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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2033

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 29 21:41:19 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 292141
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292140=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-292315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2033
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0440 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

    Areas affected...portions of the Mid Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 662...663...

    Valid 292140Z - 292315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 662, 663
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW663. Clusters of
    strong to severe storms should continue into this evening. Damaging
    wind gusts and occasional hail are possible.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2130 UTC, several clusters of strong to severe
    storms were ongoing across WW633. Over the past several hours, these
    clusters have produced occasional damaging wind gusts and isolated
    severe hail. The environment across the watch area and much of the
    Mid Atlantic remains unstable and modestly sheared with 2000 J/kg of
    MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis and 20-25 kt of effective shear via
    area VADs. Convective coverage may increase slightly over the next
    coupe of hours as various outflows interact with ongoing and
    developing clusters. Damaging winds remain the most likely threat,
    though isolated hail is possible with the stronger updrafts given
    the degree of buoyancy.

    Hi-res guidance and the latest observational trends suggest the
    highest storm coverage may remain over parts of the MD/VA/PA border
    region this evening. This may support a locally greater corridor of
    severe risk as some of the ongoing clusters may consolidate further.
    However, this is uncertain, given the lack of more meaningful
    broad-scale forcing, and the severe risk remains across much of the
    watch.

    ..Lyons.. 08/29/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9-90VptXaEbIQfEkUko9X341OLZj3e9jlJfm5IQtXtlJJK5CJRGAGpg-ZXlrJaRPPlVtZujL_= PhXsiEHEGcpLFNZ8aE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 38368005 40407883 40917810 41047685 40947631 40727597
    40447586 40237589 39777606 38597654 38147688 37787786
    37627831 37527937 37588006 38368005=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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