ACUS11 KWNS 070655
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070655=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-071000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1855
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Areas affected...Southeast NC into extreme northeast SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 070655Z - 071000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two will be possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...A band of convection along the east/northeast periphery
of Tropical Storm Debby's circulation has become somewhat more
well-defined early this morning. A theta-e/instability gradient
persists near the coast, with a narrow inland zone of MLCAPE near
1000 J/kg noted (per recent objective mesoanalyses and a modified
06Z sounding from KMHX) where temperatures remain near 80 F.=20

The 06Z MHX sounding and recent VWPs from KMHX/KLTX depict 0-1 km
SRH of around 150-200 m2/s2 for observed cell motions, which is
sufficient to support at least transient low-level rotation with the
strongest cells. While ongoing convection has generally struggled to
become organized, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out
overnight as stronger embedded cells within the primary convective
band move inland and cross the near-coastal baroclinic zone.

..Dean/Edwards.. 08/07/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5dzZgIuC7ixzWlbCwlkhgcFo1EEFLzwchUiCvOeO2Zw0C_xldd3utN-ntidwF4lbqunl2jCQg= NSkqWyALL9INm9L9r8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON 34147884 34387852 35037745 35037690 34857667 34427693
33847770 33627823 33527882 33797896 34147884=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)