ACUS11 KWNS 132045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132044=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-132215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1597
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Areas affected...Southeast ND...northeast SD...northern/central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 132044Z - 132215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may develop by late afternoon or
early evening and move southeastward. Large hail, damaging wind, and
perhaps a tornado or two will all be possible.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus is gradually increasing this afternoon from
southeast ND into western MN, in the vicinity of a surface low and
related surface trough. Rich low-level moisture and rather strong
heating are supporting moderate to strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE
generally in the 2000-3500 J/kg range per recent objective
mesoanalyses. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will be sufficient for
storm organization, given the favorable instability in place.=20

Details regarding storm evolution remain uncertain this afternoon,
given the presence of multiple surface boundaries and only rather
subtle large-scale ascent in the short term. However, most guidance
suggests increasing potential for storm development by late
afternoon into the early evening from southeast ND into northwest
MN, as MLCINH continues to decrease. Initial supercell development
is possible, with a threat of hail, damaging wind, and possibly a
tornado or two. A tendency for upscale growth is expected later in
the storm evolution, which could eventually result in a
southeastward-moving MCS with a continued damaging-wind threat.

Timing of the primary severe threat remains uncertain, but watch
issuance will become increasingly possible across the region by late
afternoon into the early evening.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/13/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!80MgnkIka8jKxWQ0QNp0zi_eQDUuiJat952RnMtQGL_XMJUwQzzmUz0sW4AJT1hDvKQ6ZM6bx= t_m25lKNoYiv2kvhhs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 47059822 47769581 47839444 47369336 46789323 46219351
45549395 45429501 45569682 45989832 47059822=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)