ACUS11 KWNS 122213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122213=20
MTZ000-130015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1888
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Areas affected...North-central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122213Z - 130015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A potential will exist for marginally severe gusts and
hail early this evening across parts of north-central Montana. No
watch issuance is anticipated.

DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave
trough over the northern Rockies, embedded in southwest mid-level
flow. At the surface, a mesolow is analyzed over north-central
Montana, with upslope east-southeasterly flow located across much of
northern and eastern Montana. Isolated thunderstorms have developed
near and to the north of the low along a narrow corridor of
instability, where the RAP is estimating SBCAPE in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range. Short-term forecast soundings in north-central Montana
early this evening have a relatively dry boundary layer, but show
steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear. This may be enough
for a marginal severe threat for a few hours. Strong gusts and hail
will be possible.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 08/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4uHNe2o1audHn8tCObmysvcGnp13y-p5Ps5_nl9EL9I699tls7Zmw5EaKO_8VF4RDRfIzMU55= UF5nrR0MlXoRJpqMBc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 47221015 47150938 47340862 47740811 48320827 48880909
48961048 48861165 48541205 48011188 47221015=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)