ACUS11 KWNS 101528
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101527=20
NYZ000-101830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1568
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Areas affected...much of central through northern New York State

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 101527Z - 101830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may develop supercell structure and pose
increasing potential for a couple of tornadoes across parts of the
Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley into the Adirondacks and Champlain
Valley vicinity through 2-6 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of a modest surface low associated with the
remnants of Beryl, boundary-layer destabilization is well underway
in response to insolation and moistening, across the Finger Lakes
and Mohawk Valley into Adirondacks. This is occurring beneath the
leading edge of notably warm and warming mid-level air (including
roughly the -6 C isotherm at 500 mb), which is forecast to continue
advecting northeastward across the lower Great Lakes and New England
through this afternoon.

As destabilization continues, thunderstorm probabilities appear
likely to increase this afternoon with gradually deepening
convective development. Deep-layer shear to the east of the lower
Great Lakes is already sufficient for the development of supercell
structures, with a belt of 30 kt flow around 850 mb enhancing
low-level shear across the southern tier of New York into areas
near/east of Lake Ontario, where modest clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs appear most conducive to the risk for a tornado or two,
in the presence of lower/mid 70s F dew points. Models suggest that
this environment will tend to shift from the lee of Lake Ontario
toward the Champlain Valley vicinity through 18-22Z.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 07/10/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7xlzVQ8pJjl_pwdQdz78HXOF5n9w0ziaxeWx6mm7AJ54EtQjsWchh8msiWPzaEzwhyJ2-mPJw= 9tUK8LZRr7CDuA46cc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 43267677 43767590 44597519 44787360 43387373 42897493
42607535 42457689 42977751 43267677=20


=3D =3D =3D
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