ACUS11 KWNS 301043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301043=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1740
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Areas affected...a part of the Mid-MS Valley to central IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566...

Valid 301043Z - 301215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566
continues.

SUMMARY...A long-lived short-line segment may continue to produce
strong to localized severe gusts as it moves east-southeast from the Mid-Mississippi Valley towards central Illinois. A downstream severe thunderstorm watch issuance is possible pending observational
trends.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived short QLCS has steadily progressed
east-southeast into a portion of the Mid-MS Valley near the IA/IL/MO
border area. Its forward motion of about 45 kts has been fairly
consistent, with a bit of recent expansion in length but gradual
overall warming of IR cloud tops. Intensity in terms of measured
surface gusts has waned following a relative peak of 64 kts at OTM.
As such, confidence is low in whether additional strengthening can
occur given the time of day. But with the presence of 35-kt
low-level southwesterlies into at least western MO per EAX VWP data,
and the persistent MLCAPE gradient ahead of the line, some threat
for strong to localized severe gusts may persist towards central IL.

..Grams/Guyer.. 07/30/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!84EEktLdgGfBH3I5yEHs6lq-nniilnaSXfzEufgyyWBJEctM_qSX9I4kxy-hvRYY2iQZPkGOM= epiomf18BiK5GXRHc0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41269138 41089026 40928943 40808888 40618871 40228861
39868873 39668909 39558971 39579018 39639065 39829122
40139159 40379167 41269138=20


=3D =3D =3D
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