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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1764

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 31 16:02:08 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 311602
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311601=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-311730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1764
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1101 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

    Areas affected...extreme southeast IA...northeast MO...and
    west-central IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 311601Z - 311730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic hail to around 1 inch diameter and locally strong
    gusts around 40-50 mph are possible the next couple of hours. A
    watch is not expected at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated convection in a modest low-level warm
    advection regime will likely continue the next couple of hours
    across the discussion area. The airmass directly downstream from
    thunderstorm clusters across southeast Iowa has been impacted by overnight/morning convection. Temperatures behind the outflow from
    earlier convection are currently in the upper 60s to low 70s. While
    modest instability remains given surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
    to low 70s F, low-level inhibition will likely remain as the airmass
    only slowly recovers through early afternoon. Current expectation is
    that modest instability but favorable vertical shear will continue
    to support isolated strong (but likely elevated) convection. This
    activity will mainly pose a risk for hail up to 1 inch diameter and
    locally strong gusts around 40-50 mph. A severe thunderstorm watch
    is not currently expected.

    ..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/31/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6DFCM_raGxh2h7WsSb7ld16ZhIza6GJDIC8wFe1He3yFsUCL-b18UBsluWWcHdFQE6ms6Ta9S= PPveWuuuCjjsdN5S9w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 40929190 40429092 39779021 39379028 39149058 39309129
    39749224 40139286 40519322 40779316 40959309 41029278
    40929190=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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