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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1921

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 16 19:08:02 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 161907
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161907=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-162100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1921
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0207 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

    Areas affected...south-central Kansas into northeast Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 161907Z - 162100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A conditional threat of wind and hail will be possible
    downstream of WW627 as long-lived supercell and potential for
    additional convection develops continues east and southeast.

    DISCUSSION...An elevated long-lived supercell continues to track
    east along trailing outflow in south-central Kansas south of
    Wichita. Visible satellite has shown attempts at new cell
    development on the southern flank of outflow as it sags southward
    towards northern Oklahoma. Modified soundings would suggest that the
    downstream environment may only be weakly capped, as temperatures
    have warmed into the low to mid 90s across much of eastern Kansas
    and northern Oklahoma. A conditional threat of large hail and
    damaging wind may extend downstream with further warming and
    weakening of capping occurs and supercells can become surface based,
    given MLCAPE around 1000-3000 J/kg and deep layer shear 35-40 kts.
    This area is being monitored for a downstream watch should
    intensification occur. A local extension of WW627 may be needed in south-central Kansas.

    ..Thornton/Thompson.. 08/16/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4cRzcc8YG5x1AtISjPKbsUZtyEEUwUnXdoi7JGwURUIWdX-5UsXwN82ycNVnkQcYCaKBfe0ml= x6z2uBf58zsjlf-qpA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36809765 36419729 36219684 36099647 36049597 36069558
    36309499 36599467 36949495 37299541 37819620 37889696
    37789767 37219781 36809765=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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