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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1639

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 15 23:06:40 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 152306
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152306=20
    MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-160100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1639
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0606 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

    Areas affected...Far southeast Wisconsin into central and northeast
    Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 152306Z - 160100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...An organizing MCS across eastern Iowa is expected to move
    into central and northeastern IL, and perhaps far southeast WI,
    later this evening. Recent convective trends and high-res ensemble
    guidance suggest one or more bowing segments will be possible; watch
    issuance is expected in the near term.

    DISCUSSION...MCS organization continues across central to eastern IA
    with multiple measured and estimated severe wind gusts noted over
    the past hour. Temperatures falling into the low 70s and upper 60s
    in the wake of the line of storms indicates that a strong/deep cold
    pool is becoming established. Recent high-res WoFS guidance has
    assimilated these recent convective trends well and depicts at least
    one, possibly two, more focused bowing segments emerging later this
    evening across central to northern IL with winds possibly up to 70
    knots. Additionally, favorable low-level wind shear (upwards of 30
    knots) within the 0-3 km layer should support the potential for
    embedded circulations with the line, especially north of any bowing
    segments. Downstream watch issuance is expected within the next hour
    to address this concern.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/15/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4q3S5HHOnN7Ttt2cpFCsQJSfe4O-GEYreB98h8fVpLJCaFZvCWOGADJJhjqhjWa1X5_QK-22i= RDFVx0IxCxPJIU25fg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 40199050 40828992 41758936 42448921 42748904 42908876
    42918805 42848760 42488718 41988681 41818664 41458661
    40978681 40608713 40348759 40068821 39818877 39818902
    39818934 39868975 39919006 39999029 40149049 40199050=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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