ACUS01 KWNS 012204
SWODY1
SPC AC 012203
Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA....
AMENDED FOR INCREASED TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL TX.
...SUMMARY...
Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely
to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of
the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through
tonight.
Localized tornado risk has recently materialized across parts of
central TX in proximity to a differential heating zone and a weakly
confluent dryline. Several supercells ongoing within extreme
buoyancy (4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) may pose a risk for an additional
tornado in proximity to the boundary given slightly enhanced
low-level shear, very moist conditions and very strong vertical
stretching.
...20z...
The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of
the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe
hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of
the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening.
Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and
Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker
vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm
remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should
curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today.
Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to
occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area
this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk
for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust
potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and
the SLGT has been removed.
Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of
the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells,
are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds
and very large hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern
CO should continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over
parts of the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are
possible. By late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly
low-level jet will support the development of additional storms
ahead of this complex. Merging cells and bowing structures will pose
a risk of damaging gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight
across parts of central OK and the Red River valley.
..Lyons.. 05/01/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/
...OH Valley...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave
trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough
will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and
central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the
afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and
moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with
sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of
storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to
spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening.
...Central TX...
A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into
central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture
along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000
J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least
isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms
that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds.
Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern
Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening.
...TX Panhandle into OK...
A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the
Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms
over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track
southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over
the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are
expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large
hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected
to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a
risk of large hail.
$$
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