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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1686

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 20 18:05:52 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 201805
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201805=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-202000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1686
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0105 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

    Areas affected...Southeastern Georgia into southern South Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 201805Z - 202000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will intensify along a differential heating
    boundary and along the sea breeze. Isolated damaging winds are the
    primary hazard. Should clustering occur a locally greater wind
    damage threat would be possible. A small severe thunderstorm watch
    would be considered if that occurs.

    DISCUSSION...Though cloud cover has generally eroded across northern Georgia/Upstate South Carolina, temperatures have remained cooler in
    those locations thus far. This has set up a differential heating
    boundary from central Georgia into southern South Carolina. Cumulus
    development is ongoing along this boundary as well as the sea
    breeze. Thunderstorms have already initiated in central/east-central
    Georgia and have been deepening over the last hour per MRMS CAPPI
    data. The observed morning sounding from Charleston showed modestly
    steeper mid-level lapse rates than other regional soundings (6-6.5
    C/km). Portions of southeast Georgia into southern South Carolina
    should have some of the better overlap of buoyancy and effective
    shear given the enhanced mid-level winds over the region. As storms
    continue to deepen/intensify with continued heating, the expectation
    is for marginally organized multicells to be capable of sporadic
    wind damage. Should clustering occur, a locally greater wind damage
    threat would be possible.

    ..Wendt/Smith.. 07/20/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_hwvBqRhJ4S-_YeWiNq4Isp1ioFHcdzQshJl-B1bcfTmA1YvY5aub0FnBZNHZUV7Im7XF4BHn= DqNPQ4ST4UCze1Zxt8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 32128363 32698339 33508112 33058019 32418060 31778120
    31248161 30638209 30588247 31688358 32128363=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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