ACUS11 KWNS 152355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152354=20
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-160130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1640
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 540...

Valid 152354Z - 160130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 540
continues.

SUMMARY...The environment remains conducive for severe thunderstorms
across central New York and northeast Pennsylvania to persist for
another couple of hours. Wind will be the most common threat.

DISCUSSION...Two quasi-linear bowing segments are ongoing across the
severe thunderstorm watch: one in northeast Pennsylvania and another
in central New York. Both of these bowing segments are moving
east-northeast within an unstable airmass (CAPE around 1000 J/kg)
and have a history of producing wind damage. Despite deep-layer
shear decreasing with eastward extent, the organized nature of the
convection will allow a wind damage threat to persist for another
couple of hours.

..Marsh.. 07/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9-0QpOdjU11k13FiOkLA3Z2vRdOdZ0E5VCT2MoRF7wEF1_ZMZxYcMWXOf7egexp9vqYaK8Lmt= 0x3pidoNc2mSM7Zb1k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON 42677597 43477608 44007538 43917433 43177334 41837324
41327384 41087512 41137614 41557637 42137641 42677597=20


=3D =3D =3D
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