ACUS11 KWNS 161540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161540 COR
KSZ000-161730-
Mesoscale Discussion 1919
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024
Areas affected...parts of central/southern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 161540Z - 161730Z
CORRECTED FOR TYPO
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...It remains unclear how much longer ongoing scattered
severe hail producing storms will persist. But trends are being
monitored, and it is possible that a severe weather watch may become
necessary.
DISCUSSION...Elevated moisture return within forcing for ascent
associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection has been
sufficient to overcome mid-level inhibition and support the
initiation of scattered vigorous thunderstorm development. CAPE for
lifted parcels, in the presence of steep lapse rates, may be in
excess of 2000 J/kg. More certain, shear beneath 30-40+
west-northwesterly mid/upper flow is strong and more than sufficient
for supercells capable of producing severe hail.
Based on model output, it remains unclear how much longer this will
continue. However, through early afternoon, the forcing for ascent
is forecast to generally continue spreading east-southeastward
through south central Kansas near/north of Medicine Lodge and
Wichita, where a warmer and more moist boundary-layer may
destabilize sufficiently to support notable further intensification.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/16/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ti8KoV-6w-C1MyvyTpa0j4aC4kze09KVCg_PGnGWzj8_8C8v9bkpgn3kX8O60ZUNGXIXob9w= tu9a2IgOW1kpLCDBv0$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 38609999 38679887 38549776 37929693 37279783 37739997
38609999=20
=3D =3D =3D
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