ACUS11 KWNS 101840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101839=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-102045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1571
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Areas affected...North-central Pennsylvania into central New York

Concerning...Tornado Watch 517...

Valid 101839Z - 102045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues.

SUMMARY...Several discrete supercells in parts of central New York
will continue to pose a tornado risk over the next 1-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells are ongoing along a
north-south line just east of Rochester, NY. Low-level rotation has occasionally increases with some of these storms. Overall, storms
have not been overly intense, however, as only storms near Lake
Ontario have shown higher reflectivity to above 9 km (per MRMS).
This may be due in part to somewhat modest mid-level ascent and
weaker mid-level lapse rates. Mid-level ascent should at least
gradually increase through the day. Further, these storms will
encounter increasing unstable inflow air to the east where
temperatures have risen into the low 90s F. Some outflow from
convection farther east is noted on visible satellite that may
eventually impact some of this activity. Farther south into central Pennsylvania, convection has shown some increase in supercell
character over the last hour. These storms will also pose a risk for
tornadoes, though low-level shear is marginally weaker with southern
extent.

..Wendt.. 07/10/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-jgKYZzC_oeD8C1bMRaWzsErPt7ZYFal-3xmUqavzSSya9JUWK7XNij6y0vtlFUJp0X2EvWqk= i2sUNP8lgVwqY7t4QM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON 42207547 41787597 41357710 41087807 41287826 41617806
43017773 43357705 43437608 43207550 42777531 42207547=20


=3D =3D =3D
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