to 40 kts of effective bulk shear should tend to
maintain a threat for relatively organized bands or clusters of
heavy showers and thunderstorms going at least into the evening
hours.

PWs are close to 2 inches and have been tending to rise throughout
the day, and this coupled with the shear and instability should
help drive some very efficient convection with high rainfall rates
that may reach 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour.

The heavier rainfall threat should tend to overall stay over the
Keys and coastal areas of southeast FL where the better
instability is, but some of these bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms may impact some of the urbanized I-95 corridor of
southeast FL including Fort Lauderdale and Miami, and also Rt. 1
down through Homestead.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches cannot be ruled out in the
middle and upper FL Keys, with the urbanized areas of southeast FL
farther north seeing 2 to 4 inches. If any training of these
slow-moving bands of convection can occur, it will be possible for
locally heavier totals. These rains are expected to drive a threat
for some urban flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9InmYdy9fRYuxNC7ADUSjuvKbnwR1mBXXhHE2fiEXaZZ2xJGK32QCcNavtNyjsHXWvBY= HDzq_Jqxmv9vUHbl2Fzkij4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 26667994 26028000 25388020 24728061 24668118=20
24898128 25228098 25838059 26608025=20

=3D =3D =3D
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