1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2038

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 30 22:51:58 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 302251
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302251=20
    MIZ000-310045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2038
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0551 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

    Areas affected...Southeast lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665...

    Valid 302251Z - 310045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail should persist for the
    next 2 to 2.5 hours across southeastern Lower Michigan. The greatest
    severe wind risk may reside along and north of I-65 during this
    period.

    DISCUSSION...Convection continues to develop along a cold front
    across lower MI. Overall intensification has been somewhat gradual,
    likely owing to somewhat meager large-scale ascent over the region.
    However, KDTX VWP observations have shown a slight strengthening of
    mid-level flow over the past 30-60 minutes with 0-6 km bulk shear
    values increasing closer to 30 knots at times. Additionally, GOES
    1-minute imagery shows several strong updraft pulses along the line,
    indicating that the potential for organized convection persists.
    Confidence in the coverage of robust convection remains limited
    given the aforementioned weak forcing for ascent and recent
    convective trends, but a few severe storms with an attendant
    hail/severe wind risk remain possible as the cold front continues to
    push east (especially along and north of I-65 where convection is
    comparatively more intense based on IR and lightning trends). Latest
    timing guidance suggests that this activity should exit southeastern
    lower MI within the next 2-3 hours.

    ..Moore.. 08/30/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-_u3HzCNCfabmr_T4qsEtucXmmkkvuHfnNz4UNaYu_rX7DjTGgUBnW4cWuvROLINu-5TS43Cj= C4MvlkNZBn-71i0vn8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 41898480 42888362 43798304 44058279 44018259 43488235
    42998239 42628252 42338274 42068302 41888326 41788357
    41738396 41798454 41808474 41898480=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)