ACUS11 KWNS 080939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080938=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-081115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1556
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 080938Z - 081115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Several supercells have formed and may pose a large hail
threat for a few hours as they move east-southeast early this
morning.

DISCUSSION...Elevated supercells have developed across eastern New
Mexico as a mid-level trough approaches from the northwest. These
storms have developed in a region with modest, but sufficient
instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and moderate shear (35-40 knots) per
SPC mesoanalysis. Expect this environment to shift slowly east which
may allow for some stronger storms to persist into the western Texas
Panhandle near daybreak. MRMS MESH suggests 2+ inch hail is possible
in some of the larger cores. This seems significantly overestimated,
but some 1 to 1.5 inch hail is possible.=20

This threat is expected to be too isolated/short lived for a severe thunderstorm watch.

..Bentley/Smith.. 07/08/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9qsUb2D-F-jX3PwlEK6zTmbi5NrqtPRtC4zWTBySwa6aDc1htTIcPHEghCVsw4HrGP9whDWXr= 5IHXYFNKOPQnonBleE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35570484 35760425 35810385 35890317 35840283 35730246
35620235 34870217 34260236 34060288 34080368 34450457
34830486 35570484=20


=3D =3D =3D
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