ACUS11 KWNS 290149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290149=20
KSZ000-290345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1722
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0849 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Areas affected...parts of northwestern into central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 290149Z - 290345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated long-lived supercell has been producing large
hail and locally severe wind gusts along its path now approaching
the Hayes KS vicinity. This may persist into the 9-10 PM CDT time
frame, before a rapid weakening commences.

DISCUSSION...Within a favorable lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection regime, near the northeastern periphery of mid/upper
ridging shifting east of the Rockies, an isolated supercell has been
maintained for a couple of hours now. Despite the presence of
lingering inhibition beneath warm/warming mid-levels, strong shear
beneath a broadly anticyclonic upper jet (including 50-70 kt around
300 mb) nosing across the Colorado Rockies through northwestern
Kansas probably has contributed to the sustenance of this cell,
coupled with persistent moderate south/southeasterly inflow of
unstable air.=20=20

Inflow appears to have been characterized by CAPE on the order of
1500 J/kg, as the storm has taken on an increasing rightward
propagation toward the Hayes KS vicinity. However, based on
observational data and objective analysis, it appears that it may
begin to acquire at least somewhat drier and less unstable inflow
within the next hour or two. Coupled with increasing inhibition
associated with the loss of daytime heating, the cell seems likely
to weaken, and weakening/dissipation may be fairly rapid once this
begins.

..Kerr/Hart.. 07/29/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6T_01c17-uXpFFQQ9RRrL4HdXz7RrsJIA4EFsT54T6EBaC58IYpxmudyH29rfmrWDa8wy6tUh= AJP5oyhkgUI1125Tjk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39300008 38929892 38689886 38619947 38890026 39300008=20


=3D =3D =3D
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