ACUS11 KWNS 140301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140300=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-140500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Areas affected...South-central Nebraska and North-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 140300Z - 140500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed as a linear
MCS continues to process eastward across southern Nebraska and
northern Kansas.

DISCUSSION...A linear MCS with a history of 60-70 MPH observed winds
is continuing to progress across portions of northern Kansas and
southern Nebraska, with a pronounced bow echo evident on radar in
southern Nebraska. This bow echo will serve as the primary focus for
the greatest short-term severe risk over the next few hours. Some
uncertainty remains in the eastward longevity of this convective
line, but SPC mesoanalysis suggests that continued warm air
advection in the low levels has limited nocturnal boundary layer
stabilization and subsequent development of MLCINH. The expectation
is that the line will eventually weaken with eastward extent, but a
new severe thunderstorm watch may be necessary if the line maintains
its current strength.

..Halbert/Wendt/Edwards.. 08/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9TD5O-rZHQa4xX1O3Ve6XZpJzuW0Yes1Bv0sTDuVnViOgUtLgVtMi81bE96EEQQc46LodkdID= f1-n5Y9MOMA_1syGiw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38730069 38710122 39090149 39770154 40740111 41250077
41480026 41539928 41519865 40959811 40389800 39739797
39519820 39369870 39329885 39139940 38910010 38730069=20


=3D =3D =3D
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