ACUS11 KWNS 191830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191830=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-192030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1682
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Areas affected...portions of far eastern Colorado into extreme
southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 191830Z - 192030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase through the
afternoon. 60-75 mph gusts are the main concern, though a couple
instances of 1+ inch hail cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance will
eventually be needed pending favorable convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been percolating in intensity across
eastern CO into NE, where strong surface heating has supported
temperatures rising into the upper 80s/low 90s F amid low 60s F
dewpoints. MLCINH continues to erode as the boundary layer deepens,
supporting the potential for robust thunderstorm development.
Regional VADs and 18Z mesoanalysis show hodographs with slight
low-level curvature and mid-level elongation, favoring the
development of transient supercells merging into line segments
through the afternoon. Low-level lapse rates have steepened to 8+
C/km, and they may steepen further through the afternoon, supporting
severe gust potential (some of which may approach 75 mph).

Some questions remain in terms of exactly when an uptick in greater
storm coverage will occur. Nonetheless, a WW issuance will
eventually be needed once these details become more clear.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/19/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7x3oQnwvjEKIPUtCBRMgOQpwXSlVkOjNHQ2kEgdjnFGocnTzglWiivfhv1louU__5yOiwFuyB= doPy9gL0eTiGUri5_0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39980267 40330205 40410120 40139996 39769938 39259910
38689925 38409966 38330040 38480121 38880206 39170234
39980267=20


=3D =3D =3D
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