ACUS11 KWNS 181530
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181530=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-181730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1676
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Areas affected...North Carolina into southern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 181530Z - 181730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging straight-line
winds are possible this afternoon across much of North Carolina, as
well as portions of southern Virginia. A severe thunderstorm watch
may be needed later.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and an ongoing MCS over southwestern
Virginia will serve as the foci for convective development this
afternoon. Morning observed soundings from MHX and GSO show moist,
tropical profiles that will require very little daytime
heating/mixing to convect. Short term model guidance and radar
trends show intensification of the ongoing MCS in Virginia, which is
expected to continue to move eastward across Virginia and
potentially portions of northeastern North Carolina. Other storms
will develop further south across North Carolina as the surface
reaches convective temperatures.=20

There is little in the way of upper-level support for organized
convection, with observed soundings showing only 20 kts of
deep-layer shear, and forecast profiles across North Carolina only
ever approaching 30 kts. The expectation is for these storms to
evolve into multi-cell clusters and loosely organized bowing
segments, capable of damaging wind gusts. Additionally, the relative
lack of shear combined with precipitable water vapor values at or
exceeding the 90th percentile for the region, will result in an
environment that supports water loaded updrafts collapsing into
downbursts capable of severe winds.

..Halbert/Squitieri/Hart.. 07/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Bwnu8Q6gYVyPHFY2ehoAW4N7u46ZPJPuaUnmjiJSyb7uqkPo7MQl5xZQhGO9V-snd1qN6-Sr= dvnQY6qOqT75PhBsmQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 35338177 35628205 36098184 36638135 36798122 36948025
37117888 37347761 37167649 36887603 36607559 36177544
35867532 35407534 35027551 34667601 34317665 33957802
34237871 34737940 34927987 35018028 35208109 35338177=20


=3D =3D =3D
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