ACUS11 KWNS 192141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192141=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-192245-
Mesoscale Discussion 1683
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024
Areas affected...Central/Southern High Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 192141Z - 192245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...New Severe Thunderstorm Watch appears warranted for
portions of the central/southern High Plains.
DISCUSSION...Weak short-wave trough is evident within water-vapor
imagery digging south-southeast across the central Plains. Scattered
convection now reflects the leading edge of this feature, with
thunderstorms gradually increasing across the central portions of
ww555 from northwestern KS into eastern CO. This activity should
propagate south along the primary corridor of instability (MLCAPE on
the order of 2000 J/kg) toward the OK Panhandle later this evening.
While LLJ is not forecast to be that strong, 25kt southerly jet
should aid in the longevity of this activity as it spreads south
across the High Plains. Damaging winds are the main risk, though
some hail is possible.
..Darrow/Gleason.. 07/19/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7BAdEcwMaOhMZaiYHiQV3VdXU8LGmu5VVNu6lRcye-XnbgRJWl9fMcq2qS3VHMxxAkFBntA2C= WC7u9P-xLliWztCYBs$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 38220286 38379925 37419877 36340001 36460223 38220286=20
=3D =3D =3D
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