ACUS11 KWNS 142058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142057=20
KSZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-142330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1902
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeast KS...southeast NE...far
northwest MO...and far southwest IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 142057Z - 142330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe
potential this afternoon into the evening. Timing of thunderstorm
development is uncertain, though an eventual watch issuance appears
likely for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a warm front/modifying
outflow boundary extending east-southeastward across northeast KS --
from a weak frontal-wave low over north-central KS. North of the
boundary, billow clouds continue to erode from south to north as the
antecedent outflow continues to destabilize amid strong diurnal
heating. Here, steep mid-level lapse rates atop rich/sheltered
boundary-layer moisture (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) will result
in strong surface-based instability. However, additional heating
will be needed (especially with northward extent) to erode lingering
inhibition (see OAX 19Z special sounding).=20

Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the frontal-wave low,
near the warm front, and possibly to the north along a differential
heating boundary, possibly aided by an approaching midlevel trough.
Storms will spread eastward into the increasingly favorable
environment -- characterized by 30-40 kt of effective shear, strong instability, and clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (200-300
m2/s2 effective SRH). This will favor organized storms, including
the potential for supercells and organized clusters, capable of
damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes.

Timing of thunderstorm development and intensification is still
uncertain, though an eventual watch issuance is likely for parts of
the area.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-_JEOIau9uqx0dAfAV3IkpWJ08DK_ea20QC5obJOFSFbfkyFedR09piAJy2yEGxApvbba5jos= PItBKITxY7wyT-SWjI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 38899778 39289797 39729796 40439769 41109738 41429716
41479676 41429591 41109560 40169532 39629532 39279555
38769605 38569643 38499682 38659739 38899778=20


=3D =3D =3D
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