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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1691

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 21 20:10:34 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 212010
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212010=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1691
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0310 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

    Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...northeastern New
    Mexico...and the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 212010Z - 212245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
    across the area this afternoon and evening posing an initial threat
    for hail and eventually evolving into a wind threat. The severe
    threat appears too marginal and isolated to warrant a severe
    thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have already initiated across
    the area ahead of a southward-moving midlevel shortwave trough.=20
    While instability (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) and shear (effective
    bulk shear around 25 knots) are modest, initial multicell modes may
    support hail (0.75-1.25 in) and convective gusts (45-60 mph).=20
    Eventually cold pool mergers are expected to lead to some degree of
    upscale growth, especially across northeastern New Mexico, where
    isolated severe gusts (55-65 mph) may be possible if an organized
    convective cluster develops. A severe thunderstorm watch is
    unlikely given the isolated and marginal nature of the severe
    threat.

    ..Jirak/Smith.. 07/21/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_EaxjoVkk0ggMKpsPC5sD8KSKn7dVkZcgtXC3GYF_Ql8J7YHBsks6fCAJ0AY2WbcjJ0W0PmGa= d6i1jXi0RkH9jbOWZw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35200520 36190528 37570525 37660523 38350518 38890510
    39210483 39250412 38900338 38600278 38130232 37010198
    36280186 35480188 35100202 34910237 34730315 34620362
    34740493 35200520=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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