ACUS11 KWNS 041734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041734=20
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-042000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1814
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Areas affected...far northern New York eastward into Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 041734Z - 042000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some storms may produce localized hail, primarily at or
below severe levels, over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...On the periphery of an upper trough over Quebec,
relatively cool midlevel temperatures extend southward into parts of
New England. Daytime heating near a surface trough and also north of
a more extensive cirrus shield is resulting in moderate
destabilization from northern NY eastward into parts of ME.

Wind profiles do not favor particularly organized storms, as winds
below 500 mb are weak. However, stronger speeds exist in the upper
levels which may aid venting somewhat.

Overall, it appears that short-lived, strong storm cores capable of
marginally severe hail will be the primary risk with these cells
over the next few hours as they travel east/southeast across the
narrow instability zone.

..Jewell.. 08/04/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Wv5ZLDJtsKZFq4rccFkdw-z1diaWoqmHnbbbDfS8-D478DE-SqnPbQfBu9QAmqJTf2Zegih3= BMOZ51Qlr7u2Slr5pY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 46146811 45056885 44496990 43337395 43437523 43887520
44297473 44957381 45057191 45567106 46167035 46696902
46486817 46146811=20


=3D =3D =3D
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