ACUS11 KWNS 152102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152101=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-152330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1910
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southern Missouri into southern
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 152101Z - 152330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and large hail will gradually increase over the next few hours. A
watch may eventually be needed, though timing is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Latest mesoanalysis and VWP data indicate weak
low-level warm advection atop an antecedent outflow boundary across
portions of southern MO into southern IL -- where cumulus clouds are
gradually evolving/deepening. Continued diurnal heating and warm
advection should eventually support thunderstorm development across
the area, though the weak forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on
timing of initiation. That said, one thunderstorm has developed on
the southern MO/IL border, and this storm could pose a risk of
locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail in the near term.

Additional thunderstorms will be developing in an environment
characterized by around 30 kt of effective shear (with favorable
low-level hodograph curvature) and steep midlevel lapse rates atop a
warm/moist boundary layer (middle 70s dewpoints and upper 80s/lower
90s temperatures). As a result, a mix of organized clusters and
supercells are possible, posing a risk of damaging winds and large
hail. Westerly flow parallel to the antecedent outflow may promote
gradual congealing of cold pools and an increasing risk of severe
gusts. While a watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area,
timing is currently uncertain.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ld5Kj9-DKdD4fzkXWyXPS8QR4ysY6pXPLcZR0wSaxCOqZHAgvYCz9rerr3VD72lxD1ZIZh0W= k8slR5FYsrGr-9LPU4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 38069209 38329076 38369021 38228963 37908939 37298940
36908957 36678993 36589121 36599282 36629352 36819386
37139391 37559391 37859358 38069209=20


=3D =3D =3D
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